THE EMPRESS HAS NO CLOTHES: A LOOK AT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000163 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM PINR AJ SUBJECT: THE EMPRESS HAS NO CLOTHES: A LOOK AT THE "MEHRIBAN PARTY" REF: BAKU 93 Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A 2007 press report speculating that a "new" pro-government party, the Democratic Azerbaijan World Party, was being created to support the First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva's 2013 presidential bid continues to resonate, creating rumors that Aliyeva is launching a move against the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP). Both YAP and the Democratic Azerbaijan World Party denied the reports and blamed the opposition for what they dismissed as "crap" and "rubbish." Leaders of other political parties also doubted that the First Lady was involved, but believed that someone within the ruling elite could be supporting such a party as a back-up plan should the current administration collapse. Public rumblings about Aliyeva's political ambitions likely reflect the ongoing power shift from Azerbaijan's traditional clan-based politics to a new Baku-based order focused on money and commercial interests, in which the First Lady's family features prominently. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) In a November 2007 article that continues to be picked up by other media outlets, independent Turan news agency reported that a "new" pro-government party was being created to spread ruling party propaganda and support President Ilham Aliyev's re-election in October 2008. This party, which Turan alleged would take over the pre-existing Democratic Azerbaijan World Party (DAWP),would likely be headed by First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva. Turan reported that the party had been created to squeeze out the traditional Nakhchivani and YerAz clans which have dominated Azerbaijan's ruling elite, replacing the clan-based elite with a new Baku-based leader. The article speculated that the new party would eventually support First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva's presidential campaign in 2013. Baku's chattering classes quickly picked up on the Turan article, and rumors spread that the First Lady was launching a political move against the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP). Perhaps in response to the rumors, in a December article in the state-run newspaper, President Aliyev referred to his wife as his "great supporter," and cryptically noted that there should be "no opposition" in a family (reftel). ALIZADE: THIS IS "CRAP" STARTED BY THE OPPOSITION -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) DAWP Chair Mammad Alizade explained that he founded the party in 1992; it was registered with the GOAJ in 1993 and again in 1995. According to Alizade, the DAWP was clearly pro-government, and was part of a coalition of pro-government parties, which he said had 11 members. The idea that the DAWP supported the First Lady, said Alizade, was "crap" started by the opposition. While the party generally respected the First Lady and supported her work in the villages surrounding Baku, Alizade said the DAWP's main focus was to support the ruling party's policies as defined by late former President Heydar Aliyev, and to campaign for current President Ilham Aliyev's re-election. According to Alizade, the DAWP boasted 170,000 official members, but would review many more applications for membership and announce its new membership totals in the coming weeks. ¶4. (C) Speaking at length about Heydar Aliyev's vision for Azerbaijan, Alizade said the party was trying to build democratic development and a strong civil society. One of the biggest obstacles to democratic development in Azerbaijan, said Alizade, was corruption. He said the DAWP was engaged in a grassroots movement against corruption, but he could not provide any specific examples of such activity. When POLOFF asked how he attracted new members to the party, Alizade responded "Azerbaijanis prefer pure, honest people. I'm this type of person, and people know it." He said he had systematically identified prominent individuals in villages throughout the country, such as "white beards," the term Azerbaijanis widely use to describe respected community leaders. According to Alizade, the DAWP operated on "the principle of friendship." "The successes," he continued, "are obvious." ¶5. (C) Alizade said the DAWP had attracted some members from opposition parties. He described those individuals as the "wealthy wing" of the opposition, those who were active in the national independence movement and had "love and respect" for Heydar and Ilham Aliyev. Alizade believed those individuals had left the opposition for the DAWP because they "knew and trusted" him personally. He said he had refrained from passing this information to the media because it was a "dirty tactic," and while he would not comment on the total number of the DAWP's former opposition members, he said they were all "prominent in their regions." ¶6. (C) According to Alizade, the opposition had created rumors about the DAWP in order to create provocations between the party and the ruling party. He speculated that in doing so, the opposition was seeking revenge for the loss of its members who had joined the DAWP. Alizade launched into a diatribe against the opposition, noting that opposition politicians prefer to fight for the position of president rather than taking steps to resolve the country's problems. He said that while there are some intelligent oppositionists, there is no room for intellect in the opposition political scene, which he believed has been dominated by the same politicians for too long. "One day (Popular Front Party Chair) Ali Kerimli will leave the political scene," said Alizade, "and society's treatment of (Musavat Party Chair) Isa Gambar will change." Looping himself in with the other politicos who got their start in the national independence movement, Alizade said "we're good organizers, but not great leaders." That was why, Alizade concluded, the DAWP chose to support President Aliyev. RULING PARTY DISMISSES RUMORS AS "RUBBISH" -------------- ¶7. (C) The ruling party dismissed allegations that the First Lady had a hand in creating a new political party. With visible agitation, ruling YAP Executive Secretary and de facto Chair Ali Ahmadov labeled the rumors "rubbish." He noted that Aliyeva was elected to Parliament as a ruling party MP and is a member of the party's executive secretariat. Referring to the DAWP, Ahmadov said that SIPDIS Alizade "is familiar to all of us" and was trying to create a council of small parties. "We consider this rubbish" he repeated. OTHER PARTIES DOUBT FIRST LADY'S INVOLVEMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Opposition Azerbaijan Democratic Party Chair Sardar Jalaloglu said he did not believe the First Lady was personally involved in the DAWP; he noted that it is common practice in Azerbaijan for others to use the names of members of the Aliyev family to accomplish their own political goals. According to Jalaloglu, there is an ongoing clan struggle, with the traditional Nakhchivan and YerAz clans being replaced by the First Lady's relatives, the Pashayevs. Referring to the Pashayevs' vast commercial interests -- which he listed as including Pasha Holdings, NAR mobile, an upscale new shopping center in downtown Baku, and various construction companies -- Jalaloglu said the family was placing relatives in strategic cultural positions. The family, he continued, was also gaining support in Baku and the surrounding villages. Jalaloglu said the clan struggle was evidenced by the imprisonment of former ministers Farhad Aliyev and Ali Insanov; the scuffle in Parliament that resulted in the formerly pro-government Hussein Abdullayev losing his seat; and the fact that the President's uncle, the infamously salty and abrasive Member of Parliament Jalal Aliyev, has maintained an unusually low profile over the past year. Jalaloglu said that DAWP Chair Alizade was "crazy," and that the party, as an alternative to the YAP, was attempting to lure members from the opposition. The ruling elite's goal, he concluded, was simply to prolong its time in power. ¶9. (C) "Pocket" opposition Hope Party Chair Igbal Agazade also did not believe that the DAWP was intended to be a political vehicle for the First Lady. He speculated that someone within the government -- perhaps at the cabinet level -- but not the First Lady, was supporting the DAWP. According to Agazade, voters would not be fooled by the DAWP; they would see it as the same as the ruling party. While the DAWP might lure a few members away from the opposition, he concluded that the party would not be a serious factor in Azerbaijan's political life. Pseudo-independent Azerbaijan Democratic Reforms Party Chair Asim Mollazade agreed that the First Lady was not involved with the DAWP; rather, he believed that someone within the government was backing the party. According to Mollazade, there were fractures within the ruling party due to the existence of four or five groups trying to protect their own interests. He said he could confirm long-standing rumors that some opposition parties were backed by cabinet-level officials, but did not give a specific example. Mollazade offered the explanation that ministers engaged in such activity were trying to ensure that they had a back-up plan should the current administration collapse. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Although the local press continues to keep the issue alive, we were hard-pressed to find anyone who believes that Mehriban Aliyeva is launching a bid to create her own political party. Further, Alizade's first-hand denial of supporting Aliyeva, coupled with the fact that the DAWP is not politically active and that Alizade is not taken seriously, makes it improbable that the DAWP would be the First Lady's vehicle of choice for her own political ambitions. While conventional wisdom holds that Aliyeva likely will run for president in 2013, she has been very supportive of her husband and is unlikely to present any public opposition to his power or his policies. We expect the First Lady to support the President's candidacy for re-election in the October presidential election, and to stand by his side through the remainder of his tenure in office. ¶11. (C) Like other political observers in Baku, we also believe that the power structure is shifting from a clan-based system to a new Baku-based system that centers around money and commercial interests. The once all-powerful clans likely are behind some of the "Mehriban Party" rumors, as they seek to regain power and position by creating divisions among the new Baku-based elite. Given the ruling elite's regular use of the press to attack its rivals, we expect that rumors such as the "Mehriban Party" will surface with increasing frequency. The real power changes, however, are likely to be made within the closed-door confines of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party. BIO NOTE -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Mammad Alizade is the director of Baku State University's printing house. A native of the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, Alizade was active in the Popular Front movement of the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was arrested in connection with the 1990 January 20 "Black January" events, and served a nine-month prison sentence in Russia's infamous Lefortovo prison alongside prominent oppositionist Etibar Mammadov and national writer Khalil Rza. Although he founded the Democratic World Azerbaijan Party in 1992, Alizade maintained a very low political profile from the time of his resignation from the Popular Front until the press speculation surrounding the party began in November ¶2007. Alizade is the author of 17 books and hundreds of articles, ranging in topic from science and mathematics to Azerbaijan's modern history and the work of late former President Heydar Aliyev. DERSE