THAI UPDATE: KING ILL; DEMOCRATS PREPARE TO FORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003585 SIPDIS NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM TH SUBJECT: THAI UPDATE: KING ILL; DEMOCRATS PREPARE TO FORM NEXT GOVERNMENT REF: A. HOTR IIR 6 895 0082 09 ¶B. BANGKOK 3529 (PPP DISSOLVED) ¶C. BANGKOK 3492 (ARMY CHIEF URGES ELECTIONS) ¶D. BANGKOK 3386 (THAKSIN'S DIVORCE) ¶E. BANGKOK 3167 (THAKSIN CONVICTED) ¶F. BANGKOK 2327 (POTJAMAN CONVICTED) BANGKOK 00003585 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn and Princess Sirindhorn announced jointly on December 4 that King Bhumibol was too ill to deliver his annual address to the nation; subsequent reports from the Palace indicated the King was recovering. The Secretary General of Thailand's Democrat Party (DP), flanked by newfound allies, claimed publicly on December 6 that he had sufficient support to form the next government. The Democrats appear to have support from Newin Chidchob, a former Thaksin loyalist who is also an occasional key organizer of the "redshirt" pro-Thaksin protestors, as well as minor coalition partners. The Democrats have formally requested that the House of Representatives convene in order to elect the next Prime Minister, but it remains unclear when the House might come into session. The pro-Thaksin Puea Thai party elected a low-profile politician as its new leader, surprising those who expected a relative of Thaksin to take the helm. Thaksin's ex-wife, Potjaman Damapong, returned to Thailand on December 5 and may work to advance Thaksin's political interests. ¶2. (C) Comment: Despite early speculation that the King might have claimed ill health to avoid having to comment publicly on the recent anti-government protests, the specificity of Palace reports on the King's health, his recent frail condition, and reporting in other channels (ref A),lead us to believe he was genuinely ill. Further deterioration in the King's condition would have a dramatic impact on the nation. It remains unclear whether the Democrat-centered putative coalition is firm and will last until the House convenes to elect a new Prime Minister. We expect Thaksin and his operatives to try to knock the Democrats off track, although Thaksin's camp appears bereft of heavyweights who can assume formal roles in the political process. Various factors could account for the Democrats' newfound ability to draw support from other parties. Newin's shift to supporting the Democrats is significant not only because he represents a meaningful block of legislators in the Northeast, but also because pro-Thaksin street protests may be smaller and less effective without Newin's leadership. End Summary and Comment. KING'S HEALTH -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On December 4, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn and his sister, Princess Sirindhorn, appeared jointly before assembled dignitaries to announce that King Bhumibol was ill and unable to deliver his customary annual address to the nation. After the Crown Prince made brief remarks on the King's behalf, Princess Sirindhorn explained that her father had bronchitis, was exhausted, on an IV, and unable to eat. Subsequent official reports from the Palace indicated that the King suffered from a fever and had an infection, but by December 8 his condition was improving and he was able to eat soft food. ¶4. (C) Comment: The rivalry between the Crown Prince and Princess Sirindhorn is well known to Thailand's political class, and we believe this joint appearance sent a deliberate signal of Palace solidarity. While the Princess' briefing on the King's health was justified by her recent meeting with the King, we note that the Crown Prince served as the King's formal representative at the event. End Comment. DEMOCRATS UNVEIL COALITION -------------- BANGKOK 00003585 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) On December 6, Democrat Party (DP) Secretary General Suthep Thaugsuban, flanked by more than a dozen politicians from other political parties (including the recently-dissolved People's Power Party -- PPP -- and Chart Thai Party),announced a new coalition, claiming the support of 250 or more legislators. Attendees included Sanan Kachornprasart, one of the few senior figures associated with Chart Thai who were not disenfranchised as a result of the Constitutional Court's December 2 ruling (ref B),and a spokesman for the dozens-strong "Newin's Friends" faction of PPP, which is directed by Buriram politician Newin Chidchob. (Newin himself was one of 111 politicians banned from politics for five years when the Constitution Court dissolved the Thai Rak Thai Party in May 2007.) ¶6. (SBU) DP Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is the Democrat-centered coalition's candidate for Prime Minister. It is unclear whom the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party might propose as an alternative. The House has not yet set a date for an extraordinary session to elect a new Prime Minister. The Constitution stipulates that the House must elect a new Prime Minister within 30 days of former PM Somchai's December 2 removal from office. The election of a new PM could be derailed by House dissolution, but it is unclear whether an Acting Prime Minister has the authority to dissolve the House. ¶7. (C) Comment: The Democrat Party served as the sole opposition party during the pro-Thaksin Samak and Somchai administrations. The DP has two principal support bases: southern Thailand and Bangkok. Abhisit and many of his colleagues in DP leadership positions are Bangkok-born and foreign-educated; the DP is the party of choice of most members of the Bangkok-based elite. Accordingly, the DP has had difficulty appealing to rural voters in the North and Northeast, where local power-brokers fit a different profile. Although we have heard that Abhisit does not have close ties to senior Army leaders, in the context of the current polarization, both the Army and the DP appear solidly in the anti-Thaksin, royalist sympathizer camp. Likewise, although the DP has no formal connection with the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),and Abhisit personally rejects the PAD agenda, some DP officials have worked closely with the PAD, and minor PAD leader Somkiat is a DP MP. End Comment. PUEA THAI ELECTS NEW LEADERSHIP, SEEKS THIRD PARTY PM -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party (PT),which was formed as a backup vehicle in the event of the dissolution of the People's Power Party (PPP),on December 7 elected former Interior Ministry Permanent Secretary Yongyuth Wichaidit as its Party Leader, despite widespread speculation that a member of the Shinawatra family would hold this position. PT figures' public remarks have acknowledged the Democrats' success in attracting legislators formerly aligned with the PPP, but PT leaders proclaimed their intention to reassemble their coalition before the election of the next Prime Minister. In a sign of shifting dynamics away from the core pro-Thaksin circle, the PT abandoned earlier expectations that one of its own would be nominated as PM and indicated its candidate for Prime Minister would be Industry Minister Pracha Promnok, a retired Police General in a leading position with the Motherland Party; Pracha subsequently said publicly that he was not interested in receiving that nomination, however. It is not clear whom the PT currently intends to nominate as PM. ¶9. (SBU) Bio Notes: Yongyuth Wichaidit retired as Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Interior in 2002. He subsequntly served as Assistant Minister of Public Health (2003-2005),Advisor to the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives (2005-2006),and Advisor to the Minister of Interior (2008). He also served during his career as Governor of Trang province and Governor of Nakhon Si Thammarat province. He has never been elected to the parliament. He was born on July 15, 1942; he received his BANGKOK 00003585 003.2 OF 003 Bachelor's degree from Chulalongkorn University and his Master's Degree from the National Institute for Development Administration. He has also received a city planning certificate from a U.S. university (NFI). We do not know how fluently he speaks English. He is married and has a son and a daughter. End Bio Notes. ¶10. (C) Comment: The selection of Yongyuth as PT Party Leader and the initial effort to look outside of the party for a nominee as Prime Minister highlight PT's lack of prominent political figures and slipping leverage -- not surprising, given that two successive party executive boards have been disenfranchised by Constitutional Court rulings. Defectors from the pro-Thaksin camp to a Democrat-led coalition could be motivated in part by the relative inexperience of PT's formal leadership. Having seen the harmful impact of recent anti-government protests, they might hope that a Democrat-led administration can calm the situation and engender greater stability. The views of the private sector, which has come out decisively in favor of a Democrat-led government in recent days, may have also played a role. The move toward the Democrats might also reflect military influence, as alleged by some Thaksin loyalists; an Army spokesman denied the military was pressuring politicians, but Army Commander Anupong Paojinda has made clear his antipathy for the last pro-Thaksin PM (ref C). Finally, the Democrats' success in coalition building could reflect disarray and/or a lack of resources in the pro-Thaksin camp. End Comment. POTJAMAN RETURNS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Thaksin's ex-wife, Potjaman Damapong, returned to Thailand on December 5. Potjaman had fled abroad while she and her husband were on trial in connection with her purchase of land from a quasi-government body. Potjaman was subsequently acquitted in that case (ref E). She remains free on bail while appealing an earlier tax evasion charge (ref F). ¶12. (C) Comment: Subsequent to our reporting on Thaksin and Potjaman's divorce (ref D),one of the couple's lawyers credibly assured us that the divorce was strictly a legal ploy to protect the couple's assets, which were primarily in Potjaman's name. The lawyer dismissed speculation that the divorce was driven in part by Thaksin's close relationships with other women, telling us that Thaksin remained enamored with Potjaman and called her many times per day. There is ample open source speculation that Potjaman will lead political maneuvers on behalf of Thaksin's interests; we consider this speculation credible. JOHN