INTERPRETING FORMER PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003386

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: INTERPRETING FORMER PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN'S
DIVORCE

REF: A. BANGKOK 3280 (THAKSIN ADDRESSES RALLY)

B. BANGKOK 3167 (THAKSIN CONVICTED)

C. BANGKOK 2427 (THAKSIN FLEES ABROAD)

D. BANGKOK 2327 (POTJAMAN CONVICTED)

E. BANGKOK 2243 (THAKSIN PREDICTS LIFE ABROAD)

F. BANGKOK 1290 (DINNER WITH THAKSIN)

G. 07 BANGKOK 3276 (FROZEN ASSETS)

H. 07 BANGKOK 2280 (WINAI ON POLITICS)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) A spokesman for former Prime Minister Thaksin told the
media that Thaksin and his wife, Potjaman, divorced in Hong
Kong on November 14. Most Thais believe the divorce was
driven by tactical considerations. An advisor to the Prime
Minister told the Ambassador that Thaksin now "can go full
speed ahead" in his political efforts, which have become more
aggressive in recent days. There has long been widespread,
credible speculation about Thaksin having extra-marital
affairs, which may also have been a factor.


2. (C) Comment: The simplest explanation for the divorce may
be the most reasonable. There likely was more than a grain
of truth to the stories of Thaksin's philandering, and the
stress of life as a fugitive abroad may also have taken a
toll on Thaksin's marriage. That said, we do not doubt that
Thaksin and Potjaman will attempt to take whatever advantages
they can from their divorce, which might prevent property in
Potjaman's name from being seized by the state if Thaksin is
convicted in corruption cases proceeding in civil court.
Whatever factors underlay the divorce, Thaksin's political
efforts have become more aggressive recently, and, although
recent royal cremation rites provided a pause in the strife,
reconciliation between the pro- and anti-Thaksin camps seems
a distant prospect. End Summary and Comment.

DIVORCE IN HONG KONG
--------------


3. (C) November 14-16 funeral rites for Princess Galyani
Vadhana, King Bhumibol's elder sister, drew tens of thousands
of Thai mourners; political rhetoric cooled somewhat, the
local media reported extensively on Galyani's life, and a
majority of Thais on the streets dressed in the mourning
colors of black, grey and white. While the funeral was
without question the local media's lead story, the clear
runner-up was the divorce of former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra and his wife, Potjaman. According to Thaksin's
Bangkok-based spokesman, the couple signed divorce documents
at the Thai Consulate in Hong Kong on November 14. On
November 15, the Ambassador, attending a cremation ceremony
for the Princess, spoke with an advisor in the Office of the
Prime Minister, who assessed the divorce as a purely tactical
maneuver. The advisor said that Potjaman, having severed her
legal tie to Thaksin, would now have more flexibility to
address her own financial and legal concerns, including her
appeal of a Criminal Court conviction for tax evasion (ref
D). The advisor said that Thaksin now "can go full speed
ahead" in furtherance of his political agenda, without
concern for the impact his activities may have on his wife or
children.


4. (SBU) Note: Potjaman was allowed to post bail after her
tax evasion conviction; her flight abroad -- ref C --
appeared to be in anticipation of a conviction in the
separate Ratchadapisek land case, in which she wound up
acquitted, though Thaksin was convicted -- ref B. It is
unclear whether Potjaman's flight from prosecution in the
latter case would prompt her detention should she return to
Thailand.


5. (C) Separately, a senior Thai diplomat also confirmed to
the Ambassador that the Shinawatras divorced in Hong Kong;
the senior diplomat told the Ambassador that he shared the

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widespread assumption that the divorce was driven by legal
and political concerns. Numerous pundits have speculated
that the divorce may help protect some of the couple's assets
(whichever ones can be determined to be the separate property
of Potjaman) against seizure in the event of adverse court
rulings against Thaksin. Recently, a member of Thaksin's
legal team told us that new civil court cases relating to
alleged corruption are proceeding against Thaksin; unlike
criminal cases, civil cases can be initiated while the
defendant is in absentia. Most of the couple's assets in
Thailand remain frozen since mid-2007 (ref G).

ON THE POLITICAL OFFENSIVE
--------------


6. (C/NF) The divorce comes in the midst of intensifying
political activity by Thaksin. On November 1, he addressed
(by phone) a rally of his supporters in Bangkok, making
remarks that some considered inflammatory and potentially
damaging to the King (ref A). Thaksin subsequently promised
publicly to identify his principal adversaries by name,
prompting further concern by his opponents about the
possibility of attacks on the monarchy. Thaksin may have a
greater incentive to try to bring about political change in
Thailand following the recent revocation of his and
Potjaman's UK visitor's visas, which left the couple without
a known place of abode. (Note: Some press speculation
indicated that the divorce might facilitate Potjaman's return
to London; however, we understand that Potjaman's
ineligibility for a British visa is based on her conviction
for tax evasion, not on her family tie to Thaksin. End Note.)


7. (C) By all accounts, Potjaman actively participated in
decisions concerning government resources during Thaksin's
time in office, from 2001-06. Now, however, there are
indications that the couple's marriage may have been strained
by his post-coup determination to be involved in politics,
against her wishes. In April 2007, a leading General told
the then-Ambassador that Thaksin had written in a letter to
the King that he would stay out of politics, at least in part
because Potjaman would divorce him were he to return to
political life (ref H). During an April 2008 dinner hosted
by the Ambassador (ref F),Thaksin, in his wife's presence,
alluded to Potjaman's desire that he quit politics, in part
because of the severe strain it was putting on their
marriage. He even joked that his wife had threatened to
leave him if he didn't pull completely out of politics.
Thaksin made the same claim to the Ambassador again in a
private meeting at the Residence in July (ref E),although
absent the humorous tone.


8. (C) The Shinawatras' marriage has long been under stress,
according to multiple contacts. After the couple returned
from abroad in early 2008, a leading Democrat Party official
told us of discord between the two, saying that they
maintained separate residences in Bangkok. A Thaksin
associate confirmed to us months ago that the couple -- then
in Thailand -- no longer slept under the same roof, but our
contact attributed that to security concerns rather than to
marital friction. During the November 15 cremation
ceremonies, the Ambassador's wife spoke with Prime Minister
Somchai Wongsawat's wife, Yaowapa (sister of Thaksin),who
seemed genuinely distressed by news of the divorce. (Note:
Tales of marital discord may resonate with Yaowapa; recently,
anti-government figures publicly released video footage of
Somchai in the company of an unidentified young woman and
implied that the two were romantically linked. End Note.)

CREDIBLE RUMORS OF PHILANDERING
--------------


9. (C) When Thaksin was in London in the period between the
2006 coup and the 2007 election, he openly cavorted with a
20-year-old Thai singer named Saanrat Wisutthithadato, aka
"Lydia." Speculation about the nature of this relationship
led the singer to deny publicly that the two were having
affair. Previously, widespread rumors also alleged that

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Thaksin fathered the youngest child of Thai Rak Thai
politician Sudarat Keyuraphan, and that he impregnated former
Thai Rak Thai legislator Nahathai Thewphaignarm, who felt
compelled to abort the pregnancy after a confrontation with
Potjaman. Nahathai held a tearful press conference to deny
the alleged pregnancy and the relationship.
JOHN