BRUNEI TO "LISTEN" TO VISITING BURMA PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 000012 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/MTS, AND IO/UNP E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2018 TAGS: PREL BM BX SUBJECT: BRUNEI TO "LISTEN" TO VISITING BURMA PM REF: RANGOON 5 Classified By: Ambassador Emil Skodon, reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador called on Ministry of Foreign Affairs Permanent Secretary Pengiran Dato Osman Patra on January 9 to urge that the Government of Brunei (GoB) challenge Burma Prime Minister Thein Sein about decreased regime cooperation with UN Special Envoy Gambari during Thein Sein's visit to Brunei next week. Osman welcomed the briefing on the deteriorating situation on the ground in Burma (drawn from reftel) and responded that the GoB would want to listen to what Thein Sein had to say and compare it to what is actually happening on the ground. Osman noted that ASEAN's next opportunity to challenge the regime to live up to its commitments for dialogue with Gambari will be at the Foreign Ministers' meeting in Singapore in February. The Ambassador also urged the GoB to avoid any new economic deals with Burma, which the regime would take as an endorsement of its attempt to return to the pre-September status quo. END SUMMARY. -------------- Thein Sein to Visit Brunei -------------- ¶2. (C) In a January 9 call on Pengiran Dato Osman Patra, Permanent Secretary with responsibility for ASEAN at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MoFAT),the Ambassador, accompanied by DCM, briefed (based on Ref A) on the deteriorating situation on the ground in Burma, including regime's indication that it would be too busy to host a visit by UN Special Envoy Gambari before April. The Ambassador noted that ASEAN had accepted the regime's request to make the UN and Gambari the primary dialogue partner to find a way forward after the events of September. However, regime actions have made it increasingly clear that Than Shwe is trying to walk back to the pre-September status quo and was not taking Gambari seriously. Ambassador asked what ASEAN's next step would be now that Burma's leaders were refusing to engage in the dialogue that ASEAN was supposed to be supporting. ¶3. (C) Osman welcomed the briefing and responded that when Gambari had briefed ASEAN leaders in November, he had been optimistic that he had achieved a level of trust with the regime and that behavioral change was possible. Since then, Osman said, the GoB had been monitoring regime speeches and actions and had noted the flux between the optimism of November and the current situation. ¶4. (C) Osman said that Burma Prime Minister Thein Sein is scheduled to come to Brunei next week for a long-delayed, two-day visit, indicating that the timing was not in any way an attempt to send a signal. (COMMENT: Although the visit has not been publicly announced, tips from MoFAT contacts that it had been scheduled prompted Ambassador's call on Osman. END COMMENT.) Osman said the GoB wants to listen to what Thein Sein has to say about what is happening on the ground and compare it to the ground truth. Osman speculated that Than Shwe may not be getting accurate information about what really happened in September, and that could be coloring the approach he has taken in responding to international calls for dialogue with the opposition. The Ambassador noted that a Thein Sein visit would be an excellent opportunity for the GoB to deliver a clear message to Burma's leadership about ongoing international concern about the crackdown on dissidents and lack of a meaningful political dialogue. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador acknowledged Brunei's general policy of avoiding the use of economic sanctions, but urged the GoB to avoid moving forward on any new business deals with Burma. He cautioned that Burma would take any positive news as an endorsement of its attempt to return to the status quo. -------------- ASEAN Can Engage -------------- ¶6. (C) Osman noted that the February ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in Singapore will be ASEAN's next good opportunity to re-engage with Burma. He commented that at the November ASEAN leaders meeting, the Burmese had made a tactical mistake of saying that they wanted Gambari to report to the UN Security Council, not ASEAN or the East Asia Summit. Having ceded that ground, the regime would now need to show BANDAR SER 00000012 002 OF 002 progress to the UNSC and could not triangulate as effectively using ASEAN. Osman also said that it is increasingly clear that expectations China could do more have not been met. -------------- COMMENT: ASEAN Must Carry the Water -------------- ¶7. (C) Osman appeared unaware of how badly the situation in Burma had regressed since Gambari's optimistic comments to ASEAN in November. While our dialogue with Pengiran Dato Osman will help cause the GoB to listen with critical ears to what Thein Sein has to say, it would be out of character for the GoB to deliver a strongly critical message to the Burma regime in a bilateral context. However, we think we have primed the GoB to be more receptive to an ASEAN tougher love approach to the regime, if more activist members like Singapore and the Philippines press for it. SKODON