AZERBAIJAN ECONOMY CONTINUES EXPANSION IN 2007;

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000322 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2018 TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL ETRD AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ECONOMY CONTINUES EXPANSION IN 2007; OUTLOOK FOR 2008 STABLE Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER REASONS 1.4 B, D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Azerbaijan's economic performance in 2007 showed increasing resilience and strength as GDP grew by more than 25 percent, a slight moderation in previous years' growth of more than 30 percent. Azerbaijan's growth prospects remain closely linked to oil prices, given that the energy sector provides 95 percent of total export earnings and more than 50 percent of GDP and 60 percent of budget revenue. The IMF in its mid-March regular Article IV discussions with the Government of Azerbaijan (GOAJ) was cautiously optimistic that the government is aware of the macroeconomic risks despite some shortcomings. In 2008, the economy looks to continue its growth with Azerbaijan receiving a larger share of profits from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli production sharing agreement. Key macroeconomic issues such as exchange rate adjustment and related price pressures, expansionary fiscal policy and the slow growth in the non-energy tradeables sector remain the major challenges for the GOAJ to manage before and after the upcoming Presidential elections in October. END SUMMARY. CONTINUED GDP GROWTH -------------- ¶2. (C) Over the past three years Azerbaijan has experienced rapid GDP growth exceeding 30 percent in 2005 and 2006; 2007 GDP growth slowed to approximately 25 percent. With Azerbaijan's energy sector maturing with the completion of major pipeline projects, such as ACG and BTC, economic growth will remain elevated but slow to more moderate levels in the longer-term. Azerbaijan's growth prospects are closely linked to oil prices, given that the energy sector provides 95 percent of total export earnings and more than 50 percent of GDP and 60 percent of budget revenue. The non-tradeable sectors remain robust due to the large construction and energy services sectors and the broader stimulus impact of disposal income growth on service sector expansion. The non-energy tradeable sector, however, has seen its growth hampered by non-trade barriers and a stronger Azerbaijani manat. HIGHER INFLATION -------------- ¶3. (C) According to the mid-March IMF Article IV mission, initial estimates indicated that inflation in 2007 had reached approximately 19.5 percent and was "trending upwards." (NOTE: This CPI figure is based on official GOAJ statistics.) The IMF reports that the upward trend is "worrisome" and could indicate higher price levels in 2008 and 2009. Although the IMF noted that some price increases in Azerbaijan were due to higher global prices for commodities, the IMF believes that the GOAJ's expansionary fiscal policy was a major factor in higher inflation. The IMF mission said that the GOAJ's projected inflation rate of 13 percent was "not realistic," adding that inflation could pass 20 percent in 2008. In addition, the IMF noted that in 2007 there had been a 100 percent increase in credit expansion. During its visit, the IMF recommended to the National Bank that it strictly monitor the situation and ensure that local banks were applying appropriate, more stringent risk analysis and standards to their loan portfolio. ¶4. (C) CPI calculations by the USAID-funded Economic Research Center indicated that inflation reached close to 29 percent in 2007. A similar CPI study done by the local American Chamber of Commerce indicated that inflation in 2007 passed 30 percent. Anecdotal evidence of the impact of the increases in food and good prices on the local population appears to indicate an increasingly difficult living environment; bread prices, for example, have increased by 50 percent this year. Local employers, including the GOAJ, are compensating with salary increases (see para 7). The IMF has previously warned the GOAJ of the dangers of a price-wage spiral that fuels itself as the government attempts to maintain incomes. ¶5. (C) The IMF characterized the GOAJ's exchange rate policy as "passive" and advocated that the National Bank adopt a more balanced approach to managing the real effective exchange rate adjustment, inevitably associated with on going massive inflows of foreign exchange. The IMF said that in 2007 the GOAJ appeared to favor higher inflation rather than nominal manat appreciation. The Azerbaijani manat in 2007 appreciated in nominal terms against the U.S. dollar by less than 3.5 percent. On average, the manat depreciated in nominal terms by four percent against currencies of Azerbaijan's major trading partners. The IMF mission said that it had recommended to the National Bank a more balanced monetary policy. The IMF added that following its recommendation the National Bank had already begun the process to adjust its monetary policy and would eventually peg the manat to a basket of currencies. EXPANSIONARY BUDGET -------------- ¶6. (C) The GOAJ consolidated budget has doubled since 2005. (The 2008 budget is more than USD 20 billion while in 2005 the budget barely reached USD 10 billion.) The IMF mission characterized the 2008 state budget as "expansionary." According to the IMF, the GOAJ did not fully implement (95 percent) the 2007 budget. The IMF said that coordination of macroeconomic policy within the GOAJ was "not effective." It noted that the GOAJ had converted one-third of its total 2007 foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter of 2007, contributing to higher inflation in 2008. The IMF recognized that the GOAJ is under political and social pressure to continue spending which, it believed, could lead to higher inflation in 2008 and 2009. ¶7. (C) The IMF reported that Azerbaijan had no constraints on its near to medium term fiscal stability based on its increasing energy revenues. The major long-term constraint, according to the IMF, is macroeconomic instability which would be associated with locking in recurrent expenditures at a level which is unsustainable once natural resource-driven revenues begin to decline. As in previous years, it is likely that the GOAJ will adopt a large mid-year supplemental budget. The Finance Ministry indicated to the IMF that the supplemental budget would start at USD 300 million and probably end up much higher. (In 2007, the GOAJ supplemental budget totaled nearly USD 750 million despite efforts by Ministers Sharifov and Babayev to hold back additional spending.) The Ministries of Finance and Economic Development also told the IMF mission that this year's supplemental budget would include a substantial increase in pension and salary payments. ¶8. (C) Key GOAJ ministers, such as Finance Minister Sharifov, Economic Development Minister Babayev and National Bank Chairman Rustamov, are aware of the macroeconomic risks of spending too much too quickly. In numerous meetings with the Ambassador, Sharifov and Babayev have emphasized their interest in restraining spending, and worked together during the 2008 budget preparation process to limit GOAJ spending. It is critical that more rigorous and transparent planning procedures be put into place for the burgeoning capital budget. Political pressure, however, to spend money and show benefits of oil revenue is extremely high, and is likely to continue through the Presidential election in October. (COMMENT: Reforms of the budget preparation/execution and public investment planning process are top agenda items in USG policy dialogue and technical assistance programs in Azerbaijan. END COMMENT) NON-ENERGY SECTOR -------------- ¶9. (C) Major structural impediments continue to hinder growth in non-oil sectors, according to the IMF. Monopolies and corrupt GOAJ agencies, such as the Customs Committee, remain the primary barrier to entry for many companies. The GOAJ has taken some steps to address theses problems, notably the creation in January of a new "one-stop-shop" to register new businesses as recommended by the World Bank and the IFC, but much work remains to be done. According to the IMF, which relies on official GOAJ statistics, the non-energy sector grew by nearly 12 percent in 2007. The IMF noted that the agricultural sector rebounded in 2007, while recognizing that agricultural growth data levels were extremely low so even the smallest increase in production would boost growth figures. ¶10. (C) Despite the rebound in the agricultural sector in 2007, the sector still lacks much of the basic infrastructure required to be a real engine of growth. U.S. irrigation equipment manufacturer Valmont and local agricultural equipment dealer TI Agroservis (the John Deere rep),for example, have complained that the lack of GOAJ infrastructure development (water, electricity, roads, and other basic infrastructure) have hindered their commercial prospects and the overall capacity of Azerbaijan's once-vibrant agriculture sector. Valmont noted that even local conglomerate powerhouse Azersun was having trouble getting electricity and is having to go almost 40 kilometers to Iran to hook into the nearest power station. ¶11. (C) The GOAJ's goals to develop rapidly the telecommunications and IT sector has run into similar difficulties. According to Minister of Communications and Information Technologies Ali Abbasov, the GOAJ's much-ambitious plan to develop Regional Innovation Zones has faltered due to objections from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economic Development, and Ministry of Taxes. Abbasov said that President Aliyev advised him to break the RIZ concept down into separate smaller projects and to submit the more limited proposals to Parliament for case-by-case approval. The original RIZ proposal was reportedly over 800 pages long and included a call for revamping the legislative, tax, customs and overall business environment for IT sectors to enable growth. (COMMENT: The USG has pushed the GOAJ to establish a high-level interministerial working group to address the urgent need for a more effective agricultural/rural development policy, offering technical support. A Presidential decree to establish this group is being prepared by the Cabinet of Ministers. END COMMENT) PUBLIC INVESTMENT PLANNING -------------- ¶12. (C) The IMF has highlighted the need for the GOAJ to improve its public investment program and medium-term economic framework planning, noting that the GOAJ needed to strengthen project selection, prioritization and monitoring of public projects. The IMF mission indicated that improving the public investment process would ensure that oil revenues were spent in a more efficient manner. In addition, the IMF told Finance Minister Sharifov that the GOAJ could moderate spending over a longer period of time and reach the same goals. Azerbaijan's increasing capital investment program combined with its opaque government procurement system increases the possibility for corruption and misappropriation of critical energy revenues. The GOAJ is working with the World Bank on steps required to improve its "Doing Business" ranking (see para 9). COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Azerbaijan's positive economic growth and growing national reserves provide it with a solid foundation to continue to modernize and strengthen its economy. The IMF was generally positive on Azerbaijan's economic management, yet continues to raise concerns about the rate of fiscal spending. The tremendous growth of state budgets over the past four years targeted to address poverty reduction, unemployment and Azerbaijan's many social and physical infrastructure needs, imparts Azerbaijan's ability to safeguard its energy revenues for long-term, sustainable development. Economic decision-makers are aware that they are treading a fine line between maintaining macroeconomic stability and fulfilling Azerbaijan's modernization needs in this election year. The GOAJ's current policy is unlikely to change in the run-up to Azerbaijan's October presidential election, as President Aliyev and his Cabinet feel public pressure to show the benefits of Azerbaijan's energy revenues, and to address the country's real development needs. Going forward, it is critical that the annual growth in expenditures be flattened in order to support sustainable long-term development. DERSE