TURKISH PRESIDENT GUL SEEKS TO REASSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000870

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM TU AM AJ
SUBJECT: TURKISH PRESIDENT GUL SEEKS TO REASSURE
AZERBAIAJAN AFTER YEREVAN TRIP

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Turkish President Gul's September 10 visit
to Baku probably focused on reassuring the GOAJ and the
general public that Gul's attendance at a soccer match in
Yerevan would not degrade Turkey's "special relationship"
with Azerbaijan. The GOAJ almost certainly is nervous about
a thawing trend in Turkish-Armenian relations because this
diminishes Baku's leverage with Yerevan by being able to
highlight Armenia's geopolitical isolation, but GOAJ
officials are not sharing their jitters with us. The general
Azerbaijani public has not hid its discomfort with Gul's trip
to Yerevan, however. GOAJ officials and the general public
remain critical of Ankara's Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Program, arguing that it is vague and divorced
from the current political realities on the ground. End
Summary.

Baku,s Jitters about Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement
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2. (C) The immediate political context of Gul's September 10
visit to Baku is the Azerbaijani public,s questioning of
Gul's willingness to attend the September 6 soccer match in
Yerevan. Azerbaijanis are quick to emphasize the "special
relationship" between Azerbaijanis and Turks, and they
reflexively look to Ankara as a key regional partner--in
terms of energy and infrastructure projects and a loyal
backer of Azerbaijan,s position on Nagorno-Karabakh (NK).
Our contacts have told us a wave of nervousness and fear
rippled through the general public when Gul announced his
decision to travel to Yerevan. The underlying issue for
Azerbaijanis was a sense that Turkey might abandon or betray
Azerbaijan, especially on the central issue of NK.


3. (C) Political commentator Hikmet Hadjizade said the GOAJ
probably was keen to have Gul visit Baku to calm public
jitters--alongside some level of private nervousness as
well--that Ankara was contemplating "selling out" Baku for
warmer relations with Armenia. Hadjizade emphasized that
while Presidents Aliyev and Gul probably also discussed
energy and the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Program,
the main aim of the trip was to assure the GOAJ and the
general public that Turkey's pursuit of more normalized
relations with Armenia would not necessitate a change in
Turkey,s "special" relationship with Azerbaijan.


4. (C) GOAJ officials share the general public's jitters;
some, however, have been reluctant to show us this face.
When asked about the significance of Gul's trip to Yerevan,
MFA Security Affairs Department Chief Galib Israfilov calmly
told Embassy officers the event was part of a much broader,
ongoing attempt by both states to normalize ties. (NOTE:
Israfilov reports directly to Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov,
who handles the MFA's NK negotiations.) Israfilov noted
other attempts by Turkey and Armenia to repair ties,
including cultural cooperation in rebuilding Armenian
churches in eastern Turkey. Despite Israfilov's calm, other
senior GOAJ officials express additional concern about the
long-term impact of a potential Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement. Presidential Administration Political
Analysis Chief Elnur Aslanov, expressing doubts about the
effectiveness of President Gul's visit, told embassy officers
last week that Turkey and Armenia "could not reconcile
without settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." Even in the
short-term, any appearance of Ankara and Yerevan moving to
normalize their bilateral relationship undercuts a key point
of Azerbaijan's strategy toward NK: highlighting Armenia's
geopolitical isolation in the hopes of extracting concessions
from Yerevan.

Limited Interest in Turkey,s Caucasus Initiative
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5. (C) GOAJ officials consistently signal to the Embassy
that Azerbaijan considers Ankara's Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Program as poorly-defined and divorced from
regional political realities, namely Georgian-Russian and
Azerbaijani-Armenian tensions. In a meeting with Special
Envoy C. Boyden Gray, President Aliyev said the proposal is
"not serious or realistic." Aslanov described the proposal
as "foggy," noting that Baku and Yerevan are not ready to sit
down together with regional partners to discuss sensitive
issues. Presidential Administration Director Ali Hasanov

later told the Ambassador that Azerbaijan would not agree to
participate in the program as long as the United States is
excluded (septel). Israfilov also threw cold water on the
proposal, while noting the need for Azerbaijan to maintain a
publicly upbeat line.
DERSE