SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: HERETOFORE UNKNOWN GROUP IN

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: HERETOFORE UNKNOWN GROUP IN
SOUTHERN THAILAND CALLS A CEASE-FIRE

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a series of sudden and bizarre
pronouncements July 17, former Minister of Defense General
(ret) CHETTA Thanacharo, a potential contender for a cabinet
job, said that a group of militants behind the violence in
southern Thailand would announce a cease-fire. A short time
later, a heretofore unknown group calling itself the Union of
Underground Organizations in Southern Thailand declared an
unconditional cease-fire, pledged loyalty to the King of
Thailand, and ordered all militants to lay down their
weapons. The army has denied any knowledge of this cease
fire and none of our contacts on the South put much credence
in it. Several, however, have warned the announcement could
lead to more violence in the deep south; we share both their
skepticism and concern. End Summary.


2. (U) During the morning of July 17, former Minister of
Defense General (ret) CHETTA Thanacharo declared to the Thai
and international press that a group of southern Thai Malay
Muslim militants he had been meeting with would declare an
unconditional cease-fire with the Thai government. A short
time later, the commander of a group calling itself the Union
of Underground Organizations in Southern Thailand declared,
through a video recording played on Thai television, that his
organizations were ordering an unconditional cease-fire as of
1200, July 17. The commander said southern Thai Malay
Muslims had been fighting for over 100 years, and this was
now the era of peace. According to the commander, the
insurgent groups were declaring their support and loyalty to
the King of Thailand. He said all fighters were being
ordered to lay down their weapons, and all those who did not
would be punished.


3. (C) We were unable to reach CHETTA for comment on the
announcement, but 4th Army Area spokesperson Colonel Acra
Tiproch told us that the army had no knowledge of the
cease-fire and was not involved in any negotiations. He said
any negotiations that may have taken place were likely the
work of CHETTA. The military was not involved. Acra said he
believed CHETTA had credibility on the issue and would not
have made the announcement if it was not legitimate. He said
the timing was right for the insurgents to declare a
cease-fire because they were losing the fight. He speculated
that the leaders of the insurgency might be changing tactics
because their networks had been broken, they were losing
weapons, and fighters were ignoring their orders. He
emphasized that this announcement would not cause the army to
change tactics, and arrest warrants for suspected insurgents
would not be canceled.


4. (C) Other embassy contacts were less certain about
CHETTA,s motives or the legitimacy of the announcement. Our
Human Rights Watch contact, Sunai Phasuk (protect),said his
view was that this may be an image building stunt by a little
known group trying to boost its standing with either the
government or other militants. Sunai was skeptical of the
group's motives and legitimacy because the group called
themselves "mujahidin" (according to Sunai, the insurgent do
not refer to themselves as mujahidin),made the announcement
in a Malay dialect that is not spoken either in southern
Thailand or northern Malaysia, and was generally unknown to
anyone. Sunai said the BRN-C, the insurgent group most
widely believed to be behind the violence, had communicated
to him that they would "disprove the announcement within 48
hours by carrying out their activities." He suspected CHETTA
had some political motive for breaking the news.


5. (C) Don Pathan (protect),a reporter on the southern
violence for The Nation newspaper, told us that he had spoken
to Wan Kadir, a former militant leader now residing in exile
in Kelantan, northern Malaysia. According to Pathan, Kadir
did not know about the group in question, and was concerned
this announcement would further inflame the violence by
causing the groups that are actually involved in the
insurgency to disprove the claim. Pathan said he had also
been in touch with former PULO leaders living in Europe, all

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of whom knew nothing of the development.


6. (C) Our academic contacts who reside in the deep south
also gave little credence to the announcement. Zakee
Pitakumphol and Srisomphop Chitphiromsri (protect both),both
of Prince of Songkhla University, commented separately that
they doubted that this group had a role in the southern
violence. Srisomphop commented that none of his contacts
knew anything about the group, and Zakee pointed out that the
whole story did not sound credible because it was disclosed
by General CHETTA - who does not have credentials in dealing
with the southern violence. He said the fact that the
cease-fire was supposed to be "unconditional" sounded fishy
as well. Ahmad Soomboon (protect) of the Thai Center for
Muslim and Democratic Development was more concerned with
what will happen next. He noted the whole thing might lead
to a greater use of force by the military in the South
against insurgents who the army could claim broke the
cease-fire.


7. (C) Comment: We concur with our contacts' skepticism
regarding this heretofore unknown group's existence and
credibility. We do not rule out the possibility that the
announcement is a clumsy and possibly counterproductive
psychological operation by the government, intended to
confuse or demoralize the insurgents. More likely, this is
simply be an attempt by CHETTA to raise his profile in
anticipation of an upcoming cabinet reshuffle. CHETTA, who
retired from the Army in 1998, currently heads the Ruam Jai
Thai Chart Pattana party, a relatively uninfluential member
of the governing coalition. He served briefly as Defense
Minister under Prime Minister Thaksin, and was rumored to be
a potential Defense Minister when the Samak's cabinet was
first assembled earlier this year. We doubt CHETTA has had
any role in negotiations between the RTG and known insurgent
groups.
JOHN