BANDITS ATTACK GENDARMARIE IN ANSONGO WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000435 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018 TAGS: ASEC PINS PINR ML SUBJECT: BANDITS ATTACK GENDARMARIE IN ANSONGO WHILE TUAREGS SEEK SIGN FROM ALGIERS REF: A. BAMAKO 00419 ¶B. BAMAKO 00415 Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson, Embassy Bamako, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(C) Summary: Tuareg bandits attacked the gendarmarie in Ansongo, south-east of Gao, during the early morning hours of May 12. No causalities were reported but the bandits made off with several vehicles and an unknown quantity of arms and ammunition. The attackers likely belong to a new group of bandits associated with the Imghad fraction of Malian Tuaregs. Following the attack the Embassy met with former Minister Mohamed ag Erlaf, who led a recent commission of Tuareg leaders to Kidal to meet with Ibrahim Bahanga and representatives of the Tuareg rebel Alliance for Democracy and Change (ADC). Ag Erlaf said Algeria needed to resume its role as principal mediator within a week to ten days to prevent increased acts of spontaneous banditry and keep northern Mali from slipping into "complete chaos." End Summary. -------------- New Group of Bandits Attack Ansongo -------------- 2.(C) A group of bandits believed to be led by Ahmoudou Badi attacked the gendarmarie in the town of Ansongo early on May ¶12. The attackers made off with several local vehicles as well as the gendarmarie's cache of arms and ammunition. No casualties were reported. Badi is a well known Tuareg bandit from the Gao/Menaka region who belongs to the Imghad fraction. Following the attack, ag Erlaf and other Tuaregs in Bamako received word that fellow Imghad, Col. Elhadj Gamou, had unsuccessfully attempted to dissuade Badi from attacking Ansongo. Badi's motivations, beyond simply taking advantage of the deteriorating security situation in northern Mali, remain unclear. It is possible that Badi's group is seeking to keep up with what appears to be a generalized arms race amongst Tuareg movements in the north (Ref A). -------------- Malians Arrest Bandits Near Tessalit -------------- 3.(U) On May 8, four days before the Ansongo attack, a Malian military patrol arrested approximately a dozen armed bandits between Aguelhok and Tessalit. It is not known if those arrested belong to the group led by Merzouk ag Acherif or were involved in the March 26 attack on Aguelhok or the May 3 attack of a Malian military convoy near Tessalit. The arrested individuals have reportedly been transferred to Bamako for questioning. -------------- Too Many Groups, Too Little Time -------------- 4.(C) Ag Erlaf and a group of Tuareg leaders traveled to Kidal in late April to meet with local Tuareg leaders, Ibrahim Bahanga and members of the ADC (Ref. B). Although ag Erlaf's commission received the blessings of President Amadou Toumani Toure prior to its departure for Kidal, it was not invested with the ability to speak on behalf of the Malian government. In spite of this handicap, the commission linked up with a thirteen member committee of local leaders in Kidal led by Isawden ag Saghid to discuss possibilities for peace with Bahanga and the ADC. According to ag Erlaf, Bahanga agreed to respect a month long truce, from April 25 to May 25, "to allow for the restart of negotiations." The May 3 attack by bandits led by Merzouk ag Acherif near Tessalit and the May 6 attack by the ADC in Diabali however, weakened this agreement. Ag Erlaf nevertheless maintained that Bahanga would respect the cease-fire until May 25 when it comes up for renewal. 5.(C) Like other Tuareg leaders, ag Erlaf wondered who, if anyone, was managing Mali's response to the growing crisis in the north. He noted, however, that the Tuareg side was also lacking a central point of contact. According to ag Erlaf, both the Malian and Tuareg sides are on auto-pilot. "I don't think that the crisis," he said, "is being managed at any level." 6.(C) ADC president Iyad ag Ghali has been northern Mali's BAMAKO 00000435 002 OF 002 main power-broker. Ag Ghali, however, recently reported to his new post as an advisor without portfolio at the Malian consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. A potential successor to Iyad within the ADC has yet to appear. Ag Erlaf said elements within the ADC attacked Diabali on May 6 to rearm themselves in hopes of securing some autonomy from Bahanga. Meanwhile, new groups of unaffiliated bandits or disaffected rebels are sprouting up almost weekly. Each of these groups, said ag Erlaf, has its own rebellion and its own idea of peace. The multiplicity of actors now on the northern Malian stage, he continued, was rapidly making it impossible for anyone to forge a consensus or draft an agreement acceptable to all. "If there is no general authority able to manage this," said ag Erlaf, "we will have complete chaos. I think we are moving closer and closer to a general knock-out for the north." -------------- All Eyes on Algiers -------------- 7.(C) If there is one thing that seemingly unites the Malian government and Tuareg leaders, it is the demand for Algeria to resume its mediation efforts. Malian officials had hoped to send Foreign Minister Moctar Ouane and President of the High Council of Collectivities Oumarou ag Haidara to Algiers weeks ago to restart the mediation process. Ouane and ag Haidara, however, have yet to leave Bamako, presumably because they have been unable to secure audiences in Algeria. 8.(C) Speculation over why Algeria withdrew its mediation services is rampant among Malian officials and Tuaregs alike. The three most common theories are: (1) Algeria was offended by Malian newspaper articles accusing Algeria of fomenting Tuareg unrest in northern Mali; (2) Algeria interpreted President Toure's decision to implicate Libya in hostage negotiations with Bahanga as a vote of no confidence and a concerted decision to change mediators; (3) Algeria is punishing Mali for statements National Assembly President Diouncounda Traore made in Rabat in April regarding his support for Morocco's position vis-a-vis the Polisario and Western Sahara. 9.(C) Some of this speculation seems to be fueled by the Algerian Ambassador to Mali, who speaks frequently with Tuareg leaders. Asked if there was anything the U.S. could do to help reduce tensions in northern Mali, ag Erlaf said simply: "Increase diplomatic pressure on Algeria to return." -------------- Comment: The Empty Negotiating Table -------------- 10.(C) Mali's preferred mediator, Algeria, is not the only party to have gone AWOL. As ag Erlaf noted, the Malians have yet to identify an official responsible for negotiation with the Tuaregs. The most likely candidate for this post would be Minister of Territorial Administration, General Kafougouna Kone. President Toure, however, continues to try to manage the northern crisis on his own. The departure of ADC president Iyad ag Ghali, on the other hand, leaves an equally large sized vacuum on the Tuareg side, where Bahanga, members of the ADC and disparate groups of rebels-in-waiting are all jostling for position. Given these dynamics, it is difficult to know exactly who Algeria would mediate between were it to agree to return to the mediation table. MCCULLEY