INSURGENTS PUSH THE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH-PROFILE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000845 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND DRL NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: INSURGENTS PUSH THE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH-PROFILE BOMBINGS REF: A. CHIANG MAI 00040 (PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL FROM NEW GOVERNMENT) ¶B. BANGKOK 00710 (PRISONER ABUSE ALLEGATIONS REPORTEDLY ON THE RISE IN SOUTHERN THAILAND) ¶C. BANGKOK 00628 (STATISTICS SUGGEST MILITANTS ARE GETTING MORE SOPHISTICATED) BANGKOK 00000845 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: A series of effective and high-profile bombings in the south since Saturday have caused significant alarm. Two explosions at a hotel in Pattani normally regarded as a safe zone, and a failed attempt to bomb possibly a religious gathering both occurred on Saturday evening (March 15). These were followed on March 17 by a motorcycle bomb exploding in front of a primary school in Yala, injuring a number of children. These attacks demonstrate that the militants' capacity to stage coordinated attacks has not diminished, despite some recent improvements in security in the region. Two veteran analysts of the conflict in southern Thailand believe the militants are planning a strong response to recent arrests made by the military, of which this was the opening salvo. End summary. ¶2. (C) On the night of Saturday, March 15, two bomb blasts at the C.S. Pattani hotel killed two people and injured thirteen, including the hotel owner, newly appointed Senator Anusart Suwanmongkhol. Embassy Human Rights Watch contact Sunai Phasuk, as well as a veteran journalist for "The Nation" newspaper, were in Pattani at the time of the blast. Both, for different reasons, were away from the hotel at the time the blast occurred. The C.S. Pattani was widely regarded by NGOs, foreign missions, and Thai government and security officials as a relatively safe area in this unstable region of southern Thailand. (The hotel, despite being used by many visiting officials, has escaped targeting by the insurgents almost entirely, perhaps because insurgents also found it useful to have a neutral venue where locals could meet with journalists and other visitors.) Sunai reported to Poloff that the bombing appeared well planned. A small bomb exploded in the toilet at the back of the restaurant in the hotel, making people run to the front of the building. A short time later, a car bomb exploded in front of the hotel's open-air tea room/lobby. According to press sources, the bomb was comprised of two canisters filled with 15 kg of explosives and placed in a car parked about 15 meters from the entrance to the hotel. The journalist said authorities believe Casio watches were used in the triggering mechanism. Another bomb found near by, which did not explode, may have been intended for first responders. Called Away From the Scene -------------- ¶3. (C) Sunai Phasuk reported that he and his team were called away from the hotel for an unplanned meeting that evening prior to the explosion. He feels extremely lucky - he was about one kilometer away when the bomb went off. He said others were called away as well, but would not elaborate on who they were except to describe them as his colleagues. (Note: The International Committee for the Red Cross maintains an office in the C.S. Pattani. According to the Director of the Bangkok Regional Delegation, two employees were in the office on upper floors of the hotel and several others were in the restaurant at the time of the attack. The director said all expatriate employees have been recalled to Bangkok. End note.) ¶4. (C) Sunai contends that this attack was one part of an operation that was intended to be much larger: an attack on a religious gathering of monks in Yala, and the burning of a school in Pattani. The attack on the gathering of monks failed when the vehicle carrying the bombs exploded prematurely, killing the driver. Sunai said the driver, named Salahuddin, was a well known bomb maker. Salahuddin BANGKOK 00000845 002.2 OF 002 has two brothers who are still at large with at least three 20 kg bombs, according to Sunai's sources. Also that night, a school in Saiburi district of Pattani province was burned, and a bomb exploded when first responders arrived to deal with the fire. Sunai said the tactic of placing a second bomb to target first responders had not been seen in a while. ¶5. (S) Sunai, who has contacts among the militants, said there was a gathering of BRN-C elders in Pattani last Wednesday. (Note: Sunai noted this was second hand information from one of his contacts - his contact did not attend the meeting. End note.) The meeting was to plan retaliatory attacks against the army for its sweep operations, and alleged assassinations of imams and cell leaders. He said "the attack on the C.S. Pattani is a spine-chilling symbol that a new wave of retaliatory attacks is coming." Sunai believes the insurgents went after these soft targets to stoke the anger and hatred that already exits between groups in the south. Had the bomb targeting the monks succeeded, it would have a dramatic effect on relations between Buddhists and Muslims. Sunai warned that the attack on the C.S. Pattani, long regarded as a safe haven for all sides, shows a new level of determination on the part of the militants. The New Generation Of Militants Doesn't Care -------------- ¶6. (C) In a separate conversation, a journalist with a long experience covering the South was equally shocked by the bombing of the C.S. Pattani. He believes the new generation of militants doesn't feel the same constraints as the old guard, and has no inhibitions about killing monks and imams. He said he had heard that the attacks were carried out by one militant cell, which operates out of the lower (southern) portion of Yala province. Authorities already have the names of three of the cell members. ¶7. (C) In a separate incident in Yala province, Yala Vice Governor Grisada Boonrach reported that on Monday March 17 a motorcycle bomb exploded in front of a primary school in Yala's Bannang Sata district. According to Grisada, 11 persons, mostly children, were injured. Grisada said there was a military guard in front of the school at the time of the explosion, and the bomb was detonated remotely. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Post will review its travel policies for the South in light of the latest attacks. These incidents appear to reflect an effort by the insurgents to make a very clear statement -- they will fight back hard to counter any small progress the military is making in improving security, and nothing is off-limits. As the failed bombing in Yala shows, however, the insurgents have some limits on their resources and skills, and may not be able to push back as hard they hope. JOHN