SOUTHERN PROVINCES MARCH 28 UPDATE AS OF 2100L

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000960 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV MOPS IR SUBJECT: SOUTHERN PROVINCES MARCH 28 UPDATE AS OF 2100L Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR MATT TUELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Despite ongoing clashes in Basrah, the other southern provinces remain tense but relatively stable, with incremental security improvements through the day reported in Dhi Qar, Maysan, Karbala and Wasit. Muthanna remains stable. Periodic clashes have occurred in Diwaniyah, and Babil remains a potential flashpoint for wider JAM and GOI conflict. End Summary. Babil -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Provincial JAM leader Haider Witwit spent the night of March 27 with other JAM leaders formalizing a list of demands for the provincial government. These demands were presented to a representative of the PM (Abu Ahmed al-Basri, Da'wa),Deputy PC Chair Na'ama Jasim (Da'wa),and governor representative Abu Muhammad (ISCI) on behalf of JAM by tribal shaykhs from Hamza, Haashamiyah, and Qasim. After an hour and half of discussion no agreement was reached. Na'ama allegedly told the shaykhs if OMS leadership did not meet the PM's demands within three days he would "switch off" JAM activity in Babil. ¶3. (S/NF) According to CF, between 150-200 insurgents have been killed in Babil. IP are performing alongside IA in a more robust and professional manner than during previous engagements. The REO was hit by IDF on the evening of March 27 with no casualties. The Hillah mayor and District Council Chair praised recent ISF operations and said the public is blaming the insurgents for the recent unrest. Dhi Qar -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) After clashes between ISF and JAM during the evening of March 27, the majority of the province, including Nasiriyah, Ashatra, and Souq as Shuyukh remains under ISF control. Despite GOI and some media claims that "hundreds of fighters" were in the streets, CF forces could only confirm several small groups of fighters. By order of the governor, the Tribal Shock Unit (TSU),supported by ODA, entered Nasiriyah and conducted operations against unknown targets. The TSU is led by Maj. Khalid, an ISCI loyalist and younger brother of assassinated TSU leader Abu Liqa. PRT assesses that the governor is seizing an opportunity to go after OMS before the upcoming elections. Local media were generally complimentary of ISF performance. Diwaniyah -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) In Diwaniyah, a curfew remains in effect at least through Saturday, March 29. Periodic skirmishes between JAM and ISF occurred between March 26 and March 28, mainly at ISF checkpoints on roads linking Diwaniyah to neighboring provinces. Camp Echo was also hit with IDF on March 28, possibly causing one fatality. Karbala -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Karbala is tense but under ISF control after a series of incidents March 26 to 27, including isolated reports of mortars and gunfire in Karbala city. ISF are responding quickly and effectively to random, poorly-planned insurgent attacks. ISF arrested a large group of insurgents 5 km south of the city center on March 27 and conducted more raids on March 28, arresting suspects carrying weapons such as AK-47s, mortars, BKCs and grenades. On March 28 Karbala IP Chief Ra'ad Jawdat announced that militants that surrended voluntarily would be given amnesty. He also reported that police killed three insurgents and arrested seven after a failed attack on an IP checkpoint near the IA base. 450 IA soldiers from Karbala are continuing to assist the GOI offensive in Basra. ISF commanders have expressed worry over the impact of the indefinite curfew on daily life in the province. Maysan -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) A local contact told the PRT that the situation in Maysan improved dramatically after the governor appeared on television March 27 and urged citizens to cooperate with the IA. The contact said that IA now control checkpoints, electricity levels have been restored, and there is normal activity in streets. Muthanna -------------- BAGHDAD 00000960 002 OF 002 ¶8. (S/NF) Muthanna remains calm, although all sides are carefully watching the outcome of conflicts in Basra and Baghdad. A cache of IEDs recently discovered by the IP underscores the potential for violence even as JAM remains fractured and leaderless. ISF have maintained control through a series of preemptive actions against known militants. Wasit -------------- ¶9. (S/NF) Wasit Provincial Council Chairman, Mohamed Hassan Jabir, told the PRT on March 28 that ISF continue to hold central Al Kut, but the uneasy calm is often broken by militia hit and run tactics in traditionally Sadrist leaning neighborhoods. ISF and U.S. officers also report general calm and an improving security situation. Provincial Sadrist Trend leaders continue to communicate regularly with PRT and maintain that the recent violence is contrary to guidance from Najaf and the individuals attacking ISF are criminals. CF officers working closely with ISF report that Iraqi leadership was effective during the last 48 hours and individual units have maintained high morale. There have been widely varying reports from local sources on the security situation in Numaniyah, and it seems control of sections of that town have changed hands several times between ISF and militia over the last 72 hours. ISF leaders are tracking the Numaniyah situation and are prepared to reinforce ISF units in the area. Mayors in Aziziyah and Al Haay report that agreements have been reached between government officials and militia to maintain calm. The recent ISF tactical successes in Al Kut have stabilized the city and ISF units continue to pursue violent militia elements. CF commanders consider the security tenuous, but do not anticipate further widescale violence in the immediate future. CROCKER