AZERBAIJAN: POSSIBLE REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001183 SIPDIS DEPT FOR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC, DRL (WSILVERMAN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: POSSIBLE REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENTIAL TERM LIMITS Classified By: CDA DONALD LU, REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) Summary: Several recent reports have surfaced in the Azerbaijani press of proposals in the Milli Majlis (Parliament) for a referendum on removing the constitutional prohibition against an individual serving more than two terms as president, which at present requires President Aliyev to step down at the end of his current term in 2013. This cable explains the applicable constitutional procedure and probable timeline for the referendum. Embassy assesses that there is a high likelihood of the referendum going forward successfully. The Milli Majilis may act on a proposal as soon as December 19. End Summary. -------------- The Legal-Procedural Basis -------------- ¶2. (U) Presidential terms are limited to two for any one person by Article 101(V) of the Constitution. Article 152 of the Constitution stipulates that any amendment to the Constitution that envisions an alteration to the original text must be submitted to a referendum (Note: "Constitutional laws" that do not contradict existing provisions do not require a referendum but a parliamentary supermajority. End Note.) The right of initiative for a referendum resides with the President, the Milli Majlis, and the people; in the latter case by a petition to the Milli Majlis with 300,000 qualified signatures. The authority in that case derives from Article 122.2 of the Election Code. ¶3. (U) The Constitution (Article 153) also provides that the Constitutional Court shall render an opinion on constitutional changes submitted to referendum in advance of voting. The Election Code provides the legal basis for the conduct of the referendum, and specifies in Article 139.1 that a 25 per cent minimum turnout is necessary for a valid result. The Election code does not specify a minimum time period between the announcement of the referendum and the day of voting. However, it implies in Article 124.2 ) by requiring precinct election commissioners to provide copies of the draft of the referendum to voters a minimum of 30 days in advance ) that at least a month's campaigning is envisioned. Article 124.1 of the Code requires the publication of the referendum proposal. -------------- The Proposal and the Political Calendar -------------- ¶4. (U) At the present there is not a formal proposal for a referendum to remove the constitutional term limit, however the parliamentary leader of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP),Ali Ahmedov, broached the issue at a December 16 session of the Milli Majlis. Ahmedov argued that the term limit is an undemocratic limitation on the rights of voters. He moved that the issue be placed on Parliament's agenda, and on December 18 the standing commissions on human rights and legal policy and state structures held a joint discussion on the subject. The Milli Majlis scheduled a second floor session for December 19. It is possible ) although we do not have confirmation that it is planned - that a proposal for a referendum could be taken up at this session. (Comment: If put to a vote, it would certainly pass as the Milli Majlis is overwhelming controlled by the ruling YAP Party and "independent" parties sympathetic to YAP. End Comment.) Other amendments are also reportedly under consideration, and will be reported septel. -------------- Why Now? -------------- ¶5. (C) Comment: Although the idea that President Aliyev would seek to remain in office past 2013 is not a surprising )- even if for no other reason than his age (47) -- it is somewhat surprising that the proposal would come so soon after his reelection. It may be that the ruling party calculates that the President's power and popularity are at their peak now, and they do not wish to gamble with what the future might hold in this respect if oil prices remain low or fall further, or if the global financial crisis hits Azerbaijan. They likely believe that even if these things happen, there will not be an opponent with the stature to challenge Aliyev if he is able to run. Moreover, the ruling party does not appear to be grooming a successor. The influence and example of Russia and its governing structures is also very important in Azerbaijan. The speed with which the Russian Duma approved President Medvedev's term limit amendments in November may well be replicated here. It is worth noting, however, that Medvedev excluded the possibility that he personally would benefit from an extended term. ¶6. (C) Comment continued: Considering the legal prerequisites for a referendum, it appears that at least a month's interval after the adoption of a parliamentary proposal would be needed to prepare for the vote. The requirement to obtain a court opinion in advance and special regulations pertaining to pre-referendum campaigning and advertising realistically also impose time requirements. However, there is little reason that a referendum could not take place in as little as two months from the adoption of a parliamentary initiative. With the shrinking political space in terms of political party rights, freedom of assembly and freedom of speech, President Aliyev has effectively prevented significant political challengers from emerging. Given this lack of obvious alternatives, the electorate would almost certainly support a referendum to extend term limits. LU