JAM CONTROLLING BAGHDAD'S SHIA NEIGHBORHOODS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000948

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IR IZ
SUBJECT: JAM CONTROLLING BAGHDAD'S SHIA NEIGHBORHOODS

Classified By: Political Counselor Matthew H. Tueller for reasons 1.4 (
b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Jaysh Al-Mahdi (JAM) militants have seized
control of many of Baghdad's Shia neighborhoods, according to
Embassy, Baghdad PRT, and Baghdad EPRT contacts. JAM has
taken over key streets and public spaces, limiting movement
between and within Shia-majority neighborhoods on both sides
of the Tigris River. They have not yet raided Sunni-majority
areas, which appear calmer than Shia and mixed-sect areas.
JAM militants have targeted Iraqi Security Forces, Coalition
Forces, and the International Zone, and they have
methodically closed many markets, schools, and shops while
reportedly implanting improvised explosive devices and
storing and stockpiling weapons and ammunition in public
places and at private businesses. Locals have not
distinguished in their reports between the actions of regular
JAM members and the Special Criminal Groups (SCGs),but we
believe that SCGs are responsible for much of the violence,
while other members of JAM and the Office of the Martyr Sadr
have heeded the public exhortations to peaceful civil
disobedience attributed to Muqtadr Al-Sadr (MAS). Even as
MAS and some of his representatives apparently call for calm,
rumors are circulating in Shia areas of Baghdad -- reportedly
initiated by some Shia imams -- that MAS has called an end to
the 'freeze' on violent attacks. END SUMMARY.

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ISF APPEARS UNPREPARED, ABANDONING CHECKPOINTS
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2. (C) A senior Iraqi Army officer as well as local contacts
have expressed serious concern about the Prime Minister's
decision to commence military operations in Basra, implying
that the Prime Minister forced the start of military
operations before the military was ready for them or even
believed them necessary. According to the same officer, the
Iraqi Army's focus on manning check points has diminished the
number of soldiers positioned to carry out military
operations, and many of its soldiers remain loyal to
militias. Numerous, credible reports indicate that some
Iraqi Police and National Police have protected or aided
militants. Iraqi Security Forces have abandoned checkpoints
around Sadr City and several neighborhoods in 9 Nissan
district.

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ACTIONS APPEAR PLANNED
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3. (C) The rapid rate at which JAM has reportedly implanted
improvised explosive devices, positioned vehicle-born
explosive devices, seized control of public and private
institutions, launched indirect fire into the International
Zone, kidnapped a key official (Tahseen Sheikhly),and
intimidated many members of the Iraqi Security Forces suggest
that their actions involved pre-meditation, and possibly
extensive planning.

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KIDNAPPING OF HIGH-PROFILE GOI SPOKESMAN
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4. (C) According to local media, the kidnapping of Tahseen
Sheikhly at his home in the Shia-majority neighborhood of
Amin in 9 Nissan district took place at approximately three
p.m. when kidnappers driving Ministry of Interior (MoI)
vehicles and dressed as IP commandos seized him and killed an
unknown number of bodyguards. Sheikhly, a Sunni, has served
as the public face of the Baghdad Security Plan for
approximately six months as the lead civilian spokesman for
Fard Al Qanoon (the Baghdad Security Plan). Sheikhly
recently began to serve as the spokesman for the
Implementation and Follow-Up Committee for National
Reconciliation (IFCNR).

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WHO IS FIGHTING WHOM IN BAGHDAD?
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5. (C) Most local contacts view the current conflagration as
an extension of the broader feud between the Sadrist Trend
and ISCI/Badr. Reports from across the city indicate that
the majority of residents are remaining at home in order to
avoid what they fear will be increasing levels of violence.
Post notes, however, that Friday mosque sermons may play an
important role in either escalating or dampening the violence
in Baghdad.
CROCKER