PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CALLS FOR U.S. TO FILL VOID

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000891 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV AJ IR TU RS SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CALLS FOR U.S. TO FILL VOID IN CAUCASUS REF: STATE 96122 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador, International Relations Advisor to President Aliyev Novruz Mammadov said he did not think that withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from Iraq by the end of 2008 "would be a problem." (reftel) Mammadov also shared his views on a number of topics: he believes that Turkey's recently proposed Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform is vague, but in the absence of other proposals, "attracts attention." He said the recent visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister was just after he visited Moscow, and signaled Iran's interest in participating in whatever new stability and security structures are established in the region. He suspects behind-the-scenes Russian involvement in the effort that the Turks say they are leading. He said that Armenia is becoming less isolated and more confident in the wake of the Turkish President's visit, he worries about regional security (particularly the security of Georgia and Ukraine),and he called for the United States to seize the opportunity before the political void created in the wake of the conflict in Georgia becomes completely filled by Russia. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador delivered reftel demarche informing the GOAJ their troops would not be needed into 2009 and that the USG was ready to offer assistance (if needed) to redeploy those troops. Mammadov responded that he "did not think this would be a problem," but he did not immediately respond to the Ambassador's invitation to strengthen Azerbaijan's troop presence in Afghanistan. ¶3. (C) Mammadov also wanted to discuss Turkey's recently proposed "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" with the Ambassador. Mammadov said he suspected that Russia had played a role in the crafting of this "platform," although he was unclear as to the extent of that role. Mammadov noted that when Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan first proposed the concept, he dubbed it a "Caucasus Union," but that following a visit to Moscow Erdogan changed the name to the "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." Mammadov said this was Russia's way of saying the West has not "totally succeeded," and that "Western ideas have not infected the region." ¶4. (C) Mammadov noted with dismay that in the wake of recent hostilities the political space is being filled by Russia. He said that although Armenia has found itself in a difficult position, it may be trying to maneuver itself to a stronger position. He saw no chance that Armenia would change its position and cede Nagorno-Karabakh, because Armenia now is calm, and following the Turkish President's visit to Yerevan, is feeling upbeat about its prospects. Mammadov noted that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan had already been invited on a reciprocal visit to Turkey. Mammadov expected President Aliyev would discuss these regional developments when he visits Moscow this week. He said he was "not sure" if Russia would not forward a new proposal on Nagorno-Karabakh during the meeting. ¶5. (C) "You are either with us or against us," Mammadov quoted Medvedev as saying, and he noted that for the time being, most of Central Asia appeared to be very much with Russia. Mammadov said that Russia's primary goal was to cut off the route from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe, but he added "this train has left the station; (Former President) Heydar Aliyev already linked us to the West." Russia is now throwing up obstacles, he said, by making a separate agreement with each country, and he said Georgia was the "weak link" in this energy chain. ¶6. (C) Mammadov also noted with dismay that the outcome of French President Sarkozy's work seems to have been the legalization of the annexation of Abkhazia and Ossetia. "Everyone is saying the legalization, independence, whatever you call it, is a done deal." ¶7. (C) Mammadov said he was unsure of Turkey's goals in this platform. He said it was possible that after being scorned by Europe for so many years Turkey wanted to re-examine the possibility of forming some sort of union of its own to the East, but hinted that it was more likely Russia had "proposed something" to Turkey. "What's going on with the Kurds?" he asked. "What's going on with that BTC explosion?" ¶8. (C) Mammadov expressed frustration with a recent interview of EUR DAS Matthew Bryza that has appeared throughout Azerbaijani media. While acknowledging that the bulk of Bryza's comments were well portrayed, he said that "the man in the cafe" is only going to hear a one-sentence soundbite, and the soundbite being played is Bryza saying "we cannot exert any pressure on any party in the negotiation." "How can he say that after the statements the Vice President made?" Mammadov asked. "It would have been better if he said nothing at all, because this is what the journalists seized, this is the line they kept repeating." At the same time, Mammadov also expressed his frustration with press coverage of Vice President Cheney's visit, in particular reports that it had been a failure. He said the Russians "want to distort things in the press, so they do," and he emphasized that President Aliyev was "very happy" with the visit. ¶9. (C) Mammadov hinted at further summits for President Aliyev beyond this week's trip to Moscow. He showed the Ambassador an invitation from 10 Downing Street to attend a "London Energy Meeting" on December 18 and 19, and he also indicated President Aliyev wanted to host a summit of Turkic-language speaking nations in Baku. Mammadov said such summits had been held on a biannual basis under President Heydar Aliyev's administration, and President Ilham Aliyev has proposed to Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to restart such a program. Mammadov said three Presidents had already accepted, those of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan, but that President Karimov of Uzbekistan said he would not attend "because of Turkey." Mammadov did not elaborate on this but rather hinted this was a long-standing personality issue. He said that Karimov told President Aliyev (without being invited) that he would instead come to Baku for a one-on-one meeting which took place this week. ¶10. (C) Mammadov was very worried by the prospects for regional peace and in particular, the security of Georgia and Ukraine. He asked the Ambassador what would happen if these countries collapsed, and raised his hands in defeat as he spoke of President Yushchenko and "this path that he has chosen," despite the fact that Azerbaijan cautioned Yushchenko against it. With regard to Turkey's Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, he said "there is all this noise about structures, but where will it lead?" Mammadov said the GOAJ had become disillusioned with the Minsk Group because of its lack of results and was open to exploring this new Turkish-proposed platform. The concept is vague, but in the absence of other proposals when the countries in the region feel a new sense of insecurity and threat, it "attracts attention." Mammadov said that the Iranian Foreign Minister who had just visited Baku had only one message: Iran also wants to be included in whatever new security and stability structures are developed in the region. His Baku stop, like Erdogan's, was on the heels of a visit to Moscow, Mammadov noted. ¶11. (C) COMMENT: Russia's position throughout the conflict with Georgia has been heard loud and clear in Azerbaijan: "The South Caucasus belongs to us." Vice President Cheney's message to the Azerbaijani people was also clear: "The United States has deep and abiding interests in your well being and security." Mammadov suggested that a vacuum left in the regional political structure in the wake of the Georgian conflict is quickly being filled by Russia and the USG now needs to respond with a significant political and security presence. DERSE