SULTAN SAYS BRUNEI WILL STAY IN PHILIPPINES IMT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 000131 SIPDIS SIPDIS SINGAPORE FOR DAO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 TAGS: MARR PREL RP BX SUBJECT: SULTAN SAYS BRUNEI WILL STAY IN PHILIPPINES IMT EVEN IF MALAYSIA WITHDRAWS REF: A. MANILA 885 NOTAL ¶B. MANILA 1021 NOTAL ¶C. KUALA LUMPUR 336 NOTAL ¶D. POST SIPRNET SITE 4-28-08 ¶E. 07 BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 252 NOTAL Classified By: Ambassador Emil M. Skodon for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST: After a confused initial Bruneian reaction to Malaysia's announcement that it will begin a phased withdrawal of its peacekeeping troops from the International Monitoring Team (IMT) in Mindanao, the Sultan of Brunei has reportedly decided that Royal Brunei Armed Forces (RBAF) participation in the IMT will continue and may even be expanded to make up for the departing Malaysians. Final para of this cable contains a recommendation to consider involving the RBAF IMT contingent in Cotabato City with the forthcoming visit by the USNS Mercy, both to take advantage of its contacts with the local Muslim population and to help bolster Brunei's intent to continue its IMT mission. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) According to contacts in the Ministry of Defence (MOD),Malaysia's April 22 announcement that it would begin a phased withdrawal of its peacekeepers from the IMT caught the Government of Brunei (GOB) by surprise. The GOB had known for some time that the Malaysians were considering such a move but was not informed in advance of the announcement itself, despite the fact that the RBAF contingent in the IMT is under Malaysian command. ¶3. (C) The lack of advance warning led to a confused reaction by the MOD. On April 24, the Borneo Bulletin daily quoted an MOD spokesperson as saying "Brunei will probably pull its men out of Mindanao if Malaysia does." Privately, operational-level RBAF officers said they also assumed this would be the case. Their civilian leadership, however, had other ideas. Deputy Minister of Defence Pehin Yasmin (de facto head of the MOD, since the Sultan is titular Defence Minister) was reportedly furious at the announcement by the MOD spokesperson. He instructed that a retraction of the spokesperson's statement be issued. It was printed in the Borneo Bulletin on April 25, albeit tucked away on a back page. ¶4. (C) As reported ref D, Yasmin himself at first concluded that the Malaysian announcement was just a ploy to put political pressure on the Government of the Philippines to conclude a peace deal soon with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). According to the Chief of Mission of a western Embassy who debriefed the Ambassador on his April 25 meeting with Yasmin, the Deputy Minister said the Malaysians were worried about opposition to such a deal within Philippines political circles. Such opposition, they felt, was based more on a desire to embarrass President Arroyo for domestic political purposes than on the merits of any peace agreement. By threatening to pull out of the IMT, Yasmin believed that Kuala Lumpur was trying to make the point to Arroyo's opponents that the status quo was unsustainable and a peace agreement should not be held hostage to their parochial political interests. Yasmin reportedly said that the RBAF IMT contingent could continue operating even if the Malaysians did pull out. He also, however, ducked the question about whether or not they actually would do so by explaining to the Chief of Mission that things would never get to that point, since Kuala Lumpur was only bluffing to put pressure on Manila. ¶5. (C) Over the next few days the Bruneians apparently came around to a different view than Yasmin's original conclusion. MOD contacts and Philippines Ambassador Benavidez began saying privately that the Malaysians were serious about pulling out, and Benavidez told Ambassador that her government was asking the GOB to stay on even if Malaysia withdrew. According to the UK High Commission here, on April 27 the visiting UK Chief of Defense Staff, Air Chief Marshall Sir Jock Stirrup, raised the issue with Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah during his courtesy call on the Sultan. The Sultan's answer was unequivocal: the RBAF would stay on in the IMT even if Malaysia withdrew, and even would consider building up is contingent as a partial replacement for the departing Malaysians. In response to a follow-up question, Sultan BANDAR SER 00000131 002 OF 002 Bolkiah reportedly said that the GOB would even consider taking over the IMT lead from Malaysia, although, given its capacity constraints, it would much prefer that another country assume this role. ¶6. (C) Comment: There is no such thing as a final decision in Brunei. Supposedly "final" decisions by the Sultan have been reversed by him or frustrated by his bureaucracy in the past, and there is always the possibility that the same could happen with respect to the IMT deployment. For now, however, it appears that the GOB intent is to remain committed to the IMT. The UK High Comm and we agree that the Sultan's decision reflects the GOB's increasing confidence in the RBAF's ability to carry out peacekeeping missions, based on the practical experience it has gained in Mindanao and the effort it has made to upgrade its peacekeeping capabilities through training opportunities such as the recently concluded Shanti Doot multilateral PKO exercise in Bangladesh. End Comment. ¶7. (C) Action Request: We note from Ref A that the USNS Mercy plans to pay a port call in Cotabato City May 29 - June ¶14. That is where the bulk of the RBAF IMT contingent is stationed. The Philippines Ambassador here says the Bruneians have done an admirable job of building good relations with Cotabato's Muslim population via distribution of Korans and other activities. Embassy recommends that we consider inviting the Bruneian IMT contingent to become involved in supporting the USNS Mercy visit, both to benefit from its local contacts and to signal support for continued RBAF participation in the IMT in the wake of the Malaysian withdrawal announcement. If Embassy Manila agrees this is feasible and desirable, we request instructions to approach the GOB with an invitation to become involved in the Mercy visit, and to provide it with a point of contact and preliminary suggestions for how the GOB could coordinate such support with Embassy Manila and the USNS Mercy. Please advise. Visit Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan's classified web site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/bandarseribeg awan/ SKODON SKODON