PRIVY COUNCILOR PREM SAYS SITUATION CALM; ARMY TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003251 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PBTS TH CB SUBJECT: PRIVY COUNCILOR PREM SAYS SITUATION CALM; ARMY TO STAY ON THE SIDELINES BUT SURPRISED BY CAMBODIAN ACTIONS BANGKOK 00003251 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reasons 1.4 (b) and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Privy Council Chair Prem Tinsulanonda told the Ambassador October 29 that the political situation was getting calmer and that he was not worried about a planned November 1 rally by pro-Thaksin supporters. In a separate October 29 meeting, Deputy Army Commander General Jiradej Kotcharat agreed with the Ambassador that the Army would serve the country best by allowing political situation to be resolved through the democratic process. Jiradej also told the Ambassador that Thai and Cambodian military commanders along the disputed border with Cambodia were committed to avoiding future clashes. ¶2. (C) Comment: Prem's welcomed views about a calming situation come against the backdrop of considerably fewer rumors of a coup in recent days and less fiery public rhetoric from all sides of the political conflict. We are also reassured by continued Thai Army insistence that the military would not become involved in politics, though the wildcard remains unanticipated violence/bloodshed that could be sparked by armed thugs in the street on both sides (People's Alliance for Democracy - PAD - and United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship - UDD). Army Commander Anupong designated Jiradej to meet with the Ambassador because of Anupong's desire in recent weeks to stay entirely out of the political and diplomatic realm. That Jiradej openly expressed Thai Army commitment to allowing the current conflict to be resolved through democratic means is reassuring, given that he was a close aide to former Thai Third Army Region Commander General Saprang Kalayanaramitra, who was active in the September 2006 coup. End Summary and Comment. PREM SAYS SITUATION CALM -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador and British Ambassador Quayle met Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda and the King's Deputy Private Secretary Ambassador Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn for lunch October 29. Prem said the political situation was currently calm and predicted it would remain that way. Prem also said he was unconcerned about the planned November 1 UDD rally despite reports that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would address via telephone a large number of pro-government supporters who plan to gather in a Bangkok sports stadium. Even though he expected the weekend to pass peacefully, Prem agreed with the Ambassador that the leaders of the UDD and their PAD rivals had raised tensions to the point that the supporters in the two groups could may easily take actions that could inadvertently spark a violent confrontation. (Note: overnight on October 30 at about 0320, an unidentified party threw a grenade into a group of PAD supporters, injuring at least eight). ARMY SEES NO ROLE FOR MILITARY IN POLITICAL CONFLICT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) During a subsequent October 29 meeting with Royal Thai Army Deputy Commander General Jiradej Kotcharat, the Ambassador stressed that the current political situation should only be resolved through the democratic process. Jiradej agreed and told the Ambassador that the Army viewed the current situation as a political rivalry between supporters of Thaksin and those who opposed the former Prime Minister. As this was a political conflict, the Army saw no role for itself other than to assist the police in maintaining order if a violent confrontation broke out and the police were unable to control the situation. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador emphasized to Jiradej that he believed that in every crisis there was an opportunity. With the political crisis based on a deep-seated rivalry between anti-Thaksin groups, with the PAD as themost public face, BANGKOK 00003251 002.2 OF 002 and Thaksin supporters, the Thai Army had so far maintained an important role by keeping the conflict within the political realm. The Thai Army would perform a very productive role in facilitating an environment for political resolution by allowing democratic institutions to more strongly define themselves and their role in resolving the crisis. The Thai general election in December 2007 was not sufficient to bridge the political divide; rather more time was needed to work out the political difficulties, the Ambassador said. With the Army on the sidelines, democratic institutions such as political parties, civil society, the courts, and the media could mature and strengthen. The coup of 2006 only delayed this maturation process, andQother coup would further set back democratization. Jiradej said he fully agreed and told the Ambassador that despite attempts by many sides to draw the Army into the conflict, Army Commander General Anupong Paochinda and other senior Thai Army leaders were committed in their belief that the only wQto resolve the situation was through the political process. There would be no military involvement, Jiradej stated. BORDER CLASH WITH CAMBODIA "ACCIDENTS" -------------- ¶6. (C) Jiradej told the Ambassador that Thai and Cambodian local military commanders near the disputed border area adjacent to the Preah Vihear temple continued to communicate well and maintained good relationships. Neither side wanted further clashes, the Deputy Commander said. Considering good relations between local commanders on the border, the Thai Army had been surprised by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's October 13 ultimatum that the Thai withdraw from disputed border areas. Jiradej suggested to the Ambassador that it was likely that incorrect information about the border situation had been passed to Hun Sen, because the Thai Army had been unable to understand why else the Cambodian Prime Minister had decided to heighten tensions. ¶7. (C) The Thai military viewed the October 15 clash between the two sides as an "accident", Jiradej said. Thai troops in the disputed area adjacent to the temple had returned fire only after Cambodian troops shot first, and in the ensuing 40 minutes, the clash had taken on a life of its own. Jiradej said Army Commander General Anupong was concerned for the protection of the Preah Vihear temple and had given specific orders for Thai troops not to use force in the area of temple and not to escalate the use of force in the case of future clashes. JOHN