MFA ON INTRA-ASEAN RELATIONS, IMPORTANCE OF US ROLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001283

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: MFA ON INTRA-ASEAN RELATIONS, IMPORTANCE OF US ROLE

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrukul
met with DOD A/S James Shinn and DAS James Clad on April 22.
He encouraged the US to strengthen its engagement in the
region, suggesting the establishment of a regular US-ASEAN
Defense Ministers meeting, and increased joint training for
humanitarian disasters as two ideas to consider. Virasakdi
said that relations with Malaysia had improved, which helped
Thailand deal with its ethnic Malay insurgency in the South.
Virasakdi said that Thai PM had talked to Burmese junta
leader Than Shwe about Thailand's transition to democracy,
but Virasakdi believed the Burmese were more interested in
imitating Suharto-era Indonesia. As ASEAN chair, Thailand is
likely to support and encourage greater US engagement in the
region. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) MFA Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrukul discussed
Thailand's plans as ASEAN chair during a meeting with DOD A/S
James Shinn and DAS Clad on April 22. Permsec Virasakdi said
that Thailand and other countries in the grouping wanted to
focus on making ASEAN better known among the people in the
member countries themselves, and Thailand would try to
emphasize the theme of a "people-based" ASEAN. Thailand is
also considering the theme for the East Asia Summit meeting
this year. Last year, Singapore as ASEAN chair had chosen
climate change as their focus. Thailand would likely focus
on "human security," including both financial security and
food security as topics for consideration.

SUPPORT FOR US ENGAGEMENT
--------------


3. (C) Virasakdi showed a strong interest in keeping the US
closely engaged in the region. He welcomed the expected
visit of Defense Secretary Gates to Thailand on June 1,
saying that this would help to assure the other ASEAN
countries of continuing US interest. "All of us are concerned
about China," Virasakdi said, and are eager to see a US role
as a counterbalance. ASEAN was formed, he said, to prevent
the countries of Southeast Asia from being squeezed between
China and India. He pointed out that China had devoted
significant energy to its relationship with ASEAN. Every
year, China had rolled out a new initiative, such as acceding
to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, or setting up an
periodic consultation with the ASEAN Defense Ministers.
Virasakdi noted that other ASEAN partner countries had
acceded to the TAC or were in the process of doing so, except
for the US. He suggested that the US consider a US-ASEAN
defense ministers meeting -- perhaps not as an annual event,
but on some regular basis. He agreed that such a meeting
could perhaps take place as a stand-alone event with
"regional" defense ministers, rather than as a formal ASEAN
event, in order to finesse the problem of Burmese
participation. DASD Clad noted that dealing with the
question of Burma's participation in such a meeting would be
an issue, but that the suggestion merited consideration.


4. (C) A/S Shinn noted that, even as ASEAN integration
deepened, most defense relationships were still bilateral.
He asked what the next level of "ASEAN-level engagement"
might be. Virasakdi suggested working on humanitarian
cooperation, holding up the relief efforts in the wake of the
2004 tsunami as an example. MFA Americas DG Nongnuth also
raised the possibility of cooperation on security in the
Straits of Malacca. In response to a question, Virasakdi
noted that, if the US decided it would like to join the East
Asia Summit, then Thailand would be ready to discuss ways to
help.

BURMA
--------------


5. (C) The Permsec provided further reporting on Prime
Minister Samak's visit to Burma last month. He said that the
PM had spent most of his private meeting with Burmese leader
Than Shwe describing Thailand's democratic development.
(Virasakdi noted that the 72-year-old Samak had been
personally involved in much of that history.) Than Shwe had
responded by describing the plans for the referendum and the
election. Virasakdi believed that the generals "had learned
from the last election" and were prepared for the upcoming
polls. He thought they were following the model of Indonesia
under Suharto, and planned to turn their USDA mass movement
into a political party, like Golkar. In any case, he said,

BANGKOK 00001283 002 OF 002


the constitution would give the military guaranteed seats in
the Parliament, and the military leader the right to declare
a state of emergency at any time and seize control of power
-- so there would be no need for a coup.


6. (C) In Virasakdi's view, Burma does not want to be
exclusively dependent on China. He pointed to the recent
visit of junta number 2 Maung Aye to India, where the two
countries signed a deal for the development of a port. He
said the US should encourage India to get more engaged with
Burma, as a counterbalance to China. DASD Clad pointed out,
however, that US policy is in fact to discourage this kind of
engagement. He also noted that India is not satisfied with
its relationship with Burma. Virasakdi praised the role of
Indonesia, which sees itself as a possible model for Burma's
transition. Thailand is likely to support Indonesian
initiatives to find a regional solution for the Burma
problem. "Why not?" he said, "The Gambari process doesn't
seem to be going anywhere." Virasakdi thought it would be
useful to "bring out" junta leaders and "let them see some
alternatives."

MALAYSIA AND THE SOUTH
--------------


7. (C) Discussing other countries in the region, Virasakdi
said that the relationship with Malaysia had greatly improved
after the difficulties in 2005-2006, provoked by Malaysia's
concerns over the treatment of ethnic Malays in Thailand's
troubled southern provinces. Coup-installed PM Surayud had
worked very effectively to repair the damage, and Malaysia
and Thailand now enjoyed good cooperation. Virasakdi felt
that Malaysia "controlled" the old insurgent leaders who were
part of PULO, but that PULO had no control over the BRN-C,
which was carrying out the actual attacks. BRN-C, in turn,
did not trust Malaysia. Thailand's strategy was to trumpet
its good relationship with Malaysia, and thus deepen the
BRN-C's distrust, so the insurgents would be reluctant to use
Malaysian soil as a safe haven. Virasakdi acknowledged that
this was a difficult issue for Malaysia, given the sympathy
many Malaysians had for the ethnic Malays in southern
Thailand. Virasakdi was concerned, however, that the new Thai
government might not maintain these good relations with
Malaysia, as some Thai officials are suspicious of their
neighbor. Virasakdi hoped that PM Samak's April 23/24 visit
to Malaysia would help to overcome that suspicion and keep
the relationship on an even keel.
COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Virasakdi's points covered little new ground,
particularly on Burma, but we appreciated his frank
assessment of the value of increased US engagement in the
region. During Thailand's chairmanship of ASEAN, we will
have a well-positioned ally who welcomes a continued strong
US role in Asia.


9. (U) A/S Shinn cleared this cable.
JOHN