AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000979 SIPDIS EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN NORTH AND SOUTH Classified By: Political and Economic Counselor Robert Garverick, for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During late September, Embassy officials visited both Azerbaijan's second largest city, Ganja, which is located in the north, and several small villages in the Lankaran region in the south to assess the pre-election political environment. Local officials in both regions seemed aware of changes to the election code, and were anxious to show Embassy officials that they were in compliance. Preparations for conducting the election appeared to be on track. In both places, citizen interest in the election was low, however, and therefore turnout on Election Day may also be low. Election observers note that this may be an area where GOAJ officials turn to fraud in order to improve the appearance of President Aliyev's popularity. END SUMMARY FROM THE NORTH: LITTLE POLITICAL DISCOURSE IN GANJA -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) On September 23-24 Embassy officials traveled to Ganja, Azerbaijan's second largest city, to assess the political environment ahead of the October 15 presidential election. In a meeting with Embassy officials, the head of Ganja's Executive Committee, Eldar Azizov, praised the city's effort to take down all posters of President Ilham Aliyev, in accordance with the President's pre-election decree. Azizov also noted that democratic and economic reforms in Ganja were succeeding as a result of Aliyev's leadership and the dedication of local authorities. Embassy officials confirm that all non-election related posters have been removed, but Aliyev's campaign posters have sprouted up in shop windows around the city, with the net effect still being that the President's image is omnipresent in Ganja. The other candidates' posters are relegated to the official poster boards outside of polling stations. ¶3. (C) In a separate meeting, Akifa Aliyeva, coordinator of the Helsinki Citizens Assembly in Ganja, offered a much different picture of the political environment in Ganja. She noted that there were no officially sanctioned sites for opposition parties to host political meetings in Ganja. She also reported that activities by the opposition are heavily restricted, as business owners are under pressure from the authorities to avoid renting their venues for political events. Recently, opposition parties have resorted to gathering at teahouses, but these too are coming under pressure to refuse service. Many citizens are thus unfamiliar with the candidates or do not see them as an alternative to the current administration. While she described the election environment as "calm" relative to previous elections, Aliyeva said that the majority of Ganja residents plan to abstaiQrom voting as a protest against the unfair conditions that have been created by the authorities. She expected that the Election Commission will inflate voter turnout data to mask this situation. FROM THE SOUTH: LANKARAN REGION TRIES TO FOLLOW NEW LAW -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Embassy officials also traveled through the southern region of Lankaran September 28-30 to assess the pre-election environment. In the small mountain villages between Masally and Larik, the approaching election was more evident than in most parts of Baku. Large red banners across the main mountain road in each town announced the October 15 election, and polling places were clearly marked. Bus stations along the road also prominently featured voter education advertisements. ¶5. (C) In Guneshli, a small village in the mountains northwest of Lankaran, Embassy officials visited the village's polling station with the two members of the Precinct Election Commission (PEC). The polling station was located on the second floor of the village elementary school, recently built by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation. The voter list was prominently posted outside the polling room, with 419 voters listed. The polling station itself was already prepared for election day, and patrolled on the outside by at least one member of the PEC at all times. The PEC members were anxious to know from Embassy officials whether their preparations were in accordance with the law, and seemed very proud of their work. According to the Deputy Chairman of the PEC, everyone is free to vote for whomever they choose, but there is little discussion in the village about the election. He reported that town residents were more worried about the serious lack of economic opportunities in the region, than about politics. ¶6. (C) In a separate discussion, local agricultural development expert Shahin Abbasov also told Embassy officials that there is little interest in the election within the community. Most citizens know that President Aliyev will win re-election, and therefore they see no reason to vote. In addition, Abbasov felt that the level of corruption in Azerbaijan was so high, that if any new person came into power, that person and their inner circle would steal more from the country, and therefore there was no reason to vote to bring someone new into power. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) In both the northern city of Ganja, and the rural villages of the south, citizen interest in the election is low. President Aliyev's re-election is seen as inevitable, and the other candidates are not judged to be a better alternative for the country. Despite local officials' attempts to inform voters and attract them to polling stations, it is probable that actual turnout on election day will be low. If the official get-out-the-vote strategies do not work, GOAJ officials may turn to fraud to increase the turnout figure, according to election observers. DERSE