OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER'S TALLY OF PUBLIC OPINION IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000812 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ML SUBJECT: OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER'S TALLY OF PUBLIC OPINION IN MALI ¶1. Summary: On September 18 Info-Matin, a Malian daily often highly critical of President Amadou Toumani Toure, published the results of its annual pseudo-scientific public opinion poll. The poll asked readers' opinions on a variety of issues including President Toure's management of the Tuareg crisis, the oft-postponed Head of State security summit, the Government of Mali's response to rising food prices, and perceptions of individual government Ministers. The 1800 respondents who participated in "Malian on the street" interviews generally proved more critical of the Malian government and its policies. The 4400 individuals who either telephoned in or delivered written responses directly to Info-Matin's office, however, overwhelmingly supported key government initiatives, including negotiations with Tuareg rebels and price controls on rice, raising some suspicions of a write-in attempt to influence the survey results. End Summary. -------------- Opinions on Northern Security -------------- ¶2. Although not specifically aligned with the opposition Rally for Mali (RPM) party led by former National Assembly president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, Info-Matin often stakes out positions in line with RPM perspectives. Info-Matin's daily circulation is estimated at somewhere between 3000 to 5000 copies, limited to the capital city of Bamako. The newspaper's 2008 opinion poll focused on perceptions of the Malian Prime Minister, Modibo Sidibe, and key government initiatives including President Toure's support for a negotiated solution with Tuareg rebels. ¶3. Nearly 80 percent of the 1800 individuals questioned during on the street interviews said they did not believe President Toure's oft-discussed and more oft-delayed Head of State summit on Sahel-Saharan security would bring peace to northern Mali. Conversely, more than 75 percent of the 4400 who submitted write-in responses said they believed the summit would result in peace. More than 80 percent of on the street respondents opposed any "new" peace agreement with Tuareg rebels; only 26 percent of write-in respondents shared this view. On the street and write-in respondents proved equally skeptical of the current round of Algerian mediated negotiations with the rebels, with a majority of each group rating the likelihood of success as low. More than 77 percent of street respondents rated Mali's policy of dialogue with the rebels as "bad", an opinion shared by only 18 percent of write-in respondents. -------------- Views of President Toure's Ministers -------------- ¶4. The poll coincided with the one year anniversary of President Toure's nomination of Modibo Sidibe as Prime Minister and Sidibe bore the brunt of most respondents' frustrations with their government. More than 78 percent of street respondents said they were not satisfied with Sidibe's performance as PM and 75 percent said Sidibe should be removed during the next Ministerial reshuffle. Almost 82 percent of write in respondents declared themselves dissatisfied with Sidibe, but only 41 percent of this group thought Sidibe's performance merited removal from office. ¶5. Sidibe's low popularity level could be linked to his apparently equally unpopular program, dubbed the "rice initiative", to lessen the impact of rising cereal prices for average Malians. The rice project seeks to increase rice production by subsidizing inputs for rice farmers. More than 70 percent of street respondents said they thought the rice initiative was not a good solution to the rising cost of living. However, these percentages were reversed by write in respondents, with 86 percent rating the rice initiative as good and only 11 percent assessing it as bad. ¶6. Opinions varied on which of Mali's other 26 Ministers most deserved to remain in place. Minister of Energy and Mines, Ahmed Sow, despite being under a cloud of allegations of corruption stemming from his previous job overseeing an African investment project funded by the European Union, won the most votes from the street with a little more than 15 percent. In the write-in ballots Minister Sow finished a close second to Minister of Urbanism Salimata Gakou Fofana. Foreign Minister Moctar Ouane finished a respectable fourth. The least popular, or perhaps simply the most unknown, Minister was Justice Minister Maharafa Traore. -------------- -------------- Comment: A Measure of Public Opinion or Private Ingenuity? -------------- -------------- BAMAKO 00000812 002 OF 002 ¶7. Info-Matin's poll seems to reflect a general skepticism over President Toure's decision to negotiate with Tuareg rebels and Prime Minister Modibo Sidibe's first year in office. Dissatisfaction with the Malian government, however, does not seem to be as pronounced as other issues and headlines of Info-Matin would lead one to believe. Perhaps the poll's most interesting result, however, was the swing between the 1800 individuals who participated in street interviews and the 4400 responses submitted directly to Info-Matin. In so far as statistics go, the 1800 responses from street interviews probably provide a more reliable measure of Malian public opinion. However, the ratio of write-in responses to street interviews was more than two to one - a fact which significantly altered the poll's overall result. The overwhelming number of write-ins raised suspicion of a possible attempt by a resourceful individual to influence the direction of the poll's findings by flooding Info-Matin's offices with written responses; or it could simply reflect a genuine divergence of opinion separating those willing to send in written ballots as opposed to the average citizen on the street whose literacy and education level is likely somewhat lower than that of the average Info-Matin subscriber. LEONARD