BANGKOK ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS END (FOR NOW);

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003541 SIPDIS NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER AND LIZ PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC EAIR ECON EINV TH SUBJECT: BANGKOK ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS END (FOR NOW); AIRPORTS REOPENING REF: A. BANGKOK 3529 (COURT DISSOLVES PPP) ¶B. BANGKOK 409 (NEW THAI CABINET) BANGKOK 00003541 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b and d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) The anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on December 3 ended its protests at Bangkok's airports and has withdrawn its guards from the Government House compound, following the December 2 Constitutional Court ruling that dissolved the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) (ref A). Some limited Thai Airways flights resumed into and out of Suwannaphum Airport later December 3. A PAD co-leader promised to resume protests, however, if the House seeks to promote the interests of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, either by amending the Constitution or by electing a pro-Thaksin PM. The governing coalition appears intact and able to elect a pro-Thaksin PM; the House is scheduled to meet on December 8 for this purpose. King Bhumibol walked unassisted and stood for an extended period of time but appeared frail during his December 2 appearance at the yearly parade in honor of his upcoming December 5 birthday, the National Holiday. ¶2. (C) Comment: Most Thai opinion-makers recognize the significant damage that the PAD protests have caused to Thailand's economy and international image. Few are bluntly criticizing the PAD in public, however, likely because of a perception that the PAD, reckless though it may be, has support from the Queen and others in high positions such as Privy Council President Prem, and because many share the PAD's anti-Thaksin political goals. We believe that the PAD's leadership is not cohesive, and some are aware that many who support their goal did not approve of their recent tactics. While we do not anticipate a PAD return to the airports, we have no reason to believe that PAD will prove more restrained in the future. If the legislators from the disbanded PPP move en masse to the designated pro-Thaksin vehicle, the Puea Thai party, they will surely continue to take direction from Thaksin and could select a hard-liner as the fourth Thai Prime Minister to hold office in 2008. End Summary and Comment. PROTESTS END, TOKEN FLIGHTS RESUME -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Supporters of the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) on December 3 withdrew peacefully from Bangkok's airports. PAD guards also departed from the Government House compound, ending a three-month occupation of the site. PAD co-leader Sondhi Limthongkul late on December 2, citing the Constitutional Court's dissolution of the People's Power Party (PPP) earlier that day, announced the end of all PAD protests. Sondhi threatened a resumption (although without specifying a venue) in the event that loyalists of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra establish a "proxy" government or seek to amend the Constitution in order to further Thaksin's interests. ¶4. (SBU) Airport officials began to inspect their facilities on December 3, and some Thai Airways commercial flight service at Suvarnabhumi has already resumed. United has informed customers it plans its first flight out of Suwannaphum the morning of December 5; Northwest plans an inbound flight on December 5 and outbound on December 6. TSA is in discussion with U.S. carrier representatives and will inspect Suvarnabhumi December 4. (More aviation details septel.) The extent of the damage to Thailand's economy and tourist and investment image from the airport seizure remains unclear, but there is a widespread consensus that it is significant. The RTG has not yet assessed the physical damage to Government House facilities. It is unclear what BANGKOK 00003541 002.2 OF 003 criminal complaints, if any, might be filed against PAD figures and supporters for the effects of their protests. HOUSE PLANNING TO ELECT A NEW PM -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The dissolution of PPP, Chart Thai (CT),and Matchima Thippathai has resulted in 14 PPP and 19 CT legislators losing their seats in the House of Representatives. (note: No Matchima party executives held House seats.) Not all will be replaced before the next general election; one PPP MP (Somchai Wongsawat) and three CT MPs had been elected through the party list system, and Article 109 (2) of the Constitution indicates those four seats ought not to be re-filled. According to Article 109 (1),by-elections for the 29 remaining vacant seats, which were held by MPs elected through the constituency system, should take place within 45 days. ¶6. (SBU) The House currently consists of 447 MPs. Of these, 165 are members of the Democrat Party, the sole opposition party. The rest are positioned as follows: - Former PPP: 218 (49 percent) - Motherland Party: 24 (5 percent) - Former CT: 15 (3 percent) - Former Matchima: 11 (3 percent) - Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana: 9 (2 percent) - Pracharaj: 5 (1 percent) ¶7. (SBU) Leading figures associated with Chart Thai and Matchima said publicly that their MPs -- like their PPP counterparts -- would remain together in new political vehicles that would represent the reincarnation of the dissolved parties. Despite well-known factionalism in PPP, there is no indication that MPs formerly belonging to PPP will decline to join the Puea Thai (For Thai) Party, which was established as a backup vehicle in the event of PPP dissolution. ¶8. (SBU) The House plans on taking advantage of a previously scheduled session starting on December 8 to elect a new Prime Minister. Speculation has focused principally on the following MPs, formerly belonging to PPP: - Former police officer Chalerm Yoobamrung; - Former Deputy PM Mingkwan Sangsuwan; and - Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Viriyachai. ¶9. (C) Comment: None of these three figures is particularly impressive, and none would have had a chance of becoming Prime Minister in the environment prevailing prior to the 2006 coup. As we have reported previously (see ref B), Chalerm has a highly negative reputation, and his designation as the Puea Thai candidate for PM could re-energize Thaksin's opponents. End Comment. KING BHUMIBOL ATTENDS HIS YEARLY PARADE, FEW AMBASSADORS DO -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) The Ambassador on December 2 attended the annual military parade in honor of King Bhumibol's upcoming birthday. At the ceremony, the King was able to walk unassisted and to stand for an extended time. He appeared frail, however, and was unable to extend his arm in a full salute to parading soldiers. His voice sounded firm when he spoke. His public remarks -- a brief, formal response to the military's annual re-assertion of its oath of loyality to him -- made no reference to the political stalemate. His much anticipated annual national address is scheduled for the afternoon of December 4. ¶11. (C) Note: Many Ambassadors to Thailand chose not to attend the parade; attendance from European and even ASEAN BANGKOK 00003541 003.2 OF 003 countries was sparse. We understand from European and Australian counterparts that their absences were motivated by a desire not to be seen as engaging in ceremonial duties while their nationals sought assistance in departing the country, as well as to send a signal that they were displeased with the handling of the crisis that had inconvenienced so many foreigners in Thailand. The absent dean of the diplomatic corps, the Philippines' Ambassador, was leading a 10 hour bus convoy of 450 stranded Filipino nationals to Chiang Mai to catch a charter flight home. JOHN