FORMER CABINET MINISTER DISCUSSES LESE MAJESTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001879 SIPDIS NOFORN NSC FOR PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM KJUS TH SUBJECT: FORMER CABINET MINISTER DISCUSSES LESE MAJESTE CHARGE, THAKSIN, AND ROYAL FAMILY REF: A. BANGKOK 1662 (LESE MAJESTE) ¶B. BANGKOK 1613 (JAKRAPOB TAKES AXE TO MEDIA) ¶C. BANGKOK 1612 (HOW HOT IS IT?) ¶D. BANGKOK 1370 (THEIN SEIN VISIT) ¶E. BANGKOK 1290 (DINNER WITH THAKSIN) Classified By: CDA James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Jakrapob Penkair, the former Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office who resigned on May 30 after being charged with lese majeste, told us on June 17 that he may be prosecuted for this alleged offense, but he would expect to be pardoned if convicted. He believed the police were likely encouraged by the palace or its surrogates to pursue his case, but he also fell victim to plotting by colleagues in People's Power Party circles. Jakrapob claimed that former Prime Minister Thaksin's lack of support for him, and for Jakrapob's advocacy of a more democratic Thailand, showed that Thaksin has withdrawn from political life -- even though Thaksin, in our view, remains involved in informal political decisionmaking. Jakrapob also commented on King Bhumibol's health and on the Queen's activities and her personal connection to First Army Commander Prayut Chan-ocha (who has featured prominently of late in coup rumors). End Summary. LESE MAJESTE CASE -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Deputy Political Counselor met on June 17 with former Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office Jakrapob Penkair (strictly protect throughout),who resigned on May 30 after being charged by police with lese majeste following media focus on his public description of a clash between democracy and Thailand's traditional patronage system (ref A). Jakrapob characterized the lese majeste charge against him as weak. He said the investigating police officers had admitted that a literal, word-by-word reading of his public remarks presented no basis for the charge, but the police nevertheless based their accusation on suspicion of a "hidden agenda" against the monarchy that was revealed by the overall tone of his statements. Speaking privately to us, Jakrapob readily admitted that his goal was to help Thailand to build a more modern political system, one in which the structures of democratic governance would not be vulnerable to interference by the palace. ¶3. (C) Jakrapob said he would provide the police with a statement responding to the lese majeste charge on July 2. His case would then undergo reviews by police officials at two levels before it might be forwarded to public prosecutors. Jakrapob doubted that those reviews would result in the police dismissing his case, as such a move would generate strong criticism of the police by royalists. ¶4. (C) Citing widespread public esteem for Thailand's judicial system, Jakrapob told us he doubted prosecutors would face similar criticism if they were to decline to prosecute him. He claimed, however, that the high profile of his case had led to widespread dissemination of a text of his remarks, and this might make it more likely that this matter would proceed to trial. He said he had recommended to colleagues of his that they should use his case, and possibly his imprisonment, to advance the public's interest (e.g., enlightening Thais about feudal elements of Thai politics, including lese majeste provisions of law). Jakrapob said he expected that he would receive a royal pardon if convicted, as King Bhumibol has announced that he would pardon anyone convicted of lese majeste. STABBED IN THE BACK -------------- ¶5. (C) Jakrapob surmised that the police had been pressured to pursue him by a loose cabal involving, possibly among others, Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),and the Democrat BANGKOK 00001879 002 OF 003 Party. He also felt that enemies of his within the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) had deliberately stoked the controversy in order to force him out of office. He claimed that some figures -- such as Newin Chidchob, a former legislator and close associate of former PM Thaksin -- had taken note of his efforts to reform media management in Thailand (see ref B) and wanted to displace him in order to accrue for themselves the influence and fringe benefits that such efforts could provide. ¶6. (C/NF) Jakrapob told us with dismay that Thaksin had quickly decided not to support Jakrapob when he came under fire. Jakrapob said Thaksin had likely worried that Jakrapob would use his position to engage in a "long war" (Jakrapob's term) against the palace, and this could affect Thaksin. Implying that Thaksin's and his political views were not dissimilar, Jakrapob said Thaksin's lack of political support for him showed that Thaksin had truly withdrawn from politics. Jakrapob then speculated that Thaksin might be willing to make a deal with the palace or its surrogates whereby the Democrat Party could run the government. If Thaksin refused that deal, Jakrapob speculated that the anti-Thaksin cabal would continue to place pressure on Thaksin and his allies through PAD demonstrations and the aggressive pursuit of legal cases against Thaksin. ¶7. (C/NF) Comment: In our discussion, Jakrapob did not resolve the seeming contradiction between his assertion that Thaksin was out of politics and his speculation that Thaksin might make a deal that determines who governs Thailand. In an early June lunch meeting, Thaksin told the Australian Ambassador to Thailand that he was out of politics, although Thaksin also characterized himself as directing political and economic events -- "driving from the back seat," according to an Australian diplomat present. This portrayal of Thaksin as engaged in politics while formally uninvolved tracks with the impression he conveyed to the U.S. Ambassador in late April -- see ref E. End Comment. REMARKS ABOUT THE ROYAL FAMILY AND GENERAL PRAYUT -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) We also asked Jakrapob about the widespread rumors that First Army Commander General Prayut Chan-ocha would have a leading role in the event of a military coup d'etat (ref C). Jakrapob explained this view by referring to a close personal bond that Prayut had reportedly formed with the Queen during his service with the Queen's Regiment. Jakrapob alleged that this close relationship had allowed Prayut to maintain direct contact with the Queen, who is widely thought to support a confrontational approach to the current government. The Queen fueled this perception when, accompanied by Army Commander Anupong Paojinda, she visited the "War Victory Temple" (Wat Channa Songkram) on the May 19 Buddhist holiday. That temple is not the traditional venue for the royal family on this holiday, but is normally a place where people pray before going into a battle of one sort or another. ¶9. (C/NF) In a tangential aside, Jakrapob noted that, prior to his resignation, he had accompanied visiting Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein to an April 30 audience with the King (ref D). Jakrapob said that, at that audience, the King had appeared in excellent condition and was mentally sharp. Jakrapob added, seemingly based on hearsay, that the King has "good days and bad days." COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) The public portrayal of Jakrapob as disloyal to the King helped to energize anti-government sentiment. Jakrapob's resignation, combined with the government's decision to postpone constitutional amendment procedures, lowered tension somewhat, although the PAD continues its rallies and appears eager to find new ways to attack the Samak administration. While Jakrapob did not directly insult the King in the remarks that led to the lese majeste charge, he does believe it would be appropriate to diminish the BANGKOK 00001879 003 OF 003 palace's stature and informal political role. In his mind, the fact that voicing this view could land him in prison illustrates clearly his point. ENTWISTLE