PRESIDENT ALIYEV DISCUSSES GEORGIA, ENERGY WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 000813 SIPDIS EUR FOR MATT BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM PHUM AJ SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV DISCUSSES GEORGIA, ENERGY WITH SENATOR LUGAR REF: A. BAKU 797 ¶B. BAKU 790 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: President Aliyev told Senator Lugar August 25 that his visit to Azerbaijan was very important and timely, coming on the heels of a stopover in Tbilisi. Azerbaijan, the President said, was first to send assistance to Georgia and will continue to do so, despite grave errors and "irresponsible steps" by Saakashvili that had put Azerbaijan's sovereignty and independence at risk and "damaged our common energy strategy." Saakashvili, according to Aliyev, took measures in South Ossetia "despite my warnings in Kars" and now Azerbaijan's oil and gas transport "is in the hands of the Russian army." This happened "despite all we have done for them," e.g. natural gas supply during winters. Azerbaijan wants a consistent, common USG statement on territorial integrity for Georgia and Azerbaijan, regarding South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. GOAJ's main task now is to secure and develop Azerbaijan, not protect or save Georgia. Oil and gas transit projects with Russia and/or Iran are now possible. In addition, President Aliyev is still sensitive to USG's no-vote on Azerbaijan's NK resolution at UNGA last spring and Secretary Rice's comments about Azerbaijan in Prague. Still, despite all of these difficulties, the United States and Azerbaijan should continue work on the Southern Corridor. "We should not give up." End Summary ¶2. (C) Senator Richard Lugar met August 25 with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku to discuss the ongoing Russia-Georgia conflict and implications for Azerbaijan. Of particular interest was regional stability and security cooperation, including the need to secure energy development and transport routes through the Caucasus. Ambassador Derse accompanied Senator Lugar; the Senator's staff members and Embassy Pol-Econ Chief (notetaker) also attended. Senator Lugar's Visit Timely -------------- ¶3. (C) President Aliyev welcomed Senator Lugar back to Baku, noting that much had changed in the region since the Senator's last visit in January. Referring to ongoing events in Georgia as unprecedented in Azerbaijan's history as an independent country, he highlighted the importance of the visit at this time. Azerbaijan's chief aim, he said, is "to 
continue our independent path," noting that the Russia-Georgia conflict had "made that more difficult." Azerbaijan now wants to play the role of stabilizer in the region, working to ensure that the conflict does not expand. ¶4. (C) Senator Lugar reported that he had just come from Tbilisi, where he had discussed military actions, regional security concerns and humanitarian assistance. Beyond the immediate security issues, he said, it appears that Georgia's economy will suffer greatly, with much infrastructure destroyed or damaged. "There is a great sense of anxiety there," the Senator said, adding that the U.S. Government has begun to deliver assistance. Russian actions in the Caucasus, he said, had renewed a great debate in the United States, ranging from security in the Caucasus to a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine to missile defense and Poland, with great implications for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan Will Assist Georgia -------------- ¶5. (C) President Aliyev said that Azerbaijan was the first country, following the crisis in South Ossetia, to offer assistance to Georgia. He also noted that Yerevan, meanwhile, had allowed Russian aircraft to strike southern Georgia from bases in Armenia. "You can tell a lot about a country by its actions during a time of crisis," the President said. He reported that Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Armenia were providing assistance to Ossetia, while Azerbaijan was giving aid to Tbilisi. Azerbaijan will continue to support Georgia: "whatever they need, we will do, we will try to do what we can to help them." President Aliyev acknowledged Georgia's impending economic problems, and said that the crisis next door would result in major economic and political costs for Azerbaijan, too. Besides mounting losses related to disrupted oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan will experience import and export delays and cancellations along east-west transport routes. Since Georgia is Azerbaijan's "natural route" to the West, when it is cut "Azerbaijan is squeezed by North and South." BAKU 00000813 002 OF 004 Armenia, meanwhile, will likely suffer from a fuel (gasoline/diesel) supply crisis. Saakaskhvili, Georgia Made a Great Mistake -------------- ¶6. (C) President Aliyev offered sharp words of criticism for Georgian President Saakashvili and Georgia's role in initiating or escalating the conflict with Russia. "Georgia's mis-actions" have undermined regional cooperation that has taken place for over a decade, the President said. Saakashvili, he said, had given Russia a pretext for striking against Georgia. Now these "irresponsible steps" had damaged the east-west corridor and "threatened the sovereignty and independence" of Azerbaijan. "I warned Saakashvili recently in Kars (Turkey) that now is not the time," President Aliyev said, but Georgia "moved ahead" regardless. This was done without consultations, Aliyev said, "despite all that we have done for them." (Note: Azerbaijan has guaranteed supply of natural gas to Georgia during recent winters.) As a result, Georgia finds itself with refugees, significant economic problems and a lack of confidence among international investors. Worst of all, South Ossetia and Abkhazia "are lost." ¶7. (C) Turning to ramifications for Azerbaijan, President Aliyev lamented that the "Georgian corridor" is under threat. The Russia-Georgia conflict "has done big damage to our common energy strategy. Azerbaijan's oil and gas transport options are now in the hands of the Russian army." This was Russia's aim, he suggested -- to control energy transport. Saakashvili gave Moscow the opportunity to do so by force. Previously, BTC and other routes to market had been secure. Now, it appears, "anything could happen" along those lines. "We cannot fight with the Russians," Aliyev said. The "wrong steps of the Georgians" have made things much more difficult. Given instability in the region, the President said with frustration, "I don't know how we can talk about new projects." However, he continued, Azerbaijan's strategic vision to export oil and gas to the West still stands, he said. "We cannot give up on efforts to realize what we planned, as I discussed with Basescu and Erdogan (who recently visited Baku)...the EU, Turkey, all who are involved should continue...we'll see a reaction in the eastern Caspian if not. We'll continue with them, too," he said. " Azerbaijan Wants Consistent USG Approach to Territorial Integrity -------------- -- ¶8. (C) President Aliyev maintained that the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia differ from Nagorno-Karabakh. Before the current crisis, the President explained, ethnic Georgians were living in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In NK, however, Armenians had long ago expelled Azerbaijanis. Moreover, he said, although four UN resolutions on Azerbaijan's territorial integrity had passed in New York, they have not been implemented. President Aliyev noted that the USG's language on territorial integrity differed quite sharply between the separate conflict zones. In Georgia, the USG is promoting "no compromise" on territorial integrity, while in NK the USG "is pushing Azerbaijan" to make concessions. Azerbaijan, therefore, wants the USG to promote a consistent policy on territorial integrity, i.e., the same approach and language on South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. "It is good to hear the strong statements on territorial integrity and the need to resolve the conflict on that basis" with respect to Georgia, he said. "We'd like to hear the same for us." Nobody Would Defend Azerbaijan -------------- ¶9. (C) "We must now think about our own security," the President told Senator Lugar. Azerbaijan, Aliyev said, "is not here to defend and protect Georgia. We must develop our own country." If Russia's actions go "unpunished," Moscow "will continue." There is a precedent in the Caucasus, set in the 1920s, when the Bolsheviks invaded after the collapse of the Russian Empire. Georgia, in recent years, has been "the closest U.S. ally" in the former Soviet Union. "If this is what happens to Georgia, then what would happen to us?" the President wondered. Azerbaijan, he said, could well be a future target for Moscow, as it is well known that the country has major reserves of oil and gas. Baku, he suggested, would not suppose that NATO or the West would come to its rescue if Russia or Iran attacked. "Who would defend Azerbaijan?" the President asked rhetorically. "Nobody!" BAKU 00000813 003 OF 004 For this reason, Azerbaijan must further develop its military and purchase more weapons. In previous years, Azerbaijan had turned to suppliers in the former Soviet Union -- Russia, Ukraine, Belarus -- for weapons procurement. These relationships could be expanded, the President suggested, but acknowledged that these scenarios "come with a price." ¶10. (C) Aliyev said he hoped Azerbaijan "would not be forgotten" in the steps the US and the West were planning to address the Georgian crisis. "We want to be more in the picture, enjoying the practical benefits, including security." Aliyev told Lugar that he has raised several times Azerbaijan's interest in purchasing arms from the United States. Azerbaijan's ability to build its defenses are limited because it has no access to US systems. "This should be reconsidered to allow us access to US products as a friend, as a stabilizing force, as a country that may be under threat." Azerbaijan needs "something we can use" to defend against attacks, given the recent evidence that disputes can be resolved by force in the region. The NK conflict is no reason not to sell, Aliyev argued. Saudi Arabia can purchase arms from the US, and Azerbaijan is "closer" to the US than Saudi Arabia. He asked that Lugar take this message to Washington. Russia, Iran Only Energy Transport Options -------------- ¶11. (C) Without Georgia, Azerbaijan has no choice but to look north and south for oil and gas export options. Russia, the President reported, has already made alternative oil transport proposals, offering incentives to induce Azerbaijan to continue to send oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. Initially, an additional 5 million tons (100,000 barrels per day) of Azerbaijan's oil could move to the Russian Black Sea coast. To sweeten the deal, the Russians were offering batching and storage options, which would allow Azerbaijan to avoid mixing its crude oil with lower quality Urals blend. Azerbaijan is also aware of GazProm's interest in purchasing Shah Deniz phase II natural gas. Otherwise, Azerbaijan is considering crude oil "swap" arrangements with Iran, which would effectively allow Baku to export its oil through the Persian Gulf. While not committing specifically to any of these options, the President noted that "we cannot live without exports." Turkmenistan Still Very Strange -------------- ¶12. (C) President Aliyev noted that he had suggested to Turkey's President and Prime Minister that Ankara should make good on a 1996 contract to purchase natural gas from Turkmenistan. He was hopeful that PM Erdogan would travel to Ashgabat to promote the deal. Azerbaijan's relations with Turkmenistan are developing, the President said, but difficult. Ashgabat continues to send diplomatic notes to Baku, demanding rights to the ACG oil fields and the disputed Kyapaz-Serdar field. The Turkmen, in fact, "are planning to sue us in the International Court of Justice." A recent incident involving the Azerbaijani Coast Guard and a Russian research vessel, under hire by a foreign firm doing business in Turkmenistan, caused minor problems in the relationship just about the time that President Berdymuhamedov visited Baku. "This is very strange behavior," President Aliyev said, especially when preparations for the joint Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan energy conference in early September were going well. He wondered aloud whether "someone had gotten to" the Turkmen President. U.S. Should Reconsider Relationship -------------- ¶13. (C) President Aliyev does not expect the Russia-Georgia conflict to be resolved quickly. The Russians will take the same approach there as they took in Nagorno-Karabakh, he said. That means multiple rounds of delays, based on visits, consultations, requests for documents, etc. In the meantime, it would be useful for the United States "to reconsider" its security relationship with Azerbaijan. "It is time now for more understanding of the important role of Azerbaijan" as a US partner and regional stabilizer "in normal times and times of crisis." ("We need to elaborate a mutually agreed and predictable format of relations," he added later.) Aliyev pressed for greater stability in the region, and a predictable environment for investors. Senator Lugar agreed, noting that we need a "broader circle of people in Washington, DC, who understand Azerbaijan and recognize the United States' national security concerns here." BAKU 00000813 004 OF 004 Harmful Rhetoric and Actions -------------- ¶14. (C) The President complained, though, of harmful rhetoric from Washington, unhelpful actions and a lack of balance in reports on countries of the region. The United States, he said, "should be more attentive to countries like ours." Senator Lugar said that he was aware of recent difficulties in the relationship, stemming in part from the Minsk Group Co-Chairs' decision to vote against Azerbaijan's UNGA resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev suggested that a better path would have been for the United States to abstain, rather than vote no. "This is a part of the history of our relationship," the President said, adding that "it will not go away." ¶15. (C) The President further complained that "minor events" in Azerbaijan regarding human rights and democracy development are escalated in Washington, without regional perspective. Similar events in other Caucasus countries draw little attention . In recent months, he said, rhetoric from high-ranking officials had become so heated that it suggested "a change in policy" vis-a-vis Azerbaijan. Further, in the run-up to Azerbaijan's October 15 presidential elections, comments from the United States have been harsh, suggesting that Azerbaijan's "level of democracy" is lower than that of its neighbors. Aliyev noted that in Yerevan in March the Armenia government sent in troops, "killed people," shutdown the media, arrested opposition leaders and implemented martial law. Similar events had taken place in Georgia. Still, "Azerbaijan always winds up on the bottom of the list" on democratic development. ¶16. (C) "These statements come from the Congress and the media, and that is understandable," Aliyev said, noting that the Armenian diaspora in the United States "spreads bad news" about Azerbaijan and damages the country's reputation. Such critical statements from the Administration, however, are not only hard to understand, the President said, they also provide an opportunity for "those who do not support our close relationship to advocate their position," he said. He urged that the USG not only "be more attentive to countries like ours," but also, treat the three South Caucasus countries similarly. "There are problems here, as elsewhere," he acknowledged. "But we are no worse than our neighbors...have a unified approach to us and others." ¶17. (C) Senator Lugar noted that, after his last visit, Azerbaijan had released several prominent journalists from prison. Observers in Washington had taken notice. Moreover, in Congress, the Senator and others were promoting educational exchange programs. President Aliyev said that he supported these efforts, and noted that Azerbaijan was funding its own program to send student overseas for education. President Aliyev, however, expressed concern that Secretary Rice in Prague had referred to Azerbaijan as an "18th century nation," and suggested that "the purpose of student exchange programs is regime change." These types of statements, Aliyev said, are not helpful. "We are cooperating on security and anti-terrorism and we are cooperating on energy," the President said. Despite the rhetoric from Washington, he said, the United States and Azerbaijan should look for ways to broaden the dialogue. Comment -------------- ¶18. (C) President Aliyev made clear that he considers events in Georgia to be very serious, with potentially major implications for Azerbaijan's independence and security, the NK conflict, and strategic energy projects. He also underscored Azerbaijan's intention to stick to its independent path and broad energy vision, while seeking to assist Georgia and help stabilize the regional situation. He renewed his plea, with increased urgency, for more, and more balanced, USG attention to and support for Azerbaijan, including on NK and territorial integrity. The President emphasized repeatedly the importance of Senator Lugar's visit at this important time, as Azerbaijan -grapples with regional events and implications for its key national security interests. Azerbaijan's continued strong support on realizing the Southern Corridor, providing assistance to Georgia and helping to calm the regional situation, and remaining a strong US security partner advances crucial US interests. A strong USG effort to demonstrate support for Azerbaijan now, as we grapple with momentous regional events, will pay off. DERSE