TUAREG LEADERS TRY TO SECURE PRISONER RELEASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000721 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018 TAGS: ASEC PINS PINR ML SUBJECT: TUAREG LEADERS TRY TO SECURE PRISONER RELEASE BEFORE AUG. 15 DEADLINE REF: A. BAMAKO 00712 ¶B. BAMAKO 00684 ¶C. BAMAKO 00482 Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson, Embassy Bamako, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(C) Summary: On August 10 Ahmada ag Bibi, National Assembly Deputy and spokesman for the Tuareg rebel Alliance for Democracy and Change (ADC),left Bamako for Kidal in an apparent last ditch effort to convince fellow rebels to release approximately 89 Malian soldiers in advance of an informal August 15 deadline. Ag Bibi traveled to Kidal with Presidential advisor and close Embassy contact Acherif ag Mohamed. Upon arrival in Kidal, they intend to meet up with the National Assembly Deputy from Kidal, Alghabass ag Intallah, before trying to convince Ibrahim Bahanga and the ADC's military leaders to liberate the Malian soldiers still in captivity. Alghabass ag Intallah is the middle son of Intallah ag Attaher who has been the Amenokal, or traditional leader of Kidal Tuaregs, since 1963. Although probably only in his early to mid-thirties, many regard Alghabass as the most likely successor to the aged ag Attaher and northern Mali's most promising rising star. His addition to the team of ag Bibi and ag Mohamed, however, may not be enough to convince Bahanga and others to give up 89 valuable bargaining chips. End Summary. -------------- Kidal or Bust -------------- 2.(C) ADC spokesman Ag Bibi and presidential advisor ag Mohamed traveled to Kidal from Bamako on August 10 in a last-ditch attempt to secure the release of at least some of the 89 Malian soldiers held by Tuareg rebels before the expiration of an August 15 deadline. The deadline was set during last month's meeting between the Malian Government and representatives of various Tuareg rebel factions in Algiers (Ref. A). On August 8 the vice-president of the National Assembly, Assarid ag Imbarcaouane, provided the Embassy with a copy of the verbal agreement which the Malian and Tuareg sides left unsigned in Algiers. Ag Imbarcaouane cautioned that the document was confidential and not widely circulated even within the Malian government. 3.(C) The agreement stipulates the installation, "by August 15 at the latest," of one 200-person mixed military unit in Kidal. This unit would be charged with facilitating the liberation of "detainees" and the return of displaced �A;populations, de-mining, military patrols, and other unspecified missions. The document also calls for the liberation of all detainees by August 15. The document provided to the Embassy by ag Imbarcaouane carries a handwritten note indicating that the two sides also agreed to constitute a commission of inquiry into the deaths of Commandant Barka ag Cheikh, Mohamed ag Moussa and Captain Oumar N'Datou (see Ref. B) by August 10. The Malian and Tuareg sides agreed to reconvene in Algiers, sometime between August 20 and September 10, to evaluate progress toward meeting these benchmarks. 4.(C) The Malian and Tuareg sides seem no closer to achieving these steps than they were in late July in Algiers. The evident lack of progress, and rapidly approaching deadline, likely explains ag Bibi's hastily arranged return to Kidal. Prior to leaving Bamako ag Bibi and ag Mohamed called the Embassy to ask whether the U.S. could help cover some of the fuel costs incurred while traveling all the way to Kidal and beyond. Ag Bibi said that President Toure supported the trip to Kidal, but declined to invest ag Bibi with official orders for travel, thereby leaving ag Bibi and ag Mohamed on their own in terms of funding. The Embassy told ag Bibi that the U.S. was unable to provide support and that the Malians or Algerians were likely better placed in this regard. Ag Bibi and ag Mohamed subsequently departed Bamako without additional financing. -------------- A Man to Watch: Alghabass ag Intallah -------------- 5.(C) Ag Bibi hopes to convince both his own ADC and Ibrahim Bahanga to release the estimated 89 Malians solders they are currently holding by August 15. Ag Bibi clearly lacks the authority to compel the ADC's military leaders, including BAMAKO 00000721 002 OF 002 Moussa Bah, Harouna Said and Ibrahim Bana, to release of Malian military hostages. His position is even weaker vis-a-vis Ibrahim Bahanga. Upon their arrival in Kidal, ag Bibi and ag Mohamed plan to meet up with the National Assembly Deputy from Kidal, Alghabass ag Intallah, in hopes that ag Intallah's presence would add further weight to their demarche. 6.(C) Alghabass is the middle son of Kidal's current, and aged, Amenokal, Intallah ag Attaher. Although Alghabass is only in his early to mid-thirties, he is the most likely successor to ag Attaher. On August 5 the representative of Mali's High Islamic Council in Kidal - Mohamed Lamine Fall, who is an Ifoghas Tuareg despite his noticeably non-Tuareg name - told the Embassy that Alghabass was the only realistic candidate to replace ag Attaher and that a change could happen within one to two years depending on ag Attaher's failing health. 7.(C) As a member of the ruling Ifoghas Kel Afella tribe and son of the current Amenokal, Alghabass meets the lineage requirements of Tuareg leadership. Alghabass' elder brother, the Assembly Deputy from Tin-Essako Mohamed ag Intallah, is frequently described by fellow Tuaregs as lacking the intelligence needed to replace his father. Alghabass, on the other hand, seems to posses the intelligence and charisma of a leader. These two qualities were strikingly evident during a May 29 meeting with the Embassy during which ag Bibi did most of the talking but deferred, nearly instantaneously, to the younger Alghabass each time Alghabass quietly offered his opinion (Ref. C). -------------- Comment: A Tough Sell -------------- 8.(C) Ag Bibi and ag Mohamed alone likely have little chance of convincing Bahanga and the ADC's military leadership to release the 89 Malian hostages. If ag Bibi is unable to convince his own ADC to respect the informal, unsigned August 15 deadline, his chances with Bahanga are even slimmer. As an official adviser to President Toure and Mali's former consul in Tamanrasset, ag Mohamed is a well-known and well-respected Kidal Tuareg. He is not, however, on good terms with Bahanga. While the addition of Alghabass changes the equation somewhat, it may still not be enough to overcome these weaknesses. Failure to release at least some of the prisoners by August 15, may put in doubt the follow up meeting between Mali and the Tuareg rebels planned for late August or early September in Algiers. LEONARD