AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000432

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT WITH
KEY CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION DONALD LU PER 1.4(C,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an April 28 meeting, a group of key civil
society leaders discussed the pre-election environment and
briefed the Ambassador on their plans for the October 15
presidential election. The group believes that the media
environment is the biggest problem in the pre-election
environment but also pointed to a weak opposition as part of
the problem, noting that civil society's role would be
different if there were a viable opposition candidate. The
group shared concerns that the GOAJ is no longer responsive
to international pressure but agreed that engagement remained
important. They agreed that economic reforms were necessary
to create a viable climate for political reforms. END SUMMARY


2. (U) On April 28, the Ambassador met with a group of NGO
leaders and political analysts to discuss the pre-election
environment. This meeting was the first of a series of
meetings the Ambassador will hold with representatives of
democracy and human rights organizations and political
analysts, between now and the October 15 presidential
election. Participants in the April 28 discussion included
Helsinki Citizens' Assembly Chair Arzu Abdullayeva,
Foundation to Protect Women's Rights Novella Jafaroglu,
Election Monitoring Center Executive Director Anar Mammadli,
political analyst Ilgar Mammadov, and Human Rights Center of
Azerbaijan Director Eldar Zeynalov.

PREPARING FOR TROUBLE
--------------


3. (C) Arzu Abdullayeva opened by briefing the Ambassador on
the structure of the "Coordinating Advisory Council for Free
and Fair Just Elections in Azerbaijan," an organization
comprised of 55 NGOs and three "independent experts." She
said that group was working on establishing connections with
the more than 400 international NGOs which have consultative
status with the Council of Europe. Abdullayeva said that the
human rights activists already were considering their
security for the period surrounding the election because of
problems they faced during the 2003 presidential election,
including "police attacks" on independent activists.
According to Abdullayeva, the council will conduct a
coordinated monitoring of the election, including a "mini"
parallel vote tabulation. She said the human rights
activists also would continue to monitor the overall
situation and maintain an already-functioning hotline which
citizens can call with human rights questions or reports of
abuse. At present, Abdullayeva said the council was focused
on raising awareness about citizens' role in the election,
and planning voter education activities. Greater voter
turnout, she explained, would diminish the GOAJ's chance of
committing electoral fraud.


4. (C) Ilgar Mammadov stressed his concern that the GOAJ no
longer responds to international pressure. While in the
past, high-level visits and tough statements could affect
some degree of change, he said that is no longer the case.
Mammadov emphasized the need for a higher level of
international pressure, stating that the GOAJ needed to face
the threat of isolation from the international community in
order to take steps towards reform. Mammadov saw no end in
sight for the problems on the democracy and human rights
front, particularly the media freedom situation. He does not
believe that the GOAJ is pursuing a particular policy line
through its actions; rather, he said the GOAJ is concerned
only with enforcement. Mammadov fears that the GOAJ will do
whatever it likes in the period surrounding the election,
then point to the Armenian Government's actions during its
presidential election and cry "double standards" if the West
criticizes the GOAJ. He briefed the Ambassador on his plans
to survey representatives of Azerbaijan's business community
and develop a "national business agenda," which he would
present to presidential candidates to seek their opinion.
This, Mammadov hoped, would inspire a national debate and
eventually improve Azerbaijan's business environment.

GOVERNMENT SMEAR CAMPAIGNS
--------------


5. (C) Novella Jafaroglu criticized the GOAJ for its claims
that the international community is using double standards in
dealing with Azerbaijan and Armenia. She emphasized her
disgust with the "smear campaigns" the GOAJ is conducting
against prominent opposition leaders, particularly a
documentary that recently aired on pro-government Lider TV
attempting to discredit Popular Front Party Chair Ali
Kerimli, using foul language and nudity, and public
statements that Azadliq newspaper journalist Agil Khalil is

homosexual. This campaign is particularly dangerous,
Jafaroglu said, because the vast majority of the population
watches TV rather than getting its news from radio or
newspapers. She said that in the past, opposition
politicians could purchase television airtime even in the
pre-election period, even on pro-government stations, but now
it was far too expensive for most in the opposition to
afford. Jafaroglu asked how it was possible to speak about a
fair and free election when the environment is this bad only
six months out. She solicited the Embassy's support to
conduct pre-election activities in Azerbaijan's regions,
noting that due to the interference of local authorities, it
is becoming increasingly difficult for NGOs to conduct any
activities in the regions.


6. (C) Eldar Zeynalov compared the GOAJ's attitude toward
elections to Stalin's, stating that it was more important who
counted the ballots and how they were counted than who voted
and how they voted. Zeynalov expressed disappointment with
the U.S. reaction to the 2005 parliamentary elections, noting
that the human rights activists believe that the "major
players" in the international community will accept any
results in October's election. He said his organization
would monitor the election, but saw no point in educating
voters about the process and their rights because of the
extensive problems in the pre-election environment. Zeynalov
noted that presidential elections are outside the purview of
the European Court of Human Rights, so Azerbaijanis had no
hope of challenging election results. Freedom of expression
is in a particularly terrible state, he said, referencing the
arrests of journalists who had criticized public officials.
Zeynalov saw a need for financial and political amnesty of
persons imprisoned for politically motivated reasons. He
concluded by rhetorically asking how Azerbaijan could
integrate into international structures when its economy was
based on a mafia mentality rather than a free market.

BLAMING THE OPPOSITION
--------------


7. (C) Mammadov said that the real problem in this election
will be the lack of viable candidates. If there were a
legitimate competition, he said, civil society's role would
be much different. Mammadov labeled the GOAJ's "smear
campaigns" on prominent opposition leaders as "attacks on
potential candidates." He said this was intended to provoke
them into participating, in order to make the election seem
more legitimate because of multiple contenders. According to
Mammadov, this is nothing new; the GOAJ has done this
successfully in previous elections, he said. Abdullayeva
chimed in: "How is it that the President, that the
government can ignore all international recommendations?"


8. (C) Anar Mammadli said that Azerbaijan is currently in a
state of political stagnation, due to citizens' lack of
interest political participation. He said that regardless of
the election's outcome, it was important to mobilize
different groups to participate, such as women, youth, and
NGOs. Mammadli shared his belief that releasing the
imprisoned journalists would provide Azerbaijanis with some
inspiration to participate in political activity, as would
positively revising the electoral code or providing state
support to the mass media. He said it was important for the
GOAJ to include the public in the details of its discussions
with the Council of Europe's Venice Commission on potential
changes to the electoral code and the law on freedom of
assembly. Mammadli explained that the Election Monitoring
Center (EMC) was planning different methods of short- and
long-term election monitoring, including a USG-funded
parallel vote tabulation. He requested the Embassy's
assistance in securing registration for EMC's observers, and
echoed Jafaroglu's concerns about NGO's ability to conduct
activities in the regions.


9. (C) According to Jafaroglu, some of the problems in the
pre-election environment can be blamed on the opposition's
unwillingness to participate. Regardless of the format of
events, she said that participation was key. "They shouldn't
behave like lawyers or kings; they should meddle in
everything," she said. Mammadov added that in order to
participate, an opposition had to exist first, blaming the
current weak opposition on the economic situation. Because
of the growing oil revenues, he said, society was
overdependent on the GOAJ. Mammadov argued that economic
reform was the key to political reform. He saw a five-year
window to accomplish this; after that, he said, it would take
much longer. Jafaroglu noted that prices are expected to
increase imminently, which would create an unstable election
climate. Agreeing that inflation was dangerous, Mammadov

said that the lack of fiscally conservative voices in
Parliament contributed to the GOAJ's excessive spending.
Zeynalov added that the GOAJ's foreign debt was worrisome,
but Mammadov countered that it was not a problem; that the
real problem remained government expenditures.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) The group's concerns were not surprising and largely
right on the mark, but it is discouraging that these key
civil society leaders are going into an election with such a
uniformly negative set of expectations. It is positive,
however, that they are choosing to conduct their work despite
the difficult operating environment. We will continue to
solicit thoughts on the pre-election climate and suggestions
for international involvement from other key civil society
leaders, and will report septel.
DERSE