THAILAND'S ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP BEGINS WITH MODEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002461 SIPDIS EAP FOR DAS MARCIEL AND RSP, DRL FOR BUCKLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ASEAN TH SUBJECT: THAILAND'S ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP BEGINS WITH MODEST HOPES, SOME SKEPTICISM Classified By: Charge D'Affaires James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Thailand assumed the ASEAN chairmanship on July 24. Comments from senior Thai officials since indicate the Thai plan to focus on increasing ASEAN's relevance to the region's citizens, food security, disaster relief, and the formation of an ASEAN human rights body authorized in the new ASEAN Charter currently being ratified by members. Thai MFA officials briefed diplomats that Thailand hopes to provide its neighbors with an example of how to tolerate dissent expressed by civil society groups, a sentiment shared by Thai non-governmental experts. Those same experts, however, voiced skepticism at an August 13 roundtable about Prime Minister Samak's ability to preside effectively over ASEAN meetings; they also questioned the ability of ASEAN to improve human rights conditions in Southeast Asia, particularly in Burma. ¶2. (C) Comment: With Thailand currently inwardly-focused due to extended domestic political turmoil, it is unlikely that Thailand will offer vigorous leadership during its expected 18 month chairmanship of ASEAN. This is particularly unfortunate given the opportunity the new Charter offers to take ASEAN in a new direction, and the challenge posed by Burma. We concur with the domestic critics who believe it likely that, barring unforeseen developments, Thailand's current policy towards Burma will prevail during its ASEAN chairmanship. ¶3. (C) Comment, cont. Nevertheless, Thailand's efforts to manage the creation of ASEAN's new Human Rights Body, as well as its tradition of perhaps ASEAN's most active civil society, may over the medium term have some positive impact on Burma and other Southeast Asian countries. Coincidentally, the current ASEAN Secretary General, Surin Pitsuwan, is a former Thai Foreign Minister who pushed for a more activist ASEAN a decade ago under the rubric of "flexible engagement." It is important to note, however, that Surin comes from the opposition Democrat Party, and while he maintains ties with Democrat Party politicians and civil society activists, he is unlikely to be a close partner of the Samak government. End Summary and Comment. PROMOTE AWARENESS AND OWNERSHIP OF ASEAN -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Deputy Director-General of ASEAN Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Manasvi Srisodapol briefed the diplomatic community on August 1 about Thailand's assuming the ASEAN chairmanship; new FM Tej Bunnag held a follow-up luncheon August 8 to continue the dialogue. Manasvi stressed that, as chair, Thailand wanted to increase the relevance of ASEAN to the region's citizens. Thailand had already implemented large-scale outreach programs, such as board games that educate children about the role of ASEAN. Manasvi pointed to the theme of this year's summit -- ASEAN Charter for ASEAN Peoples -- as an example of Thailand's emphasis on showing people the relevance of ASEAN. He suggested that ASEAN faces challenges on this count because of the complex regional architecture in which many ASEAN countries participate, including the many East Asian fora which are not ASEAN-led, such as APEC and the East Asian Summit (EAS),as well as the Six Party Talks. These multiple mechanisms further distance ASEAN from the populations it is intended to serve, Manasvi claimed. However, he sought carefully not to criticize these non-ASEAN fora, saying that Thailand welcomed additional ways for leaders in the region to engage and improve relations. THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN ASEAN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS),part of a network of ISIS think tanks established in the original ASEAN six countries to BANGKOK 00002461 002 OF 003 promote better awareness of regional issues, hosted a panel discussion entitled: "Thailand's Chairmanship of ASEAN: Agenda, Challenges, and Prospects" on August 13. According to the MFA's Manasvi, one of Thailand's strengths as chair would be its robust civil society, and he hoped that Thailand's example would encourage civil society participation within other ASEAN member countries. Assistant Group Editor of the Nation newspaper Kavi Chongkittavorn, Thailand's highest profile op-ed commentator on regional issues, asserted that the RTG's tolerance of ongoing People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protests pointed to Thailand's ability to encourage civil society participation in ASEAN affairs. (Note: PAD is an anti-government group that formed several years ago to oppose then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. End Note.) Kavi added that the governments of many ASEAN member countries would not have permitted such blatant daily attacks on a ruling government, and many do not take seriously the input of civil society groups. FOCUS ON FOOD SECURITY AND DISASTER RELIEF -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Manasvi highlighted Thailand's intention to promote the establishment of an ASEAN 3 (China, Japan, South Korea) Emergency Rice Reserve (ERR),stating that such a reserve could have assisted relief efforts during Cyclone Nargis and the 2004 tsunami. The ASEAN 3 ERR would replace a three-year pilot project that began in 2004. Thailand is currently negotiating a draft agreement that would require ASEAN members to earmark an undisclosed amount of rice for an emergency reserve. MFA Department of ASEAN Affairs official Paisan Rupanichkij told us separately that minor technical details are still being debated between Thailand and certain member countries, but he hoped the agreement would be finalized during Thailand's chairmanship. Manasvi also assessed that ASEAN does not have an effective disaster response triggering system. Instead, he said, ASEAN members maintain several different early warning systems, but many of these fail to communicate internationally, citing the systems used by India and Australia. Manasvi said that the creation of a formal network to trigger an early warning system and mobilize disaster relief is a top priority during Thailand's ASEAN chairmanship. THE CHARTER AND FORMATION OF AN ASEAN HUMAN RIGHTS BODY -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) As Thailand assumed chairmanship of ASEAN, arguably the three most democratic members of the grouping -- Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand -- had yet to ratify the much heralded Charter. Thai MFA sources indicate the Thai parliament should review the draft Charter starting in late August or early September. The MFA's Manasvi suggested Thailand planned to have the first draft of the terms of reference (TOR) for the ASEAN Human Rights Body available for consideration at the 14th ASEAN Summit in Thailand scheduled for December 2008. The RTG intended to consult with Chulalongkorn University law professor Vitit Muntarbhorn and a panel of experts in its efforts to shape the ASEAN Human Rights Body. Vitit told the audience at the August 13 roundtable that the high-level panel would soon meet monthly in Bangkok to work towards finalizing the TOR. He warned that ASEAN's human rights component would be "modest" due to inconsistencies among member countries' human rights records, but he expressed hope for progress and future acceptance of human rights treaties. Vitit also welcomed an increase in ASEAN peace-building missions, stressing that ASEAN should push for the promotion and protection of human rights. He pointed to the past practice of deploying military forces within the region on humanitarian missions, such as the Thai military's role in protecting and staffing East Timor hospitals. THAI EXPERTS SKEPTICAL OVER THAI CHAIRMANSHIP -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In his opening remarks at the ISIS roundtable, ISIS Director Thitinan Pongsudhirak summarized ASEAN as being "long on ambition and short on results," and he lamented that BANGKOK 00002461 003 OF 003 Thailand had begun its 18-month chairmanship during a period of domestic political turmoil. Many of the panelists voiced pessimism over PM Samak's ability to nurture friendships among leaders of member countries; they questioned his ability to preside effectively over three major summits and other lesser, albeit also important, gatherings over the next 18 months. Kavi complained that Samak's role as ASEAN chair would be a diplomatic "disaster on the scale of Nargis" due to his inability to articulate his thoughts in a diplomatic manner. In contrast, the MFA's Manasvi defended Samak as effective in his interactions with other regional leaders; he also expressed confidence in the ability of newly-appointed FM Tej Bunnag, a career diplomat, to have a positive impact on Thailand's chairmanship of ASEAN. Manasvi told us that Tej considered Thailand's ASEAN chairmanship to be his top priority as FM and had visited the MFA ASEAN Department on a daily basis for updates. ¶9. (SBU) Thailand's policy towards Burma also raised concerns at the ISIS event. Several audience members, including the Ambassadors of New Zealand and Finland, questioned whether Thailand would continue to express strong concerns about Burma that had been voiced by Singapore during its chairmanship recently concluded. Thai panelists largely agreed with the skepticism, stressing that Singapore was not burdened by the "proximity" of Burma and predicting that current RTG policy towards Burma would prevail during Thailand's ASEAN chairmanship. Put on the defensive, the MFA's Manasvi reminded participants that the ASEAN Charter was meant to inspire all members to achieve its principles, rather than to place severe pressure on Burma. ENTWISTLE