REO BASRAH SITREP FOR APRIL 15, 2008

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BASRAH 000032 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/16/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINS ECIN IZ SUBJECT: REO BASRAH SITREP FOR APRIL 15, 2008 REF: A) BASRAH 29 B) BAGHDAD 1151 BASRAH 00000032 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Howell Howard, Director, Executive, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) Basrah REO situation report for April 15. ¶2. (S//REL MCFI) Summary: The situation in Basrah remains tense, but is gradually improving as Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) confront militias and assert governmental control. The ISF continue to execute the second phase of "Operation Charge of the Knights" (COKII) begun on April 12 by isolating Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) strongholds in Qibla, Hyyaniyah, Timinyah, and the Five-Mile districts. Encouraging signs: The ISF faced little resistance while clearing Qibla; JAM members are fleeing to Iran or north to Qurnah; barbers, alcohol and music vendors are emerging in areas the ISF controls; tips reporting JAM activities are flooding in as Basrawis become increasingly confident in the ISF and optimistic about the future; and the ISF are gradually building confidence. The IA face on the rescue of Richard Butler was a good news story. The next IA operational target may be Al Qurnah, to which Basrah City JAM fled and from which they now are fleeing to Iran. The Regional Embassy Office continues to bask in reduced IDF. Humanitarian needs are being met. End Summary. Charge of Knights II -------------- ¶3. (C//REL MCFI) The Battle of Basrah is not over. Stiff fighting is still expected in Hyyaniyah and Five-Mile. It is still too early to tell whether JAM members are fleeing to other areas to reinforce them or to temporarily hide and reemerge later. We also assess the confidence of the ISF to be highly dependent on the presence of U.S. and British Military Transition Teams (MiTTs) and U.S. air cover. We also hear that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's tribal initiative here is highly disorganized and tribal leaders are becoming frustrated with the GOI's failure to make due on its promises of support. Al Qurnah Next? -------------- ¶4. (S//REL MCFI) Looking ahead, several sources tell us that ISF plans are underway to clear Al Qurnah, which has seen a four-fold increase in JAM's presence since April 12, followed by a blocking operation. Comment: If true, the ISF would delay the highly anticipated fight in Hyyaniyah. This move, however, may help ensure that weapons and reinforcements are blocked from entering Basrah through the smuggling routes in Maysan. It would also give the ISF more time to pressure Hyyaniyah and prepare for operations there. End Comment. ¶5. (S//REL MCFI) Qurnah is about 70km NW of Basrah City center, close to the Iranian border and next to oil fields. Qurnah (Septel) town has been a historic JAM stronghold surrounded by the strong tribal identities of the Al-Batat and Garamshah tribes. An oil field contact reports that almost all JAM fighters have cached their heavy weapons and fled to Iran, intending to return after the IA makes its expected sweep through the town. Comparing this with other sources, perhaps many JAM fighters fled to Qurnah from Basrah City, and now are fleeing east the 25km to Iran. Quanah is astride one of the MSRs between Basrah through Al Amarah to Baghdad, and there have been numerous EFPs against Coalition movements. Contacts suggest that the Fadhila-infested Oil Protection Service may be cooperating with JAM in the emplacement of EFPs. JAM's flight and caches is an indication that what might appear to result in an IA clean victory in Qurnah may turn out to be hollow if the town is not garrisoned. ISF Leadership Changes -------------- ¶6. (C//REL MCFI) We previously reported that LTG Mohan Hafith Fahad al-Fariji, the Basrah Operations Commander, would be replaced by MG Abdel Aziz al-Ubaydi, but British and U.S. sources are now reporting that 14th IA Division Commander, MG Muhammed Jawad, will replace LTG Mohan while MG Abdel Aziz will take over 14th Division. We also hear that LTG Mohan may step down within 3-4 days. Police Chief MG Jalil Khalaf Shuwayl is also going to be transferred out within the month according to multiple sources. IP chief for southern Basrah, BG Youssef Raheem Jasim Youssef told us April 15 that the MinDef and MinInterior are reorganizing Basrah's police force under a single directorate with one sector covering the city and another responsible for the outlying sectors. He also said that the GOI is beginning to dismiss the current IP commanders and promoting up the Badr militiamen previously integrated into the ISF after the former regime's fall. ¶7. (S//REL MCFI) Comment: The dismissal of LTG Mohan is no surprise. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki widely criticized him for making accommodations with JAM (though Mohan would say he had little choice given the poor state of the ISF). However, the loss of MG Jalil is a mistake and there are serious concerns BASRAH 00000032 002.2 OF 003 about who his replacement might be. The IP was almost irreparably infiltrated by the militias, but despite that, Jalil has tried to take on the militias and enforce the law resulting in numerous attempts on his life, defended women's rights during a period of female murders, forced Provincial Council members to return IP vehicles and established ties to the Christian and Sunni communities. If the rumors are true that the GOI is increasing the influence of Badr-affiliated officers over the IP, it indicates that ISCI/Badr are trying to benefit politically from PM Maliki's decision to confront JAM in Basrah. The selection of Jalil's replacement, therefore, will be a critical decision. End Comment. IA Rescues Richard Butler -------------- ¶8. (S//REL MCFI) Kidnapped CBS reporter and British citizen Richard Butler was freed April 14 during an Iraqi Army (IA) operation. UK, U.S. and Iraqi authorities had been trying to secure Butler's release since he was kidnapped on February 10. Local and national television media covered General Mohan's triumphant meeting with Butler at the Basrah Palace. Although negotiations for a release were in the works, giving the IA the rescue mission in what was until then an intense UK negotiation and investigation effort was a confidence-building success story with an Iraqi face. Ports of Entry -------------- ¶9. (C REL MNF-I) Contacts at the Port of Umm Qasr (PUQ) report that the Iraqi Navy (IN) has taken over perimeter security for the facility from the Iraqi Army (IA). Contrary to earlier reporting, the IN elements are not re-patched IA soldiers but in fact IN sailors. Roughly 60 sailors are working at the south port and twice that number at the north port. Contacts advised that the sailors are generally well motivated but badly lacking in training and equipment to search vehicles and individuals entering the PUQ grounds. The sailors' lack of experience with their new mission has slowed the entry of vehicles and personnel to the port facility, creating longer lines at the entrances, but port operations are nonetheless proceeding as normal. General human traffic at the PUQ remains at roughly half its pre-"Charge of the Knights" level. Truckers continue to report that they are entering the PUQ without having to pay bribes. Coalition-managed security contractors will be working with the sailors to improve their effectiveness and efficiency. Developing uniform PUQ identification passes for vehicles and individuals will be a key priority, as will clearing an estimated 9,000 empty cargo containers littering the facility. ¶10. (S REL MNF-I) Security at land points of entry has improved. With Coalition support the ISF have installed the Personal Identification Secure Comparison and Evaluation System (PISCES) at Shalamshah on the Iranian border; a trained Iraq National Intelligence Service officer is operating the system in cooperation with the Coalition. Shalamshah remains generally closed to traffic, with an exception made for food and humanitarian goods. Overall traffic as Shalamshah has declined, but contacts report that Iranian lethal aid continues to cross with ID 30,000 (USD 25) bribes paid to Department of Border Enforcement guards. Security -------------- ¶11. (C) The security environment in Basrah, while still quite volatile, has seen positive changes in recent weeks. There are continuing reports of merchants returning to public sales of items such as alcohol once forbidden by JAM groups. Basrah Air Station (BAS),the site of Regional Embassy Office Basrah, has enjoyed a period of relative calm marked by a significant reduction in IDF attacks. RSO Basrah attributes the IDF reduction to the following factors: - US Air assets have engaged launch sites with lethal forces, killing several rocket teams and deterring many more. - Coalition reporting indicates ISF and supporting MiTTs have occupied many of the favored points of origin previously used by militia rocket teams. - Hundreds of JAM and JAM Special Group personnel have fled to Iran; JAM SG was largely responsible for the attacks against BAS. - JAM and JAM SG appear to be directing much of their attention and IDF attacks against the immediate threat of ISF operations in Basrah City. For example, the Basrah Operations Center (BOC) in the Sekek area of Basrah was recently attacked using IDF. ¶12. (S//REL MCFI) Basrah is showing indications of moving in the right direction but there is much more to be accomplished. The firing of hundreds of police officers was a very positive step in removing JAM or other undesirable elements from IP. That act alone significantly improved future prospects of using IP in support of diplomatic operations in and around Basrah City. Furthermore, ISF have begun to capture and hold major BASRAH 00000032 003.2 OF 003 routes through the city. However, much of Basrah remains in dispute while some areas remain firmly under control or influence of militia groups. Hundreds of IED emplacements and weapons caches continue to be reported by military and police units operating throughout the city. Humanitarian Situation -------------- ¶13. (U) MND-SE J-9 representative, who was in Al Qibla following the initial entry of ISF, reports people were in no rush for food and water when supply trucks arrived. Washington-based advocacy group "Refugees International" reported that Muqtada al-Sadr is providing life-support services in Basrah, characterizing OMS as the largest unofficial "humanitarian" organization. HOWARD