RUSSIA-GEORGIA: THAIS POSITIVE ON HUMANITARIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002536 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/RUS, EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC GG RU MARR SUBJECT: RUSSIA-GEORGIA: THAIS POSITIVE ON HUMANITARIAN ASPECT BUT UNLIKELY TO SPEAK OUT REF: STATE 89769 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) We delivered reftel demarche to MFA Director for Central and Eastern Europe Pachuen Phornmongkol on August 22. Pachuen said that the MFA and RTG had not formed a position on the Russia-Georgia conflict. She reacted positively to points about facilitating humanitarian assistance to Georgia and said Thailand would support this position, but she was non-committal about a call for withdrawal/honoring the terms of the cease fire agreement. Pachuen asked what the U.S. and western countries planned as next steps if Russia did not comply. Comment: We expect the RTG to continue its low-profile stance on the Georgian-Russian conflict, as it continues to nurture a relationship with Russia with an eye towards energy deals and is consumed with problems closer to home. End Comment. PM Samak to Russia in October to talk energy -------------- ¶2. (C) Pachuen confirmed that PM Samak will proceed with an October 5 visit to Russia to discuss possible energy deals, despite the awkward timing vis-a-vis the Russian incursion into Georgia. Pachuen explained that the trip was long in the making, dating back conceptually to the Thaksin era. Initially Thailand aspired to become a regional "energy hub" via creation of a "land bridge" across the southern Thai isthmus, offering an alternative to the Strait of Malacca and challenging Singapore's hub role. After that concept became impractical, the trip's focus shifted to Thailand acquiring inexpensive diesel from Russia for the domestic market. ¶3. (C) Pachuen admitted that Petroleum Authority of Thailand analysts were worried that Russian heavy oil would require extensive refining, making it economically unfeasible, but at this point the "big fish," PM Samak and Russian President Medvedev, were in control of the possible deal; "minnow" bureaucrats would have to implement whatever was agreed upon. We reviewed recent Russian practices in energy contract manipulation, both in squeezing out western investors in Russia and pressuring countries like Ukraine by tearing up contracts and threatening supply cuts. Pachuen nodded helplessly, saying "I personally have no illusions about Russia," but reasserting that such large-scale decisions were made top-down in both Thailand and Russia. JOHN