BASRAH PC MEMBER'S NEW PARTY UNITES PROFESSIONAL, TRIBAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BASRAH 000086 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ IR SUBJECT: BASRAH PC MEMBER'S NEW PARTY UNITES PROFESSIONAL, TRIBAL LEADERS REF: A) BASRAH 00076; B) 06 BASRAH 00049 CLASSIFIED BY: Ramon Negron, Director, Regional Embassy Office Basrah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 6, REO met with Basrah Provincial Council (PC) member Seyid Baha Ahmed Jamal Al Deen. A former Da'wa party member, Baha elaborated on his new party, the "National, Independent, Goodwill and Reform Assembly." He speculated that independents would do well in the next elections but worried about funding and possible IHEC corruption. Baha supports the creation of a Basrah one-province region, though support is not unanimous within his party. He accused Iran of supporting a multi-province region in order to increase Badr influence in the province. End Summary. Public Leans Towards Independents -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Seyid Baha is the Chairman of the Provincial Council's Public Relations Committee and a close REO contact. He expressed optimism for the success of independent entities, including his own party, in the upcoming provincial elections. While acknowledging that competition with the Islamic parties has been "fierce," he declared that the public is leaning toward independents because, in part, they are "better qualified." ¶3. (SBU) According to Baha, candidates from his "National, Independent, Goodwill and Reform Assembly" party are well-qualified professionals from the ranks of lawyers, doctors, and teachers. The party has 27 candidates registered for the elections -- 18 men and nine women. Baha himself is the first candidate on the list. Sheikh Mansour Al Kanaan, a lawyer and influential leader of the Bani Tamim Tribe, is second (REF B). The candidates are running under the party slogan "Reconstruction and Employment." Baha added that, in meeting these two goals, the third goal of stability would be achieved. ¶4. (C) Seyid Baha lamented that some entities claiming to be independent were receiving financial and moral support from either Iran or the Gulf countries. The truly independent entities, like his own party, were forced to rely on their own resources. While he remains optimistic about his party's prospects, due to its "large base," he expressed a need for American help. Potential Election Fraud -------------- ¶5. (C) Baha worried that local elections would be plagued with corruption. He accused Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) Director Hazim Jodah of supporting ISCI and suspected that Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) staff would be working to advance his political agenda. He speculated that IHEC representatives, present at each polling station, might direct people to vote a certain way. He also feared that IHEC observers could recycle unused ballots or spoil legitimate ballots by adding additional marks. Although each party is entitled to send observers to monitor voting, Baha stressed that there were over 800 voting centers in Basra and that small parties would not have the numbers needed to cover them. Regions Formation Law -------------- ¶6. (C) Baha stated that Basrah Governor Mohammed Wa'eli's initiative to create a federal region in Basrah was gaining ground. While Baha supports a one-province region for Basrah, he feared that moving forward on it now would delay the elections. He noted that the local Iranian Consul was arguing for a multi-province region, suggesting that a single-province region would hurt the Shi'a. Baha commented that Shi'a are already weak in Basrah and he accused Iran of seeking a multi-province region to incorporate Basra into an area controlled by Badr from Najaf. ¶7. (C) Comment: A well-respected Shi'a Imam, Baha heads a charitable foundation and enjoys a good reputation among Basrawis. He is one of the few political moderates with significant influence on the Provincial Council. Up until now, however, he has been considered weak, due to his lack of political and financial backing. The addition of Sheikh Mansour should give his party significant strength. As the leader of one of the largest tribes in Basrah, former PC member, and owner of the "Al Ashar" newspaper, Sheikh Mansour's influence is considerable. The two do not agree on everything, however; while Baha supports the creation of a region for Basrah, Mansour does not (REF A). REO is planning a trip to Baha's school and foundation later this month. ¶8. (C) Comment, continued. Baha's assessment of GEO Director Hazim Jodah's political affiliations is not unfounded. Although Jodah has guarded his political beliefs in past meetings, he confirmed his preference for ISCI during an interview with the REO on November 5. End comment. NEGRON