DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000384 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH SUBJECT: DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN THAILAND REF: A. BANGKOK 340 (AMBASSADOR MEETS SAMAK) ¶B. BANGKOK 282 (THE THAKSIN RESTORATION) ¶C. BANGKOK 276 (BIO OF SAMAK) BANGKOK 00000384 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet were inaugurated at the Palace on the afternoon on February 6; the ceremony marked the return of a democratically-elected government to office. Most Thais view Samak and his People's Power Party as beholden to deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, despite recent press accounts of Samak seeking to establish his independence. We have not detected military resistance to Samak and his party; we believe the current environment is not conducive to military intervention, and a top General told the Ambassador the Army was ready to work under Samak. Septel will provide further details on the new cabinet. End Summary. SAMAK TAKES CHARGE -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet took their oath of office before King Bhumibol in a Palace ceremony late in the afternoon of February 6. The inauguration marked both the return to power of a democratically-elected government and a return to influence for deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. ¶3. (C) Samak and his People's Power Party (PPP) campaigned in the December 2007 election as allies and followers of Thaksin, eager to continue the populist policies of his dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. The substantial plurality that PPP won reflected not only the effectiveness of the party's machinery, but also Thaksin's continuing appeal in much of Thailand, as well as widespread dissatisfaction with the interim government installed by the coup leaders. PPP officials could reasonably say the election provided them with a mandate to restore Thaksin to a position of influence, although this assertion in the current climate would unnecessarily antagonize Thaksin's foes. ¶4. (C) Although Samak was eager to present himself as Thaksin's follower during his campaign, he has more recently publicly asserted his independence. The local media has reported that Samak and Thaksin clashed over cabinet appointments; it remains unclear whether those stories are accurate or were planted to enhance Samak's credibility. Whatever the extent of the friction between the two men, leading politicians' recent travels abroad to call on Thaksin indicate their recognition of the deposed PM's continuing importance. Nevertheless, Samak may decide that he wants to use his newfound formal authority to advance not simply Thaksin's interests, but his own as well -- and his and his patron's agendas may increasingly diverge. NO SIGNS THE ARMY WON'T GO ALONG -------------- ¶5. (C) Pre-election speculation about whether the Army would tolerate a PPP administration has ended. In a significant difference from 2006, there seems now to be a widespread recognition, grounded in recent experience, that unelected, military-installed governments have no special capability to resolve the country's problems. We believe that, under current conditions, most of the political class, the business elite, and many average Thais who welcomed the coup in 2006 would not support another instance of military intervention in politics. PPP figures speak well of Army Commander Anupong Paojinda, both privately and publicly. ¶6. (C) Prime Minister Samak concurrently serves as Defense BANGKOK 00000384 002.2 OF 002 COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite the breadth of PPP's coalition, Samak's government faces numerous challenges ahead. Economic conditions are challenging; critics will dig for evidence of Thaksin's influence and decry it as inappropriate; there are important unresolved legal cases against PPP figures and some of its coalition allies (see ref B); and Samak's personality is not media-friendly. Nevertheless, the return to power of a democratically-elected government is a highly POSITIVE development, and we are encouraged to see no signs of open military resistance. JOHN