TURKISH PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN PITCHES CAUCASUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000796 SIPDIS FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018 TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV PHUM PREL TU AJ IR SUBJECT: TURKISH PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN PITCHES CAUCASUS PLATFORM TO AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ALIYEV REF: ANKARA 01513 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Turkish Embassy First Secretary Cem Ornekol told the Embassy the goal of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's August 20 visit to Baku was to gain Azerbaijan's support for Turkey's proposed Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. Ornekol said President Aliyev was receptive to the initiative, although Ornekol admitted that the Platform is still "just a framework." Ornekol said the platform aims to increase "dialogue" within the region and its immediate focus is to bolster regional security. Ornekol emphasized that the Turkish initiative seeks to complement, not duplicate, ongoing U.S., EU, and OSCE efforts in fostering regional cooperation. End Summary. Turkish Embassy: Successful Erdogan Visit -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 22, Turkish Embassy First Secretary Cem Ornekol briefed Embassy officers on Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's August 20 visit to Baku. Erdogan was in Baku for five hours, where he had a one-on-one meeting with President Aliyev. There also was a broader bilateral meeting on a range of bilateral security and energy topics, but the one-on-one meeting was the focus of the visit. During the broader bilateral meeting, Ornekol said the Azerbaijani side expressed concern about its energy pipelines through Georgia, particularly the bombing of the Georgian rail bridge carrying oil to the Black Sea. Ornekol also said that most Turkish exports to Azerbaijan were now transiting Iran rather than Georgia. With regard to Georgia, he said the general sense in the GOT was that Georgia had "provoked" Russia and had fallen into Russia's "trap." ¶3. (C) From the Turkish perspective, the goal of the visit was to secure Azerbaijani buy-in on Turkey's proposed Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. While there was no Turkish notetaker at the one-on-one meeting, Ornekol indicated the Azerbaijani side was receptive to the initiative. Ornekol admitted the platform is still "just a framework" for regional cooperation; the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been tasked with fleshing out the details of the proposal. The Turkish and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers will also cooperate on the details of the proposal. 
 (Comment: While Ornekol appeared confident the Turkish side had secured Azerbaijani consent, it appears the GOAJ was only asked to agree to a still-undefined platform. It remains to be seen if the GOAJ will agree to a more well-defined proposal with the same speed. Ornekol also noted that Erdogan had received similarly warm receptions to this idea from the governments of Russia and Georgia during his visits to Moscow and Tbilisi the week of August 11.) ¶4. (C) Ornekol said the platform aims to increase "dialogue" to advance the goal of regional cooperation. The first and immediate focus of the platform is to address security problems. To the degree the platform effectively addresses regional security problems, it could also seek to enhance regional economic and cultural cooperation. Ornekol several times noted that Ankara intends for the platform to complement, not duplicate, ongoing U.S., EU, and OSCE efforts in fostering regional cooperation. Ornekol referred to the platform as an "annex" to these ongoing efforts, and reiterated Erdogan's public statements that the platform would be based on OSCE principles. Ornekol said Ankara hopes to provide more information on the platform in the coming weeks. Comments on Russia-Georgia Conflict -------------- ¶5. (C) Separately, Ornekol said Turkey has heard rumors in the media that Russia's military operations in Georgia were specifically targeting energy infrastructure, but Turkey discounts these claims. He said the Russian strikes appeared to be directed at destroying Georgia's military infrastructure. Reflecting what we have heard from several local contacts, Ornekol questioned whether Georgian President Saakashvili will be able to stay in power when segments of his population understand that Georgia may have now effectively lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia. BAKU 00000796 002 OF 002 Erdogan's Attendance at Soccer Match in the Air -------------- -- ¶6. (C) When asked about the upcoming Turkey-Armenia soccer match in Yerevan, Ornekol said Erdogan was thinking about attending the game, but a decision on his attendance probably would not be made until the last minute. Skepticism from Local Commentators -------------- ¶7. (C) Paralleling reftel's account that local Turkish commentators are cool to the platform initiative, local Azerbaijani analysts also appear dismissive of the proposal. Baku State University Turkic History Professor Altay Geyushev told us the initiative is naive and poorly-defined, and that it does not account for Azerbaijan and Georgia's negative views of Russia's role in the Caucasus. Geyushev suggested that many educated Azerbaijanis see the proposal as a Turkish publicity stunt with little potential to affect the region's most important security problems. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The Turkish proposal appears nascent and primarily "just a framework." While the Azerbaijanis appear to have given their conceptual buy-in to vague statements about "opening dialogue," it remains to be seen whether the platform will actually have an impact on the region's key security problems. At this moment, a regional meeting including Georgia and Russia, and Azerbaijan and Armenia, seems more than a bit difficult to organize. The Embassy also notes that when the then Charge called the Turkish Ambassador on August 15 for additional context on the initiative, the Turkish Ambassador claimed not to have received any information from Ankara and that he was reliant on press reports. This causes us to wonder what (if any) robust details will actually materialize from Ankara. DERSE