SOUTHERN REGION FORMATION STILL ON BASRAWI MINDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000043 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/13/2018 TAGS: PGOV IR IZ SUBJECT: SOUTHERN REGION FORMATION STILL ON BASRAWI MINDS REF: A. A) BASRAH 9 ¶B. ( B) BASRAH 2 ¶C. (C) BASRAH 13 ¶D. ( D) BASRAH 41 BASRAH 00000043 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Howell Howard, Director, Regional Embassy Office Basrah, Dept. of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C//REL USA, MCFI) Summary: The formation of a southern Iraqi region is still on the agenda of many political actors in Basrah. With the exception of the Sunnis and staunch nationalists, the preponderance of Basrawis appears to favor a southern region in some form. ISCI's ultimate goal remains a nine-province region, but it has delayed work until after the provincial elections and may first support the creation of smaller regions in the South hoping to amalgamate them later. Fadhila still wants to turn Basrah into a region, but is waiting for ISCI to move first. Finally, the small Federal Democratic Iraqi Coalition wishes to create a region out of Maysan, Dhi Qar and Basrah. End Summary. WHY THE SOUTH WANTS A REGION -------------- ¶2. (C//REL USA, MCFI) According to numerous and varied sources, the preponderance of Basrawis favor the creation of a regional assembly. Several reasons are often cited for a southern region. There is a genuine and persistent resentment among southerners for the way Baghdad has transferred the South's resources - predominantly oil wealth and electrical power - to the North for several decades (and including PM Maliki's government). This sentiment is compounded by the recognition of the economic benefits that the Kurdish Regional Government has experienced since its formation. Southerners also want to redress decades of neglect to the South under the former regime, secure greater autonomy from Baghdad, and give political recognition to the cultural and religious homogeneity of the southern provinces. ISCI: STILL AFTER NINE PROVINCES -------------- ¶3. (C//REL USA, MCFI) The ISCI party leader in Basrah, Furat al Shar'a, told us on May 3 that ISCI still prefers forming a single region out of the nine provinces south of Baghdad, but elections had to come first. ISCI, recognizing they lack enough clout in several provinces, will not pursue a super province initially. Instead, ISCI will try to form smaller regions with the intention of amalgamating them later (Ref A). ISCI's first attempt at forming a region would likely comprise Babil, Qadisiyah, Najaf and Muthanna. ISCI would also support the efforts of other parties to amalgamate Basrah, Dhi Qar, and Maysan. ISCI remains opposed to Fadhila's plan to form a single-province region out of Basrah. FADHILA: BASRAH AS A PROVINCE REGION -------------- ¶4. (C//REL USA, MCFI) Fadhila has been laying the groundwork over the past couple of months to turn Basrah into a single-province region, but has also considered including Maysan and Dhi Qar. Governor Mohammed Wa'eli told us May 11 that Fadhila was collecting signatures to obtain the two percent threshold required for holding a region formation referendum (Refs B & C) and that he convinced local Sadrist leaders to support Fadhila's plan. However, Wa'eli also noted that Fadhila is delaying further action until after the elections unless ISCI attempts to form a region first. Fadhila continues to state that it seeks to deny ISCI - and thus Iran - a proxy state by making Basrah a region. Wa'eli opined that Basrawis would want to protect their control over the resources and therefore would oppose Basrah's amalgamation into a larger ISCI dominated region. SMALL PARTY GETS IN THE ACT -------------- ¶5. (C//REL USA, MCFI) The Federal Democratic Iraq Coalition (FDIC),a minor political party, is also intent on turning Basrah, Maysan and Dhi Qar provinces into a single region (Ref D). FDIC has organized a "Southern Tribal Council" of civil society groups, editors, artists, and intellectuals to lobby for a region. FDIC reasons that the South needs to become a region to protect itself from Iranian interference, separate it from the clerical influence of Najaf, and achieve some autonomy from Baghdad. FDIC selected these three provinces because they had the most in common culturally and economically, they suffered the most under Saddam Hussein, and three provinces would be easier to control than the nine-province region proposed by ISCI. According to other sources, the Kurds are funding the FDIC's efforts to provide political cover for their own region. Wa'eli also told us that CoR member and former Basrah Governor, Wa'el Abd al-Latif al-Fadel, has been working with "independent BASRAH 00000043 002.2 OF 002 entities" to collect signatures, but he was uncertain if Wa'el was working with FDIC. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C//REL USA, MCFI) It is unlikely that efforts to create a southern region, in one form or the other, will disappear soon. Aside from nationalists and Sunnis, the stiffest opposition would likely come from Prime Minister Maliki and his Dawa Party, who would not benefit from a region formation and lose influence over a portion of the country. Fadhila's delaying tactic is also likely due to our messaging that while this is ultimately an Iraqi decision, there are more pressing issues at this time for Iraq to deal with (elections, reconciliation, hydrocarbons law, etc.). Wa'eli told us most recently that the U.S. and UK both seemed to oppose region formation now; while we stressed again that it was an Iraqi decision, Wa'eli appears to be taking a lack of overt support as a reason to hold off for the moment. End Comment. HOWARD