LEADING GENERAL PRAISES SAMAK'S APPROACH TOWARDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001978 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS KDEM TH SUBJECT: LEADING GENERAL PRAISES SAMAK'S APPROACH TOWARDS DEMONSTRATORS AND ARMY Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul told the Ambassador on June 25 that Prime Minister Samak appeared unlikely to crack down harshly on anti-government protestors, and, even if Samak were to do so, this would not necessarily prompt military intervention in politics. Winai said democratic institutions were functioning better than in the Thaksin era, and he spoke highly of Samak's positive relationship with the military, saying Samak appeared likely to respect military preferences in the upcoming reshuffle of senior officers. Anti-government firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul is advocating revisions to the government structure, to reduce the influence of elected representatives. This proposal has raised concerns even among some of Sondhi's allies. End Summary. WINAI OPTIMISTIC -------------- ¶2. (C) In a June 25 four-eyes meeting with the Ambassador, Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul spoke positively of Prime Minister Samak's performance, saying he believed that Samak had received and was heeding good advice from King Bhumibol. Winai believed this advice accounted for Samak's willingness to make significant concessions to his opponents, including allowing a no-confidence debate to take place in the House and allowing protestors from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to surround Government House on June 20. ¶3. (C) Winai said the PAD should logically have toned down its actions after persuading the government to back away from its plans to amend the constitution in the near future. Instead, however, the PAD continued its demonstrations and has now publicly committed itself to bringing down the government. Winai believed the PAD sought to provoke violence, but he doubted PAD could do so, especially in a way that would support PAD goals. Only a dramatic amount of bloodshed would lead the military to supplant the police's role in restoring order, and even such a move would fall short of a seizure of political power. (During the discussion, the Ambassador clearly expressed the negative ramifications for Thailand of a coup.) Winai doubted that Samak would order the type of crackdown that the PAD sought ;to provoke. He added that the situation appeared relatively stable, and social and political groups had outlets that had been lacking during the Thaksin era. The no-confidence debate in the House, and a similar debate (without an associated resolution) in the Senate showed that checks and balances were working in present-day Thailand. The media was also covering both sides of the issues. ¶4. (C) Samak and the military enjoyed a "quite strong" relationship, Winai said. Winai described the process for the October reshuffle of top military positions, and he said that Samak would respect the judgment of the service chiefs, most likely approving most of their recommendations. Winai did worry, however, that some people around Thaksin -- specifically, the group of politicians led by former Thai Rak Thai official Newin Chidchob -- were advocating unhelpful legal changes that would allow the Defense Minister to remove top military officials at will; such amendments to the law would completely politicize the military, Winai warned. Newin and his cohorts had also proposed sweeping moves to jettison the new constitutional provisions devised by the 2006 coup leaders. Winai quipped that Newin's group was simply trying to prove to Thaksin that they were "worth the money they were paid." ¶5. (C) When the Ambassador asked about Winai's future plans after his retirement this year, Winai said he had been asked to enter politics, but he planned not to do so. He said he appreciated the respect that he had been shown in his BANGKOK 00001978 002 OF 002 military career, and he saw that politicians generally occupied a position of lower standing. EX-TRT OFFICIAL'S VIEW OF POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT -------------- -- ¶6. (C) In a June 25 meeting with the Ambassador, former Thai Rak Thai Acting Party Leader Chaturon Chaiseng echoed some elements of Winai's view. Chaturon accepted at face value the PAD's declared intention of bringing down the Samak administration. He assessed that Samak had effectively knocked PAD off balance by allowing the no-confidence debate in the House to proceed, effectively preventing the PAD from calling credibly for either Samak's resignation or for House dissolution. Chaturon said he doubted there would be a coup, as he believed the 2006-2007 experience had discredited military-led governance for the medium term, but he acknowledged that the PAD had some allies within the military. He also worried that many of the traditionally liberal forces of Thai society now appeared sympathetic toward a PAD concept of revising the structure of governance so as to reduce voters' influence on the composition of parliament, by allocating a majority of the seats for selected members of civil society. PAD AIMS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER -------------- ¶7. (C) In the Political Counselor's recent discussion with a PAD ally, former Ambassador to the U.S. Kasit Piromya, we heard more about the rather utopian idea of PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul to bring about a new age of democracy in Thailand by increasing the role of civil society in governance. In advocating an increased use of the kind of controversial institutions introduced by the post-coup government (such as the half-appointed Senate) Sondhi is trying to appeal to the probably large segment of the Thai public which distrusts and looks down on politicians, believing them corrupt and self-serving. (For example, Thailand's largest daily paper, Thai Rath, published an editorial this week endorsing "people's sector politics" and blaming politicians who believe, that "people can take part in politics for a few seconds only when they mark their ballots in election booths. Then, the common people have no duty in politics and must transfer their rights to the elected politicians to use the rights at will.") Kasit, who is also a supporter of the Democrat Party, noted that Sondhi's views on this issue further distanced PAD from the Democrats. ¶8. (C) According to an Australian diplomat who spoke briefly with Sondhi this week, the firebrand opposition leader believes that he has tremendous support around the country, claiming (outrageously) that half a million people had participated in the PAD's march on Government House. He claimed support from elements of the military for his struggle, but admitted that Army Commander Anupong Paojinda appeared opposed to a military intervention, and had control of the crucial First Army, stationed in Bangkok. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Winai was one of the top strategists involved in the 2006 coup and the Council for National Security (CNS) political maneuvers in the post-coup administration. We consider his perspective on the current situation valuable and concur with his and other contacts' overall assessment that Sondhi and his PAD allies are not on the verge of bringing down the Samak administration. JOHN