THE PARLIAMENT'S TURN - NO CONFIDENCE DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001933 SIPDIS NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: THE PARLIAMENT'S TURN - NO CONFIDENCE DEBATE SCHEDULED REF: BANGKOK 1917 (ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATORS) Classified By: A/DCM Anne Casper, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: While peaceful demonstrators continue to surround Government House, the government has agreed to send the affected ministers to participate in the no-confidence debate requested by the opposition Democrat Party on June 24-25, and to appear before the Senate to answer questions on June 23. The Democrats have little expectation that the no-confidence motion will pass, but in the wake of weeks of street demonstrations, they want to bring the political process back to the Parliament. It is not clear how the demonstrators will respond to the no-confidence vote. It is possible that further concessions by the government -- particularly pledges not to interfere in the court cases against former PM Thaksin -- could be enough to end the demonstrations. However, a PAD supporter told us that the protests might also escalate, if the demonstrators viewed the Parliament's action as ineffectual. The government will take a pounding from the Parliament this week, but it still appears to have the votes to weather the no confidence debate. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) With the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) demonstration surrounding the Government House and calling for the PM's resignation, the government agreed to put the opposition request for a no-confidence debate on the Parliament's schedule for this week. The government also agreed to accede to the request by a group of senators who wanted to debate the government's performance. The Senate action is taking place on Monday, June 23, while the no-confidence debate in the lower house will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. ¶3. (C) The Democrats -- the sole opposition party -- say that there is little expectation that the government coalition will crack as a result of the no-confidence debate or the current level of protests. The party's Secretary-General told us on Friday that there was no coordination between the Democrats and the PAD about the timing of the motion, which he did not expect to pass. Former Ambassador to the US Kasit, who is both a Democrat party advisor and a frequent speaker at PAD rallies, told us much the same thing today. He did add that the strong emotions evoked by the Thai-Cambodian negotiations over the inscription of the ancient Khmer Preah Vihear temple could sway some of the coalition parties and even some of the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) MPs, particularly those from the Northeastern provinces close to the temple. Amb. Kasit said, as had the Party's SecGen, that the Democrats did not want to bring down the government of PM Samak. In fact, as the Dems are broke, they really do not want to face new elections too soon. ¶4. (C) The Democrats, according to Kasit, are holding the debate because they want to bring the political process back into the Parliament. The Democrats and the PAD share some goals, but differ widely on tactics; the PAD reflects the views of much of Thai civil society in disdaining and distrusting political parties and politicians. Kasit was unsure how the PAD would respond if the no-confidence motion failed and PM Samak continued to resist stepping down. On the one hand, the PAD leaders might agree to end their demonstration if the government agreed to certain conditions, including a promise not to interfere with the judicial process in any of the cases against former PM Thaksin, a pledge not to harass or transfer officials who had cooperated with the post-coup government on those investigations, and agreement to drop support for inscribing the Preah Vihear site, at least without significant modifications to the agreement with Cambodia. On the other hand, Kasit was concerned that the failure of the no-confidence motion would only confirm in the mind of the PAD leaders that the Parliament was largely irrelevant to the political process, and encourage PAD to escalate their protests. One possible next step would be for the state-owned enterprise leaders to make good on their threat to start cutting water and electrical service to some areas. Kasit said some union leaders had met with him and told him they were prepared to take that step. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) The government has probably made the right call in permitting the debates in the Parliament, but we will see how BANGKOK 00001933 002 OF 002 the excitable PM Samak handles the grilling he and his ministers are likely to receive. There is a lot of buzz about the possible resignation of the PM, but the governing coalition still has more than enough seats to weather the no-confidence vote. Samak is embattled, but not defeated. JOHN