PRIVY COUNCILOR COMMENTS ON POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 001521

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR TH
SUBJECT: PRIVY COUNCILOR COMMENTS ON POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a lunch meeting on May 15, the
Ambassador briefed Privy Council President Prem on US
assistance for Burmese cyclone victims, and underscored our
concerns about the possibility of another coup. GEN Prem
showed great interest in US humanitarian relief efforts. He
strongly denied that there would be another coup in Thailand.
Contrary to some press reports, Prem appeared to be in
generally good health. Prem, who is generally believed to
have provided at least moral support for the 2006 coup, has
kept a low profile in recent months. Nonetheless, he remains
very influential, and we believe it was useful to underscore
to him our concerns over the rumors of another military
intervention. END SUMMARY


2. (C) During a lunch with Ambassador on May 15, Privy
Council President GEN Prem Tinsulanonda commented somewhat
more candidly than usual on the current political situation.
Prem, who has been the target of fierce criticism from Prime
Minister Samak Sundaravej, displayed more bemusement than
anger in commenting on the outspoken and loquacious PM.
Samak has positioned himself politically as a die-hard
monarchist and boasts of his family's Palace connections. In
light of this, the Ambassador asked whether Samak actually
enjoyed a close relationship with the King. (The Ambassador
also asked whether Samak, during the PM's regular audiences
with the King, delivered the same long monologues that he
often did when meeting foreign officials.) Prem said that
the PM did not have a special relationship with the King,
that he did indeed talk at great length during the royal
audiences, but added that, "the King doesn't mind listening
to him." Prem also showed no animus to the new Parliament
speaker, elected to replace Yongyuth Tiyaphairat, who faces
possible disqualification for alleged election fraud
(septel). Prem described the 80-year-old Chai Chidchop, a
stalwart of the ruling People's Power Party (PPP),as a hard
worker who could learn to handle the speakership.


3. (C) The Ambassador noted the disquieting public
speculation about the possibility of another coup, and
emphasized how disastrous this would be for Thailand. Prem
replied firmly that we should not pay any attention to these
rumors, and affirmed that there would not/not be another
coup.


4. (C) GEN Prem showed a great interest in the US assistance
to Burma cyclone victims, asking about our relief efforts,
and about any obstacles put in place by the Burmese
government. Prem clearly appreciated a read-out on the Cobra
Gold exercise.


5. (C) Comment: We will continue to make clear our concerns
about the overheated coup rhetoric currently circulating. We
cannot expect much candor from the usually enigmatic GEN
Prem, but at least he said the right things in this meeting.
During the political crisis of 2006, Prem made several
controversial speeches that some thought encouraged the
military to act against the Thaksin government, and he is
widely believed to have given moral support, at least, to the
coup plotters. He has kept a much lower profile in recent
months --fortunately, in our view -- but he remains extremely
influential, and we believe it was useful to have the
opportunity to underscore to him the disastrous implications
of another military intervention. End comment.


6. (SBU) Bio note: The press reported that Prem had been
hospitalized with a possible serious illness last month, but
he appeared to be in reasonably good health for a man in his
80's. He was suffering from laryngitis and spoke very softly,
consistent with the official reports that he was only
suffering from bronchitis.

JOHN