AMBASSADOR PRESSES RTG ON BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001327 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH BM SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR PRESSES RTG ON BURMA REF: A. STATE 45471 (FLAWED REFERENDUM) ¶B. AMB JOHN-WILDER TELCON 4/29/08 Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: I spoke separately to the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, asking them to use the occasion of the Burmese Prime Minister's visit to advocate for genuine democratic reform in Burma. The PM said he was prepared to be a messenger for the West, but clearly has his own ideas about how to encourage positive change in Burma. The FM planned to advocate for UN SYG special representative Gambari's return to Burma, and said he would urge Burma to release ASSK. We will continue to press the Thai to use their influence, to the extend possible, in support of democratic reform in Burma. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) I called Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on April 30 to urge him to use the occasion of the Burmese PM visit to press for genuine democratic reform in Burma. Drawing on reftel talking points and reftelcon, I also stressed the President's interest in Samak personally pushing for real democracy in Burma, not just adherence to the regime's sham roadmap. Speaking informally, Samak replied that he did not intend to "follow the roadmap," although he did not state clearly what course he would advocate. He said he was trying to balance Western interests and those of ASEAN, and to play "a messenger role on behalf of the West." Consistent with his prior statements, he said he wanted to give the Burmese a "helping hand" to assist in their democratization. ¶3. (C) Discussing his approach to Burma, Samak gave an example from a recent meeting. Referring to remarks that he had made at the March 30-31 Greater Mekong Sub-region summit in Vientiane, Samak said that the Burmese should have "an opportunity;" "if they behave" they could then host a high-level GMS meeting. (Comment: We are trying to track down any relevant point that Samak might have made in Vientiane; given that the focus of the summit was on trade, development, and environmental issues, any remarks Samak made relating to political developments in Burma likely were unscripted. Samak appears to be saying that offering the Burmese incentives like hosting international meetings would encourage greater progress on democracy. End Comment.) ¶4. (C) I also noted the President's concern and hope that Thailand will not endorse the May 10 referendum. Samak appeared unprepared to make any strong statement before the vote. "It just goes ahead, and we'll see what happens," he said. He added that he would continue to bear in mind the President's concern, however, and he reiterated his interest in remaining "a messenger" between the West and Burma. "Just let me do my job," he said. Before I could elaborate on USG concerns, Samak, who was clearly pressed for time, indicated he had to end the call. (Embassy officials will discuss reftel points in greater detail with other RTG officials as soon as possible.) ¶5. (C) I also spoke to Foreign Minister Noppadon at greater length on April 30, going through the key points from reftel. The Foreign Minister said that RTG officials were urging the Burmese to make the referendum inclusive and transparent. He cautioned that the Thai could not be publicly critical of the referendum while the Burmese PM was here. I underscored that, at a minimum, we certainly wanted other countries not to welcome the referendum as genuine progress toward democracy. Noppadon agreed. ¶6. (C) I asked him what PM Thein Sein was like during the visit so far. Noppadon said the Burmese PM was not ready to engage in substantive discussion -- he just "reads his points." He appeared to be on a short leash. Noppadon would host Foreign Minister Nyan Win for dinner tonight and planned to raise points that Gambari had wanted raised, including the release of ASSK, a visa for Gambari to return and approval for Gambari to open an office in Rangoon. Noppadon said Thein Sein had assured his Thai interlocutors that the referendum process was inclusive and fair. Thein Sein had explained that, by holding the referendum now, there would be ample time to arrange for the new elections in two years. ¶7. (C) Comment: Samak appears to understand our position but, like many of Burma's neighbors, promotes the view that incentives and some degree of engagement will be more effective than SANCTIONS and criticism in promoting positive change in Burma. Realistically, he may also feel he has limited room to maneuver on Burma, given Thailand's BANGKOK 00001327 002 OF 002 dependence on Burmese energy and the wide range of bilateral and multilateral issues involving the two countries. We welcome the Foreign Minister's support for the Gambari points, as well as public comments he made today urging a credible, free and fair referendum. We will continue pressing at the highest levels for RTG assistance in promoting reform in Burma. JOHN