LEADING GENERAL PRAISES SAMAK'S APPROACH TOWARDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001978

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS KDEM TH
SUBJECT: LEADING GENERAL PRAISES SAMAK'S APPROACH TOWARDS
DEMONSTRATORS AND ARMY

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary General Winai
Phattiyakul told the Ambassador on June 25 that Prime
Minister Samak appeared unlikely to crack down harshly on
anti-government protestors, and, even if Samak were to do so,
this would not necessarily prompt military intervention in
politics. Winai said democratic institutions were
functioning better than in the Thaksin era, and he spoke
highly of Samak's positive relationship with the military,
saying Samak appeared likely to respect military preferences
in the upcoming reshuffle of senior officers.
Anti-government firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul is advocating
revisions to the government structure, to reduce the
influence of elected representatives. This proposal has
raised concerns even among some of Sondhi's allies. End
Summary.

WINAI OPTIMISTIC
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2. (C) In a June 25 four-eyes meeting with the Ambassador,
Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary General Winai
Phattiyakul spoke positively of Prime Minister Samak's
performance, saying he believed that Samak had received and
was heeding good advice from King Bhumibol. Winai believed
this advice accounted for Samak's willingness to make
significant concessions to his opponents, including allowing
a no-confidence debate to take place in the House and
allowing protestors from the People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) to surround Government House on June 20.


3. (C) Winai said the PAD should logically have toned down
its actions after persuading the government to back away from
its plans to amend the constitution in the near future.
Instead, however, the PAD continued its demonstrations and
has now publicly committed itself to bringing down the
government. Winai believed the PAD sought to provoke
violence, but he doubted PAD could do so, especially in a way
that would support PAD goals. Only a dramatic amount of
bloodshed would lead the military to supplant the police's
role in restoring order, and even such a move would fall
short of a seizure of political power. (During the
discussion, the Ambassador clearly expressed the negative
ramifications for Thailand of a coup.) Winai doubted that
Samak would order the type of crackdown that the PAD sought
to provoke. He added that the situation appeared relatively
stable, and social and political groups had outlets that had
been lacking during the Thaksin era. The no-confidence
debate in the House, and a similar debate (without an
associated resolution) in the Senate showed that checks and
balances were working in present-day Thailand. The media was
also covering both sides of the issues.


4. (C) Samak and the military enjoyed a "quite strong"
relationship, Winai said. Winai described the process for
the October reshuffle of top military positions, and he said
that Samak would respect the judgment of the service chiefs,
most likely approving most of their recommendations. Winai
did worry, however, that some people around Thaksin --
specifically, the group of politicians led by former Thai Rak
Thai official Newin Chidchob -- were advocating unhelpful
legal changes that would allow the Defense Minister to remove
top military officials at will; such amendments to the law
would completely politicize the military, Winai warned.
Newin and his cohorts had also proposed sweeping moves to
jettison the new constitutional provisions devised by the
2006 coup leaders. Winai quipped that Newin's group was
simply trying to prove to Thaksin that they were "worth the
money they were paid."


5. (C) When the Ambassador asked about Winai's future plans
after his retirement this year, Winai said he had been asked
to enter politics, but he planned not to do so. He said he
appreciated the respect that he had been shown in his

BANGKOK 00001978 002 OF 002


military career, and he saw that politicians generally
occupied a position of lower standing.

EX-TRT OFFICIAL'S VIEW OF POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
-------------- --


6. (C) In a June 25 meeting with the Ambassador, former Thai
Rak Thai Acting Party Leader Chaturon Chaiseng echoed some
elements of Winai's view. Chaturon accepted at face value
the PAD's declared intention of bringing down the Samak
administration. He assessed that Samak had effectively
knocked PAD off balance by allowing the no-confidence debate
in the House to proceed, effectively preventing the PAD from
calling credibly for either Samak's resignation or for House
dissolution. Chaturon said he doubted there would be a coup,
as he believed the 2006-2007 experience had discredited
military-led governance for the medium term, but he
acknowledged that the PAD had some allies within the
military. He also worried that many of the traditionally
liberal forces of Thai society now appeared sympathetic
toward a PAD concept of revising the structure of governance
so as to reduce voters' influence on the composition of
parliament, by allocating a majority of the seats for
selected members of civil society.

PAD AIMS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER
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7. (C) In the Political Counselor's recent discussion with a
PAD ally, former Ambassador to the U.S. Kasit Piromya, we
heard more about the rather utopian idea of PAD leader Sondhi
Limthongkul to bring about a new age of democracy in Thailand
by increasing the role of civil society in governance. In
advocating an increased use of the kind of controversial
institutions introduced by the post-coup government (such as
the half-appointed Senate) Sondhi is trying to appeal to the
probably large segment of the Thai public which distrusts and
looks down on politicians, believing them corrupt and
self-serving. (For example, Thailand's largest daily paper,
Thai Rath, published an editorial this week endorsing
"people's sector politics" and blaming politicians who
believe, that "people can take part in politics for a few
seconds only when they mark their ballots in election booths.
Then, the common people have no duty in politics and must
transfer their rights to the elected politicians to use the
rights at will.") Kasit, who is also a supporter of the
Democrat Party, noted that Sondhi's views on this issue
further distanced PAD from the Democrats.


8. (C) According to an Australian diplomat who spoke briefly
with Sondhi this week, the firebrand opposition leader
believes that he has tremendous support around the country,
claiming (outrageously) that half a million people had
participated in the PAD's march on Government House. He
claimed support from elements of the military for his
struggle, but admitted that Army Commander Anupong Paojinda
appeared opposed to a military intervention, and had control
of the crucial First Army, stationed in Bangkok.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Winai was one of the top strategists involved in the
2006 coup and the Council for National Security (CNS)
political maneuvers in the post-coup administration. We
consider his perspective on the current situation valuable
and concur with his and other contacts' overall assessment
that Sondhi and his PAD allies are not on the verge of
bringing down the Samak administration.
JOHN