AZERBAIJAN KEEPING WARY EYE ON ARMENIAN ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000147 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PINR AM AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN KEEPING WARY EYE ON ARMENIAN ELECTIONS, FEARS POSSIBLE PROVOCATION ON LINE OF CONTACT Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Senior Azerbaijani leaders are keeping a wary eye on Armenia's February 19 presidential election, worrying that the hotly contested election could have implications for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Minister of National Security Mahmudov confirmed that the GOAJ has information from a "credible source" indicating that Prime Minister Sargsian's camp is considering a provocation along the Line of Contact or the Armenia-Azerbaijan border if it looks like the election is not turning out in Sargsian's favor. While Mahmudov said he is taking this information seriously, he was less alarmist than Foreign Minister Mammadyarov, who first raised this issue with the Ambassador. Mahmudov stressed that Azerbaijan wants stability in Armenia, as its internal political developments "are automatically connected to us." End summary. ¶2. (C) Foreign Minister Mammadyarov told the Ambassador on February 13 that the GOAJ was worried about intelligence from a "credible source in Sargsian's camp" that Armenian Prime Minister Sargsian is considering three options in case the February 19 election does not go in his favor: falsification, assassination of Ter-Petrossian, or a provocation along either the Line of Contact or the border. Mammadyarov said he was extremely worried about the possibility that the Armenians could be planning a provocation along the Line of Contact - and particularly along the border. "This could be very dangerous" and "could be a serious message," he said. Mammadyarov stressed that Azerbaijan avoids involvement in Armenia's internal affairs and repeated that such a provocation could be "very dangerous." With full appreciation of the irony, Mammadyarov laughed and told the Ambassador he would prefer that the Armenians pursue falsification. He suggested the Ambassador discuss the report with Minister of National Security Eldar Mahmudov. ¶3. (C) Minister of National Security Mahmudov confirmed on February 15 that this is a "serious issue" that the GOAJ is closely monitoring. He told the Ambassador that the GOAJ considers the internal political situation in Armenia to be "tense," due primarily to the fact that Sargsian and Kocharian are "discredited" and regarded by the Armenian �A;public as "national enemies." While Sargsian and Kocharian continue to retain significant support from within the military and law enforcement agencies, others within these "power ministries" are supporting Ter-Petrossian. Mahmudov characterized this as a "highly explosive situation" and said he believes Kocharian is looking for options to avoid a political crisis in the aftermath of the election, including a possible provocation along the Line of Contact or the border, that would divert attention from domestic politics. Mahmudov noted that no one would be around to observe and judge what actually happens along the Line of Contact. ¶4. (C) Mahmudov expects that Sargsian will declare an emergency situation in the aftermath of the election and ban all political activity. He commented that all of Sargsian's plans are "drafted by Moscow" as they are "beyond the capacity of Armenia's special services." Mahmudov said he had raised the issue of Russia's support for Armenia "many times" in his discussions with his Russian counterparts, arguing that Russia is spending a fortune on assistance to Armenia in pursuit of great game strategy that no longer is relevant. Mahmudov claimed that his Russian counterparts admit that Russian support for Armenia is a "mistake" and that they have no idea where their policies may lead. Mahmudov also asserted that Armenia's policies have proven bankrupt as nearly 20 years after occupying Azerbaijani territory the Armenian leadership has made no progress toward its goal of legally uniting the occupied territories with Armenia. The Armenian leadership, he said, "has been deceiving its own people." ¶5. (C) Mahmudov concluded that the GOAJ's information concerning possible Armenian provocations along the Line of Contact is "serious and credible." However, he believes that the risk of any provocation depends on the course of internal developments within Armenia. The GOAJ has information that Sargsian is considering "other options" as well, including falsification of the election. Mahmudov told the Ambassador that Azerbaijan is keeping careful watch on election-related developments because Armenia is a neighboring state and Azerbaijan would "hate to see serious problems there." "All those issues are automatically connected to us," Mahmudov said, and "we want stability in Armenia." ¶6. (C) Comment: Foreign Minister Mammadyarov likely shared this information with us in attempt to influence as well as inform U.S. opinion on Armenia's election. While agreeing that the information that Armenia was considering a provocation along the Line of Contact was "serious and credible," Minister of National Security Mahmudov seemed less alarmed than Mahmudov by the possibility. DERSE