AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#3 21:00

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000986

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#3 21:00
BAKU

REF: A. BAKU 981

B. BAKU 985


1. (SBU) After a largely uneventful day of voting across
Azerbaijan, polls closed at 19:00 local time. Vote counting
was initiated immediately thereafter. Early indications are
that the tabulation process is being rushed, perhaps as a
result of pressure from the Central Election Commission or
other entities in Baku that have pressed for quick reporting
to district commissions. The count is currently taking place
at 5,000 polling stations across the country, with about
1,000 - 1,400 registered voters per precinct. Polling
stations, upon finishing the vote count and completing the
voting protocol, must report results to district election
commissions, which number 125 across the nation. District
election commissions, in turn, will report results to the
Central Election Commission in Baku.


2. (SBU) Preliminary information from the Central Election
Commission, as well as input from the Embassy's monitoring
teams in the field, shows that voter turnout is averaging
about 65-75%, or much higher than many pre-election observers
predicted. President Ilham Aliyev appears to be receiving a
large majority of votes, perhaps within the 80-90% range.
Pro-GOAJ media are reporting a heavy turnout, based on input
given to the Central Election Commission, and noting that
exit polls, conducted by government-friendly NGOs,
corresponded with their findings. Moscow's ITAR-TASS
reported at 15:24 GMT, or 19:24 Baku time, that exit polls
show that Ilham Aliyev is winning the vote with 82.6%.


3. (SBU) Of 19 Embassy monitoring teams, two have reported
substantial violations or irregularities. In Sumgayit,
Embassy observers at two polling stations witnessed precinct
workers removing ballot boxes and voting lists from the
premises, and exiting through a back door. International and
domestic observers were not allowed to follow. Domestic
observers at these sites complained of repeated ballot
stuffing all day. Embassy observers witnessed similar antics
in Lankaran. At that polling station, precinct workers
claimed to have counted the ballots in public within six
minutes, then retreated behind a closed door, accompanied by
a ruling party official and a number of unknown persons.
Upon emerging, they suggested that the vast majority of votes
were cast for President Aliyev.


4. (SBU) In Baku, Embassy officers contacted the Central
Election Commission and Presidential Apparat to voice concern
over these actions. Embassy observers in Sumgayit called the
Embassy shortly thereafter to note that precinct officials
there had received a highly critical telephone call from
Baku, and were then verbally harassed by precinct election
officials. Presidential Apparat Legal Advisor Shahin Aliyev
then called Embassy officials in Baku to state that the vote
at the two precincts in Sumgayit had been annulled. GOAJ
officials continue to investigate problems in Lankaran.
Meanwhile, U.K. Embassy observers reported irregularities in
vote tabulations at polling stations in Ganja and Sheki, but
later said that the infractions were not major. U.S. Embassy
monitors in these cities -- observing at different polling
stations -- have not reported significant problems.


5. (SBU) In three other polling stations, Embassy officials
reported signs of ballot stuffing, including stacks of
ballots stuck together inside the ballot box and suspicious
signatures on voter lists, but did not see actually any extra
ballots being put into boxes. In Tovuz, in Northwestern
Azerbaijan, Embassy observers witnessed repeat voters.
Before the count, a precinct captain fielded a call that
appeared to criticize him for a low election day turnout.
During the count, 20% of ballots, some of which were blank,
were deemed invalid, without group consensus. At the same
time, other embassy teams reported orderly vote counts,
without incident. Precinct captains offered observers copies
of protocols, which were accepted and brought to the Embassy.
One U.K. Embassy observer offered significant praise for the
conduct of the election in Baku.


6. (SBU) NDI representatives told Embassy officials that they
had had a cordial meeting with officials of the Presidential
Apparat this evening. Government officials wanted to hear
their concerns or criticisms of the elections firsthand, and
gather their general impression of the day's events. Apparat
advisors then repeated their concerns about the Election

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Monitoring Center (EMC),which is conducting a nationwide
parallel vote tabulation. EMC is not registered as a legal
entity in Azerbaijan. Government officials continued to
suggest that EMC cannot operate or conduct business as an
organization. Rather, its members, as citizens of
Azerbaijan, could conduct the PVT and report on results.


7. (SBU) Opposition parties in Azerbaijan have been rather
quiet, thus far not issuing any major election day
announcements. Earlier this week, the Musavat Party and
other groups that did not participate in the election called
for a public demonstration on Saturday, October 18. A venue
has not been announced, though organizers suggested that the
rally would take place in central Baku. It is unclear
whether these groups would be able to attract a sizeable
crowd to the streets.


7. (SBU) Two American citizens appeared on Azerbaijan's Lider
TV this evening, announcing that they had observed voting
over the course of the day and had found no significant
shortcomings in the conduct of the election. The man and
woman were identified as employees of USAID. Embassy notes,
however, that the two are not affiliated with the Embassy or
USAID in Azerbaijan. The problem may have been related to
interpretation. Thirty American citizens, calling themselves
the "American Observation Group, have come to Azerbaijan to
monitor the elections. This group is not affiliated with the
U.S. Government.
DERSE