SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: HERETOFORE UNKNOWN GROUP IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002181 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: HERETOFORE UNKNOWN GROUP IN SOUTHERN THAILAND CALLS A CEASE-FIRE BANGKOK 00002181 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission, James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a series of sudden and bizarre pronouncements July 17, former Minister of Defense General (ret) Chetta Thanacharo, a potential contender for a cabinet job, said that a group of militants behind the violence in southern Thailand would announce a cease-fire. A short time later, a heretofore unknown group calling itself the Union of Underground Organizations in Southern Thailand declared an unconditional cease-fire, pledged loyalty to the King of Thailand, and ordered all militants to lay down their weapons. The army has denied any knowledge of this cease fire and none of our contacts on the South put much credence in it. Several, however, have warned the announcement could lead to more violence in the deep south; we share both their skepticism and concern. End Summary. ¶2. (U) During the morning of July 17, former Minister of Defense General (ret) Chetta Thanacharo declared to the Thai and international press that a group of southern Thai Malay Muslim militants he had been meeting with would declare an unconditional cease-fire with the Thai government. A short time later, the commander of a group calling itself the Union of Underground Organizations in Southern Thailand declared, through a video recording played on Thai television, that his organizations were ordering an unconditional cease-fire as of 1200, July 17. The commander said southern Thai Malay Muslims had been fighting for over 100 years, and this was now the era of peace. According to the commander, the insurgent groups were declaring their support and loyalty to the King of Thailand. He said all fighters were being ordered to lay down their weapons, and all those who did not would be punished. ¶3. (C) We were unable to reach Chetta for comment on the announcement, but 4th Army Area spokesperson Colonel Acra Tiproch told us that the army had no knowledge of the cease-fire and was not involved in any negotiations. He said any negotiations that may have taken place were likely the work of Chetta. The military was not involved. Acra said he believed Chetta had credibility on the issue and would not have made the announcement if it was not legitimate. He said �00A;the timing was right for the insurgents to declare a cease-fire because they were losing the fight. He speculated that the leaders of the insurgency might be changing tactics because their networks had been broken, they were losing weapons, and fighters were ignoring their orders. He emphasized that this announcement would not cause the army to change tactics, and arrest warrants for suspected insurgents would not be canceled. ¶4. (C) Other embassy contacts were less certain about Chetta,s motives or the legitimacy of the announcement. Our Human Rights Watch contact, Sunai Phasuk (protect),said his view was that this may be an image building stunt by a little known group trying to boost its standing with either the government or other militants. Sunai was skeptical of the group's motives and legitimacy because the group called themselves "mujahidin" (according to Sunai, the insurgent do not refer to themselves as mujahidin),made the announcement in a Malay dialect that is not spoken either in southern Thailand or northern Malaysia, and was generally unknown to anyone. Sunai said the BRN-C, the insurgent group most widely believed to be behind the violence, had communicated to him that they would "disprove the announcement within 48 hours by carrying out their activities." He suspected Chetta had some political motive for breaking the news. ¶5. (C) Don Pathan (protect),a reporter on the southern violence for The Nation newspaper, told us that he had spoken to Wan Kadir, a former militant leader now residing in exile in Kelantan, northern Malaysia. According to Pathan, Kadir did not know about the group in question, and was concerned this announcement would further inflame the violence by causing the groups that are actually involved in the insurgency to disprove the claim. Pathan said he had also been in touch with former PULO leaders living in Europe, all BANGKOK 00002181 002.2 OF 002 of whom knew nothing of the development. ¶6. (C) Our academic contacts who reside in the deep south also gave little credence to the announcement. Zakee Pitakumphol and Srisomphop Chitphiromsri (protect both),both of Prince of Songkhla University, commented separately that they doubted that this group had a role in the southern violence. Srisomphop commented that none of his contacts knew anything about the group, and Zakee pointed out that the whole story did not sound credible because it was disclosed by General Chetta - who does not have credentials in dealing with the southern violence. He said the fact that the cease-fire was supposed to be "unconditional" sounded fishy as well. Ahmad Soomboon (protect) of the Thai Center for Muslim and Democratic Development was more concerned with what will happen next. He noted the whole thing might lead to a greater use of force by the military in the South against insurgents who the army could claim broke the cease-fire. ¶7. (C) Comment: We concur with our contacts' skepticism regarding this heretofore unknown group's existence and credibility. We do not rule out the possibility that the announcement is a clumsy and possibly counterproductive psychological operation by the government, intended to confuse or demoralize the insurgents. More likely, this is simply be an attempt by Chetta to raise his profile in anticipation of an upcoming cabinet reshuffle. Chetta, who retired from the Army in 1998, currently heads the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana party, a relatively uninfluential member of the governing coalition. He served briefly as Defense Minister under Prime Minister Thaksin, and was rumored to be a potential Defense Minister when the Samak's cabinet was first assembled earlier this year. We doubt Chetta has had any role in negotiations between the RTG and known insurgent groups. JOHN