AMBASSADOR AND FORMER PM SURAYUD DISCUSS POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001693

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF KDEM ECON TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND FORMER PM SURAYUD DISCUSS POLITICAL
SITUATION

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Ambassador called on Privy Councilor Surayud
Chulanont on June 3. Responding to the Ambassador's concern
over the polarized political environment, Surayud said that
he hoped both sides could enhance their communication.
Although he did not know how best to resolve the tension
between the government and its opponents, Surayud said he did
not foresee a violent confrontation. The Ambassador and
Surayud agreed the political climate impeded economic
progress. The Ambassador also emphasized his interest in the
welfare of refugees in Thailand. End Summary.

BACK ON THE PRIVY COUNCIL
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2. (C) The Ambassador opened his June 3 call on former Prime
Minister Surayud Chulanont by congratulating him on his
reappointment as Privy Councilor and asking him if, in that
capacity, he had particular areas on which he was focusing.
Surayud said that, given his military background, he tended
to concentrate on security issues, but his recent term as
Prime Minister enabled him also to contribute to analysis of
the general situation. Surayud indicated that the Privy
Council did not formally divide responsibilities, saying the
Councilors work together "as one team."

POLARIZED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
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3. (C) The Ambassador observed that the political situation
in Thailand now appeared highly polarized. Remarking that
the USG and Thais alike did not want to see another coup
d'etat or violence, he asked Surayud's view of how to find a
way for the pro- and anti-Thaksin sides to compromise.
Surayud acknowledged that the current environment was
"difficult." He recommended in broad terms that both sides
meet frequently and work to resolve their differences "little
by little." He also said that a recent move in the House of
Representatives to form a committee on constitutional reform
seemed to represent a positive step. He also noted that the
new Speaker of the House, Chai Chidchob, had told him
recently that he was interested in facilitating dialogue and
compromise between the two sides.


4. (C) When the Ambassador asked if anyone might step forward
to help mediate between the two sides, Surayud said he could
not identify anyone suited for the role. He added that he
had recently spoken with former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra at a funeral ceremony and advised him that the
best way to improve the political climate was to promote an
inclusive approach focused on what was good for the country.
Surayud acknowledged that, with the Privy Council ostensibly
being an apolitical institution, it was difficult for him to
do more than to pass that basic message. Most of his
interlocutors agreed that communication represented the best
approach, Surayud said, and he doubted there would be
violence.

THE ECONOMY
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5. (C) The Ambassador explained his desire to promote good
governance and economic growth, noting that Thailand was in
an increasingly competitive region; political instability
would make it all the more difficult to attract badly-needed
foreign investment. Surayud agreed, noting that even Thai
businessmen were waiting to see what developed before
committing to major projects.

REFUGEES
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6. (C) Citing strong interest in refugee matters in both the
U.S. Administration and the Congress, the Ambassador
explained his desire to encourage the welfare and protection
of refugees in Thailand. He noted that the Lao government
could simplify the return of ethnic Hmong Lao economic
migrants in Thailand if it were to adopt a system for the

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transparent monitoring of returnees. He encouraged enhanced
cooperation between the RTG and USG on refugee issues.
Surayud mentioned his longstanding involvement in refugee
matters and opined that the Lao seemed increasingly open,
interested in engaging their neighbors, and able to overcome
their longstanding fear of economic domination by Thailand.

VIEW OF SAMAK
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7. (C) The Ambassador explained that Secretary of Defense
Gates had just concluded a productive visit to Thailand.
Surayud said he was aware of the visit. He characterized
Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej -- who, concurrently serving
as Defense Minister, was the Secretary's counterpart -- as a
"good guy." Surayud added that Samak sometimes reacted
strongly if one broached certain topics (NFI),so Surayud
tried to avoid those, but he maintained an overall positive
view of Samak.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Looking relaxed and rested, Surayud did not appear to
view Thailand as being on the brink of a political precipice.
He seems to have understood that the December election, for
which he was a leading advocate, would not resolve all of
Thailand's problems; rather, it represented one (major) step
in a long process of political bargaining and reconciliation
whose end is not yet in sight.
JOHN