PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CALLS FOR U.S. TO FILL VOID

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000891

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV AJ IR TU RS
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CALLS FOR U.S. TO FILL VOID
IN CAUCASUS

REF: STATE 96122

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a September 15 meeting with the
Ambassador, International Relations Advisor to President
Aliyev Novruz Mammadov said he did not think that withdrawal
of Azerbaijani forces from Iraq by the end of 2008 "would be
a problem." (reftel) Mammadov also shared his views on a
number of topics: he believes that Turkey's recently proposed
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform is vague, but in
the absence of other proposals, "attracts attention." He
said the recent visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister was
just after he visited Moscow, and signaled Iran's interest in
participating in whatever new stability and security
structures are established in the region. He suspects
behind-the-scenes Russian involvement in the effort that the
Turks say they are leading. He said that Armenia is becoming
less isolated and more confident in the wake of the Turkish
President's visit, he worries about regional security
(particularly the security of Georgia and Ukraine),and he
called for the United States to seize the opportunity before
the political void created in the wake of the conflict in
Georgia becomes completely filled by Russia. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The Ambassador delivered reftel demarche informing
the GOAJ their troops would not be needed into 2009 and that
the USG was ready to offer assistance (if needed) to redeploy
those troops. Mammadov responded that he "did not think this
would be a problem," but he did not immediately respond to
the Ambassador's invitation to strengthen Azerbaijan's troop
presence in Afghanistan.


3. (C) Mammadov also wanted to discuss Turkey's recently
proposed "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" with
the Ambassador. Mammadov said he suspected that Russia had
played a role in the crafting of this "platform," although he
was unclear as to the extent of that role. Mammadov noted
that when Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan first proposed the
concept, he dubbed it a "Caucasus Union," but that following
a visit to Moscow Erdogan changed the name to the "Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform." Mammadov said this was
Russia's way of saying the West has not "totally succeeded,"
and that "Western ideas have not infected the region."


4. (C) Mammadov noted with dismay that in the wake of recent
hostilities the political space is being filled by Russia.
He said that although Armenia has found itself in a difficult
position, it may be trying to maneuver itself to a stronger
position. He saw no chance that Armenia would change its
position and cede Nagorno-Karabakh, because Armenia now is
calm, and following the Turkish President's visit to Yerevan,
is feeling upbeat about its prospects. Mammadov noted that
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had already been invited on
a reciprocal visit to Turkey. Mammadov expected President
Aliyev would discuss these regional developments when he
visits Moscow this week. He said he was "not sure" if Russia
would not forward a new proposal on Nagorno-Karabakh during
the meeting.


5. (C) "You are either with us or against us," Mammadov
quoted Medvedev as saying, and he noted that for the time
being, most of Central Asia appeared to be very much with
Russia. Mammadov said that Russia's primary goal was to cut
off the route from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe,
but he added "this train has left the station; (Former
President) Heydar Aliyev already linked us to the West."
Russia is now throwing up obstacles, he said, by making a
separate agreement with each country, and he said Georgia was
the "weak link" in this energy chain.


6. (C) Mammadov also noted with dismay that the outcome of
French President Sarkozy's work seems to have been the
legalization of the annexation of Abkhazia and Ossetia.
"Everyone is saying the legalization, independence, whatever
you call it, is a done deal."


7. (C) Mammadov said he was unsure of Turkey's goals in this
platform. He said it was possible that after being scorned
by Europe for so many years Turkey wanted to re-examine the
possibility of forming some sort of union of its own to the
East, but hinted that it was more likely Russia had "proposed
something" to Turkey. "What's going on with the Kurds?" he
asked. "What's going on with that BTC explosion?"


8. (C) Mammadov expressed frustration with a recent
interview of EUR DAS Matthew Bryza that has appeared
throughout Azerbaijani media. While acknowledging that the
bulk of Bryza's comments were well portrayed, he said that
"the man in the cafe" is only going to hear a one-sentence

soundbite, and the soundbite being played is Bryza saying "we
cannot exert any pressure on any party in the negotiation."
"How can he say that after the statements the Vice President
made?" Mammadov asked. "It would have been better if he said
nothing at all, because this is what the journalists seized,
this is the line they kept repeating." At the same time,
Mammadov also expressed his frustration with press coverage
of Vice President Cheney's visit, in particular reports that
it had been a failure. He said the Russians "want to distort
things in the press, so they do," and he emphasized that
President Aliyev was "very happy" with the visit.


9. (C) Mammadov hinted at further summits for President
Aliyev beyond this week's trip to Moscow. He showed the
Ambassador an invitation from 10 Downing Street to attend a
"London Energy Meeting" on December 18 and 19, and he also
indicated President Aliyev wanted to host a summit of
Turkic-language speaking nations in Baku. Mammadov said such
summits had been held on a biannual basis under President
Heydar Aliyev's administration, and President Ilham Aliyev
has proposed to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to restart
such a program. Mammadov said three Presidents had already
accepted, those of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan, but
that President Karimov of Uzbekistan said he would not attend
"because of Turkey." Mammadov did not elaborate on this but
rather hinted this was a long-standing personality issue. He
said that Karimov told President Aliyev (without being
invited) that he would instead come to Baku for a one-on-one
meeting which took place this week.


10. (C) Mammadov was very worried by the prospects for
regional peace and in particular, the security of Georgia and
Ukraine. He asked the Ambassador what would happen if these
countries collapsed, and raised his hands in defeat as he
spoke of President Yushchenko and "this path that he has
chosen," despite the fact that Azerbaijan cautioned
Yushchenko against it. With regard to Turkey's Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform, he said "there is all
this noise about structures, but where will it lead?"
Mammadov said the GOAJ had become disillusioned with the
Minsk Group because of its lack of results and was open to
exploring this new Turkish-proposed platform. The concept is
vague, but in the absence of other proposals when the
countries in the region feel a new sense of insecurity and
threat, it "attracts attention." Mammadov said that the
Iranian Foreign Minister who had just visited Baku had only
one message: Iran also wants to be included in whatever new
security and stability structures are developed in the
region. His Baku stop, like Erdogan's, was on the heels of a
visit to Moscow, Mammadov noted.


11. (C) COMMENT: Russia's position throughout the conflict
with Georgia has been heard loud and clear in Azerbaijan:
"The South Caucasus belongs to us." Vice President Cheney's
message to the Azerbaijani people was also clear: "The United
States has deep and abiding interests in your well being and
security." Mammadov suggested that a vacuum left in the
regional political structure in the wake of the Georgian
conflict is quickly being filled by Russia and the USG now
needs to respond with a significant political and security
presence.
DERSE