AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000638

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
ELDAR NAMAZOV

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4(b,d)


1. (SBU) On July 1 the Ambassador met with Eldar Namazov,
head of the "For the Sake of Azerbaijan" forum, and a likely
candidate in the October presidential election. Namazov
requested this meeting in advance of his trip to Washington,
D.C. during the week of July 7, which is sponsored by the
International Republican Institute (IRI). Namazov hinted
that he would like the Embassy's help in arranging meetings
with high-level USG officials during his visit. Namazov
stated that Azerbaijan is at a critical point in its
democratic development, and that strong cooperation with the
United States is important in pushing Azerbaijan on the right
path.


2. (C) Namazov also expressed his opinion on a number of
other problems facing Azerbaijan. He strongly rejected the
argument, put forward by many people in Azerbaijan, that
Azerbaijan cannot fully develop as a democracy until the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict is resolved. He expressed the
opposite view: Nagorno Karabagh will not be resolved until
democratic forces can open dialogue with the Armenian side.
He explained, however, that there is apathy regarding the
elections among the Azerbaijani people. This apathy is
caused by poor living conditions, arbitrary government
actions including seizure of private property, and increasing
corruption which is forcing entrepreneurs to close their
businesses.


3. (C) Namazov asserted that the influence of the United
States in Azerbaijan has decreased when compared to ten years
ago. Namazov believes this is due partly to the Iraq war,
but mostly because people expected that, by siding with the
United States, democracy would take root in Azerbaijan faster
than it has. He claims that he tries to fight this
assertion, including during a recent debate on Radio Liberty
with Popular Front Party Chairman Ali Kerimli. According to
Namazov, this decreasing influence of the U.S. is also
related to increasing activities of Russia and Iran in the
country. Namazov believes that Russia made an agreement with
Aliyev that in exchange for Russia's support in this
election, Aliyev will limit plans for Euro-Atlantic
integration after the election. Namazov also explained that
Aliyev's regime is copying Russia's model for how to falsify
elections. While Namazov was not aware of any specific
Iranian interference in the election process, he stated that
their influence is very strong in the south of the country.
Namazov concluded the discussion by urging stronger USG
statements against the Aliyev regime, as such statements
would show the Azerbaijani people that U.S. puts a priority
on democratic reform in its relations with Azerbaijan, and
asking for more funding for Azerbaijani NGOs and civil
society.


4. (C) COMMENT: Namazov made it clear during the meeting
that he would like to meeting with senior officials in the
Department, including EUR A/S Fried and DRL A/S Kramer.
Given the GOAJ's sensitivity regarding alleged U.S. support
for opposition candidates, we recommend that the Department
provide the same level of treatment for all candidates. We
note that Musavat Party Chair Isa Gambar may also be planning
a trip to the U.S.
DERSE