AZERBAIJAN: PARLIAMENT CALLS REFERENDUM ON TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001185 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC, DRL (WSILVERMAN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PARLIAMENT CALLS REFERENDUM ON TERM LIMITS REF: BAKU 1183 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES DONALD LU, REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (C) Summary: As expected (Reftel),the Milli Majlis today approved a measure calling for a referendum on changing Azerbaijan's constitution to remove the present two-term limit on the President. For such a referendum to pass, over fifty percent would have to vote for passage in a turnout of at least twenty-five percent, a threshold which Embassy feels certain will be met. End summary. ¶2. (U) The Milli Majlis today voted 95-4 to send a proposal to amend the Azerbaijani constitution to remove the current two-term limitation on the President of Azerbaijan to the Constitutional Court for review. If the Constitutional Court replies to the Parliament by December 26 as envisioned, the referendum would most likely be scheduled for March. Once the Court has delivered a positive opinion on the measure, the parliament will set the date for a referendum. Also included in the measure is a separate proposal that would allow citizens the right of legislative initiative, if a group of 40,000 signatories proposes a petition. ¶3. (C) The Institute of Peace and Democracy, led by opposition activist Leyla Yunus, organized a discussion of the referendum today that was attended by all of the significant opposition figures. The Embassies of the United States, UK and Germany, as well as the OSCE mission in Baku sent local employee representatives. Unsurprisingly, the opposition leaders were unanimous in their disapproval of the referendum, with one speaker suggesting that President Aliyev should follow Putin's example and decline to go forward with such a change during his term as President. Speakers contended, as we did in reftel, that the GOAJ's urgency in pushing the referendum now is linked to uncertainty over the economy as oil prices remain low and the financial crisis continues. ¶4. (C) Comment: As we have noted, the only thing remarkable or unexpected about this is the dispatch with which the GOAJ is approaching the referendum. We maintain the view that passage of the referendum is a foregone conclusion. Constitutional means for changing term limits exist and are apparently being followed, notwithstanding the generally chilling effect this will likely have on Azerbaijan's democratic development. ¶5. (C) Comment continued: It is clear that Azerbaijan's referendum on term limits is a negative step for Azerbijan's democracy in an environment in which poliical competition is actively discouraged by those in power. For the moment and in public, the Embassy believes that the USG should use questions about this referendum as opportunities to highlight other areas of human rights and democracy concern, particularly media freedom and freedom of assembly. Finally, we note that at COB in Baku today it was not fully clear whether other proposed amendments also oriented toward strengthening the central government had been attached as riders to the proposal. Septels will address any other proposals going forward. End comment. LU