CAR NATIONAL DIALOGUE - OPENING DAY OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSIS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000236

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON EAID CT
SUBJECT: CAR NATIONAL DIALOGUE - OPENING DAY OBSERVATIONS, ANALYSIS

REF: BANGUI 234


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Central African Republic's 'Inclusive
Political Dialogue' began under the gavel of President Francois
Bozize and in the presence of Gabonese President Bongo, UN
Special Representative Francois Fall, and former Burundian
President and chosen Dialogue Mediator Pierre Buyoya. The
proceedings were covered live on television and radio. All of
the armed rebel groups pledged to renounce the use of force.
The high points of the day were a long rambling and ultimately
ambiguous speech by former President Ange-Felix Patasse and a
pair of speeches by President Bozize; conciliatory in French and
more aggressive in Sango. Interestingly, none of the civil
society or political opposition leaders was allowed to speak.
It is still very early in the process, but if this really
represents the end of armed conflict in the CAR, then it is a
tremendous step forward. END SUMMARY

SPEECHES


2. (SBU) Despite the selection of former Burundian President
Pierre Buyoya as mediator of the Dialogue, President Bozize, not
Buyoya, held the gavel on opening day and Buyoya was reduced to
the role of only one of many speakers.

- United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon's special
representative, Ambassador Francois Fall was the first to speak,
but only after being physically prevented by CAR Presidential
Protocol from crossing the stage and being obliged to descent to
the floor before passing in front of President Bozize to remount
to the speaker's podium on the other side. Fall read an
encouraging opening message from UNSYG Moon and returned to his
seat.

- Next to speak were the various armed groups, the UFDR, the
MLCJ, and the APRD, each of whom explicitly addressed President
Bozize as 'head of state.' This may, however, be more a matter
of local protocol than a formal acknowledgement of Bozize's
political legitimacy. They each went on to explicitly reject
violence, several using the same expression, 'bury the hatchet
of war.'

- Next to speak was former head of state Ange-Felix Patasse who
spoke in his characteristic, slow, emphatic style. He delivered
an hour-long, wide ranging speech which praised his `dear
brother' Bozize, gave thanks to the `God of Exiles,' praised the
`great hero of the Libyan Revolution,' cited U.S.
President-elect Obama as an inspiration for all Africans,
declared to applause that the Dialogue was not a `petit
bourgeois' exercise, and, to even more applause, that it was not
just about positions in the government. He went on to swear, in
front of the international community and the Central African
People, that he was back and at their service.


3. (SBU) President Bozize followed with remarks in both French
and Sango. His comments in French were anodyne and conciliatory,
stressing that the elections of 2005 existed, the CAR state
existed, the constitution existed, the national assembly
existed, the presidential majority existed and that none of
these institutions could be called into question. He then spoke
extensively in Sango, taking a very different tone in which he
expressed doubts about the results the inclusive political
dialogue could achieve. He reminded the audience of the various
similar political dialogues and fora held in this country
starting with the national seminar organized in 1980 after the
collapse of Emperor Bokassa. After 28 years of dialogue, where
are we? President Bozize asked. President Bozize's speech
focused on the need for this inclusive political dialogue to be
conducted within established institutions. Those familiar with
recent Central African political developments noted that
President Bozize resisted for a long time the idea of an
inclusive political dialogue before being finally forced to

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accept it under the combined pressure of the international
community and the rebel groups. President Bozize's suspicions
were evident in the tone and content of his remarks in Sango,
which were far from the conciliatory words of the French
version.

- Finally, President Bongo spoke, taking an extremely familiar,
avuncular style and stressing that the Central Africans had to
work things out for themselves.

OBSERVATIONS:


4. (SBU) Among the numerous speeches given at the opening
ceremony of the Inclusive Political Dialogue, three were
particularly awaited. They were Patasse's, Demafouth's and
Bozize's, given their past conflict and current tense
relationship. President Bozize has long opposed Patasse's and
Demafouth's participation in the inclusive political dialogue,
relenting only recently. No one else, not civil society, the
political opposition (UFVN),or the presidential majority, was
allowed to speak; the day was clearly all about the armed
groups, Patasse, Bozize, and, by implication, former president
Kolingba.


5. (SBU) After asking for forgiveness from the populations
affected by the military operations of APRD, Jean Jacques
Demafouth declared that the current inclusive political dialogue
was necessary to end the suffering of the population
('innocents') before suggesting that this forum produce two
major decisions. First of all, he demanded that a serious audit
take place of the country's economic management, particularly
the management of the parastatal companies and the forestry and
mining sectors. Secondly, the inclusive political dialogue's
resolutions should include the adoption of a common management
program for the country's development. NOTE: This approach is
directly connected to the UFVN's declaration issued the day
before the opening ceremony. UFVN members believe also that the
inclusive political dialogue should result in clear objectives
with precise strategy to deal with numerous political,
economical and social problems the country is facing. END NOTE


6. (SBU) Contrary to what many observers expected, Patasse's
speech was consensual. However, he lamented not having had a
separate preliminary meeting between Bozize, former President
Andre Kolingba (who stayed in Paris due to ill health),and
himself. Patasse felt that this tripartite meeting was
necessary to determine the causes of the military crisis, and
thus plan for their resolution. During his speech Patasse
recognized that each of them as president or former president
has a degree of responsibility for the current crisis.
Addressing President Bozize, Patasse said that he was sincere
and requested that Bozize recognize his own errors before the
nation. He concluded that the Inclusive Political Dialogue
should not be a trial or an occasion for dividing pieces of the
pie.


7. (SBU) It seems clear that much is happening behind the scenes.

-- Bozize and Bongo, at least, kept the group waiting for two
hours between the time of Bongo's arrival at the airport and
their arrival on the stage. The assumption is that they held a
private meeting.

-- At least one armed group and Patasse both quoted Ecclesiastes
- 'a time for war, a time for peace,' leading to questions of
coordination between the parties before the Dialogue.

-- Rumors abound that Bongo warned Demafouth and Patasse to
behave. There was also lots of discussion of alleged suitcases
of money provided by the Gabonese. The amount of the Gabonese
government's public contribution to the Dialogue elicited gasps

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from the crowd when mentioned.

-- There were rumors today that the political opposition (UFVN)
were boycotting the session as they had not been allowed to
speak. (Although they deny it, the UFVN has made no secret of
their desire to use the Dialogue as a vehicle to remove
President Bozize before 2010.)


8. (SBU) It is very early in the process to reach any
conclusions; still, if the Dialogue can really end the armed
rebellion on the opening day, it could represent real progress.
COOK ##