CONFLICT OVER CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001619

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: CONFLICT OVER CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT CONTINUES

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Minor clashes marred the otherwise peaceful
rally by opponents of the current government on May 25. The
anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will
continue demonstrating to rally opposition to the government
and its plans to amend the 2007 Constitution. PM Samak won
the Cabinet's support for his plan to hold a referendum on
the amendment proposal, but there remain some legal obstacles
to overcome before the referendum can be scheduled. The Army
commander has repeatedly emphasized the army's neutrality,
but former coup plotter GEN Saphrang told the press that the
army could not remain complacent if the police were unable to
control violence resulting from street protests. Bangkok is
relieved that the weekend passed without serious
confrontations, but neither side has conceded anything, and
the political struggle continues. END SUMMARY.

DEMONSTRATION
--------------


2. (C) Minor but disturbing clashes marred an otherwise
peaceful protest by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
on May 25. The size of the PAD crowd was variously estimated
at 5000 (Bangkok Post),12-15,000 (police) and 30,000 (PAD
and mass circulation daily Thai Rath); we think the police
estimate is probably the closest to correct. The crowd
included many middle-aged and apparently middle-class PAD
supporters wearing yellow (to show support for the King),
families with small children, and a strong contingent of
young men, identified by arm bands, to provide security. PAD
supporters distributed yellow headbands and kerchiefs bearing
the words "defender of the country" (in Thai, this fits on a
headband),reviving a practice from the 2005-2006 protests.
The demonstrators gathered at the iconic Democracy Monument
from mid-afternoon until about 9 pm, and then tried to march
on Government House to deliver a petition to impeach the MPs
and Senators who have submitted a motion to amend the
constitution. A crowd of about 200 counter-demonstrators
gathered at the edge of the PAD protest throughout the day,
hurling abuse at the PAD. Hundreds of police, including some
riot police, were on hand to maintain order, but they
appeared to have a difficult time keeping the two sides
separate. Several scuffles broke out, but only minor
injuries have been reported. The demonstrators also threw
bottles and stones at each other.


3. (C) The PAD demonstrators were blocked from reaching
Government House by police, and decided not to try to march
on the Parliament, another planned destination. According to
PAD contacts, the rear guard of their march suffered further
minor assaults from counter-protesters, and they complained
that the police did not do enough to prevent this. A small
number of PAD protesters have vowed to remain camped out at
the Makkawan Bridge (a major intersection); based on past
practice, they are likely to be joined each evening by
additional supporters. From press reports, it appears that a
large number of supporters, perhaps thousands, swelled the
crowd on Monday evening again. During the day, several
hundred protesters remain, many of them religious followers
of the strict Buddhist sect led by PAD leader Chamlong
Srimuang. (This group, known as the Dharma Army, played a
role in the 2005-2006 protests as well. As many adherents of
the sect have no jobs and live communally and monastically,
they are able to provide manpower for long-term
demonstrations like this one.)


4. (C) In a positive move, PM Samak Sundaravej told the press
that he would not use emergency powers to remove the
demonstrators. Army commander Anupong has expressed
confidence in the ability of the police to handle the
demonstrations, and reiterated the Army's neutrality. Former
coup plotter GEN Saphrang, deputy permanent secretary at the
MOD, reportedly told the press on Monday that he was
concerned about the legitimacy of the constitutional
amendment process, as also worried about violent clashes,
warning that the military cannot be complacent if the police
cannot maintain order.

AMENDMENT PLANS
--------------


5. (C) PM Samak, in the meantime, continues to press
forward with plans to amend the constitution. While other
members of his People's Power Party (PPP) have submitted a
petition to the House Speaker in support of extensive

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amendments, PM Samak has advocated for a referendum in July
to ask the public for its views on the amendment proposal.
The Cabinet voted on May 27 to support the referendum plan,
according to news reports. One obstacle to Samak's plan is
that there is currently no referendum law - the previous
referendum law was linked to the previous constitution, and
is therefore no longer in effect. A new law, based on the
current constitution, is supposed to be drafted and adopted
by the Parliament, but work has not begun on this law yet.
The government will consider several ways to address this
problem, perhaps by rushing through a new law or somehow
resuscitating the old one. It is difficult to see how a new
law can be drafted and passed, and a referendum held, all by
July, as Samak has proposed. It appears that, under Samak's
plan, the voters would not have a copy of the proposed
amendments in hand when they voted; the referendum would ask
the voters, essentially, for a blank check to allow the
Parliament to amend the charter however it decided -- a power
that the Parliament already has anyway. (Comment: Samak
appears to believe that the referendum would give the PPP
political cover to proceed with far-ranging amendments.
Samak's decision to press for such a costly plan seems to
show that PPP is not confident it can get the amendments
through the Parliament. End comment.)


6. (C) Several of the Senators who signed the petition in
favor of amending the constitution have now withdrawn their
support, claiming they were misinformed about the content of
the petition. A PPP contact of the Australian embassy told
them that the PPP's margin of support for the amendment
proposal was thin, indicating that there were issues both
with the coalition partners and within the PPP. There are
increasing calls in the media for a truly consultative
process, starting with the formation of a drafting assembly
that would include legal scholars and other experts.


7. (C) Comment: Most here are relieved that the weekend's
demonstration passed without a significant confrontation
between the two sides. Neither side has conceded anything,
however, and the political struggle continues. Samak seems
set on holding a referendum to give the PPP political cover
for proceeding with its amendment plan. This may work, but
it is a cumbersome (not to mention, expensive) way to deflect
criticism, and it could backfire if the referendum is viewed
as illegitimate.
JOHN