C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003491

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018
TAGS: ECIN PREL PGOV ASEAN TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND PREPARES FOR ASEAN SUMMITS AMIDST
POLITICAL CRISIS

REF: 08 STATE 123211

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Classified By: Political Counselor George Kent, Reason 1.4 (B, D)

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Thailand will be ready for the ASEAN Summit meetings
December 15-18, MFA Deputy Director General for ASEAN Affairs
Manasvi Srisodapol told us on November 25 when we met to
discuss the upcoming ASEAN and related summits (reftel).
ASEAN Secretary General and former Thai Foreign Minister
Surin Pitsuwan expanded this year's meetings to include an
ASEAN-United Nations Summit with UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon, and an "ASEAN Global Dialogue" to which the heads of
the UN, WTO, IMF, ADB, and several relevant UN agencies have
been invited. Manasvi welcomed the US presence at the
Summit. The RTG continued its push to have the parliament
approve conventions and agreements expected to be signed or
announced during the Summit, with more than 30 documents
anticipated to be signed by ASEAN leaders. Summit
discussions will touch on the future ASEAN community, the
ASEAN Human Rights Body, trade and investment agreements, the
global financial crisis, Burma, and North Korea.


2. (C) Comment: The latest phase in the ongoing Thai
political crisis, which closed Bangkok's international
airport November 25-26, has the potential to affect Summit
planning. The airport closure forced the plane carrying
ASEAN SecGen Surin to turn back to Jakarta late November 25;
Surin suggested to a close Thai friend that the Thai
Government may be forced to consider postponing the summit.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

ASEAN Summit Still on Track, For Now
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3. (SBU) We raised reftel issues with Deputy Director General
for ASEAN Affairs Manasvi Srisodapol on November 25. He
remains hopeful that the country will be able to successfully
host the various ASEAN-centered Summits in December despite
Thailand's ongoing political crisis. Prime Minister Somchai
Wongsawat chose to shift most meetings to Chiang Mai, a

stronghold for his People's Power Party, in hopes that the
northern city would provide a more secure environment for the
visiting heads of government, given the political unrest in
Bangkok. However, the ASEAN-UN summit and Global Dialogue
would occur in Bangkok December 17-18 to accommodate an
Audience with King Bhumibol Adulyadej.


4. (C) According to Manasvi, the agenda remains very fluid,
changing nearly every hour. While the specific topics for
the various forums are still undecided, Manasvi said he
expects the Summit to follow the traditions of years past.
Many of the key political issues will be discussed during the
informal working dinner on December 15. Note: The ASEAN
Business and Investment Summit, as well as an outreach event
with civil society representatives, will be held in Bangkok
from December 13 to 15, immediately prior to start of the
Chiang Mai Summit.

US Presence Welcomed at ASEAN, Russians in 2009?
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5. (C) Manasvi praised Ambassador Scot Marciel's plan to
participate in the ASEAN Summit. Manasvi noted that while
Ambassador Marciel and other dialogue partners' ambassadors
to ASEAN will be invited to the opening ceremonies on the
first day and the gala dinner on the second night, he expects
ASEAN Secretary General Surin to expand the invitations to
other non-summit events as well. Manasvi also hopes that the
United States would consider an ASEAN-US Summit in 2009
during the Thai Chairmanship, extending an informal
invitation to President-elect Obama.


6. (SBU) Manasvi professed surprise at reports from APEC in
Peru that PM Somchai had invited Russian President Medvedev
to attend a Russian-ASEAN summit in Thailand, since Russian
officials had told the Thai earlier in 2008 that Medvedev
would be busy with "immediate neighbors" initially. Manasvi

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said that the MFA had been looking to a possible
ASEAN-Russian summit in 2009 and speculated Somchai's invite
concerned next year.

RTG Push to Approve ASEAN Documents Prior to Summit
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7. (SBU) Under the new Constitution's Article 190, any
foreign negotiations, agreements, or treaties require prior
endorsement from parliament. After People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) protestors blocked legislators from attending
a November 24 meeting to consider the various accords, the
RTG and parliament agreed to hold a special legislative
session on December 8 and 9 to approve the ASEAN-related
agreements. Manasvi told us that the Ministries of Foreign
Affairs and Commerce actively lobbied within parliament to
have all of the documents approved in the larger body,
without seeking prior subcommittee approvals. Manasvi said
that opposition party leader Aphisit Vejajiva is working with
the government to ensure passage of the ASEAN documents
during the December 8-9 special session. If Thailand failed
to secure parliamentary approval, the agreements would go
forward on an "ASEAN minus X" basis.


8. (SBU) More than 30 documents are expected to be signed,
approved, or noted by the leaders of ASEAN and its partners
during the three summits. Manasvi mentioned the following
agreements, and said that he had urged interagency colleagues
to provide clear summaries to parliamentarians, offer
seminars, and post information on websites in an effort to
address the transparency concern at the heart of Article
190's intent:

- Roadmap for the ASEAN Community
- Millennium Development Goals for ASEAN
- ASEAN Political-Security Community Blueprint
- ASEAN Social-Cultural Community Blueprint (2009-2015)
- ASEAN 3 on Food Security and BioEnergy Cooperation
- EAS Disaster Management
- Food Security in the ASEAN Region
- ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA)
- ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA)
- ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement
- ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement
- ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program
- ASEAN-China Center
- Thailand's accession to the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement
- ASEAN-China Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade
- ASEAN-China Agreement on Intellectual Property Cooperation
- ASEAN 7th Package of Commitments under the ASEAN Framework
- Mutual Recognition Agreement on Good Manufacturing Practice
of Medicinal Products

Human Rights Body Negotiations to Continue into 2009
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9. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will alert
Parliament about the Framework for the ASEAN Human Rights
Body, which will develop according to an "evolutionary
process." Thailand hopes to have Terms of Reference approved
by Ministers in July and the body "launched" by the 2009
ASEAN Summit. However, Manasvi doubts that the body would be
operational or staffed by that time.

ASEAN Trade and Investment Agreements
--------------


10. (SBU) One of the more important economic deliverables for
Thailand at the ASEAN Summit would be to join the ASEAN-Korea
Free Trade Agreement. Thailand was the only ASEAN nation to
not join the agreement when it was first signed in 2006.
Korea is Thailand's eighth largest trading partner,
representing more than $7 billion in bilateral trade
annually. Thailand had expressed concerns about Korea's
treatment of agricultural products, particularly rice and
livestock, but the two countries were able to reach an
agreement in 2007. However, a parliamentary blessing is
required in order for Thailand to join the FTA.


11. (SBU) Other significant trade and investment agreements

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that will be forwarded to the parliament for approval prior
to the Summit include the ASEAN-India Goods agreement, the
ASEAN-China Investment agreement, the ASEAN-Australia-New
Zealand FTA, the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, and the
ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement. The Ministries of
Foreign Affairs and Commerce have both expressed concern
about the potential ramifications on Thailand's economy if
the government does not receive the required Article 190
approvals.

Protecting ASEAN from the Global Financial Crisis
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12. (C) Manasvi anticipated that ASEAN will finalize the
strengthening and expansion of the Chiang Mai Initiative
(CMI), a pool of bilateral currency swaps created during the
1997 Asian Financial Crisis. The proposed plan, approved at
the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Beijing in October, would
turn the Initiative into an $80 billion multilateral facility
to stave off any negative effects from the global financial
crisis. The expanded CMI would include the ASEAN 3 partner
countries (China, Japan, and Korea), and would allow member
countries who are experiencing financial difficulties to
borrow foreign currency from another member to augment its
own foreign reserves, without seeking the assistance of
international lenders like the International Monetary Fund.

Regional Cooperation: Burma and North Korea
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13. (C) According to Manasvi, an ASEAN team is negotiating
the final details of the post-Nargis recovery plan in Rangoon
with the goal to present the plan at the Summit. Manasvi
also expects Burma to be a significant topic of discussion
with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon during the ASEAN-UN
Summit. Manasvi said that the Tripartite Core Group,
composed of ASEAN, UN, and Burma, remains the only positive
channel to engage Burma with the international community, but
he acknowledged it was unclear how Burma viewed the
tripartite mechanism. According to Manasvi, ASEAN supports
the UN role to promote democracy and the reconciliation
process.


14. (C) Manasvi told us that Prime Minister Somchai would
include North Korea security issues in the Chair's Statement
at the ASEAN 3 meetings. The 3 partners (China, Korea, and
Japan) have encouraged Thailand to do so, but Thailand will
likely deliver a "soft" message. Manasvi noted that Thailand
would like North Korea to join the ASEAN Regional Forum
Ministerial in July, and therefore, does not want to deliver
an overly critical statement.

Increasing ASEAN's Capacity
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15. (C) Thailand is very supportive of ASEAN Secretary
General Surin's efforts to address resource constraints at
the ASEAN Secretariat. Thailand is well aware of the budget
concerns from some of the less developed ASEAN members and
supported Surin's three-year timeline for restructuring.
Manasvi also informed us that an ASEAN selection panel would
meet within the next week to appoint new Deputy Secretary
General positions -- one position would be responsible for
the ASEAN Economic Community plans, and the second position
would oversee community affairs. These would be in addition
to the current Deputy Secretary General positions that focus
on political and social affairs.
JOHN