BASRAH/BAGHDAD SITUATION REPORT: MARCH 25-26,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000928

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/08
TAGS: MOPS PGOV PINS PTER IZ
SUBJECT: BASRAH/BAGHDAD SITUATION REPORT: MARCH 25-26,
14:00 LOCAL

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (U) The following is a situation report on Basrah,
Baghdad, and the southern provinces as of 14:00 local time,
drawn from Embassy contacts, REO Basrah, and local press
reporting.

PM Taking Control in Basrah
--------------


2. (C) At present, PM Maliki, Defense Minister Abdel Qadr,
and Interior Minister Bolani are located at Basrah Palace.
The Palace is also serving as the headquarters for National
Police forces in Basrah. While Maliki is expected to return
to Baghdad on March 27, he has been quoted as proclaiming he
will remain in Basrah "until security is restored." In this
vein, he has cancelled his trip to attend the Arab League
Summit in Damascus.


3. (C) Late March 25, Maliki was approached by a group of
Shia political figures led by Ayatollah Yaqubi (Fadhila
Party) who pleaded with him to negotiate an end to
hostilities in Basrah. The PM refused, insisting that those
resisting lay down their arms and surrender wanted militia
leaders or he would go after them. Meanwhile, local and
provincial officials remain on the sidelines, though,
according to one report, the PM agreed to meet governor Waeli
today.


4. (C) OMS in Basrah has said it is not against the security
operation but stressed that the ISF must target only militia
members who are disobeying the cease-fire. OMS has also
expressed a willingness to negotiate but called for civil
disobedience campaign beginning the afternoon of March 26 due
to rising civilian casualties.

Command and Control in Basrah
--------------


5. (C) Contrary to previous reporting of Basrah Operations
Commander General Mohan's dismissal, he currently is located
at the Basrah Operations Center (BOC) and continues to
exercise some command/control over security operations. Iraqi
Army units in Basrah are receiving direction from their
headquarters at Camp Shaibah. Basrah Disposition and number
of Forces are as follows:

--Reinforcements arriving in Basrah in the last 48 hours
include one company of ISOF, 2 IA battalions, and 2 NP
battalions (one mechanized, one Carabinieri-trained Quick
Response Force.

--One IA battalion and one IP battalion are en route to
Basrah from Karbala, ETA unknown.

--4x Iraqi medium-lift helicopters and 2x Iraqi light
helicopters are supporting operations in Basrah.

--One Iraqi C-130 departed for Basrah this morning to provide
ammunition resupply to ISF.

--MNC-I is supporting Basra with 4x AH-64s and 2x UH-60s that
will be based in Tallil. They have not engaged targets yet.

--MND-SE (UK) has a 60-minute Quick Reaction Force on call.
It consists of 14 tanks and 40 IFVs.

Basrah Security Situation Summary
--------------


6. (C) Multiple sources report JAM resistance throughout the
city, consisting of direct engagements as well as indirect
fire attacks. JAM continues to hold established defensive
positions and, according to a source from the MOI, has taken
control of provincial government offices. Local media
reports that 40 JAM fighters have been killed and more than
200 injured. MGEN JALIL is reported to have declared
entry/exit of the city closed, extended the curfew 3
additional days and has demanded that citizens turn in their
weapons. Reporting from the ISF indicates that there have
been 50 x ISF killed and 120 x ISF wounded since the start of
operation.

Situation in Southern Provinces
--------------


7. (C) The overall the situation in southern Iraq, with the
exception of Basra, is tense. On March 25, curfews were
imposed by ISF in Babil, Dhi Qar, Diwaniyah, Karbala,
Muthanna, and Wasit.


8. (C) The most serious violence outside of Basra occurred in

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Wasit province, where gunmen took to the streets and attacks
were reported against the governor's house, the governance
center and the provincial council building. Local Sadrists
have publicly expressed their support for security operations
but admitted the violence is beyond their control. The
situation in Wasit remains tense with reports of scattered
fighting in the streets. During the evening of March 25, an
Iraqi Army convoy in Maysan was attacked repeatedly and three
mortars were fired at Camp David south of Najaf.


9. (U) On March 25 the OMS office in Najaf released a
statement calling for Sadrists to "extend an olive branch" to
ISF forces and demanding an end to attacks against "our
people." The statement said if attacks continued the
Sadrists would respond first with a strike, then with a
campaign of civil disobedience, and finally with an
unspecified "third step."


10. (C) Provincial Sadrist leaders seem more willing than
their national counterparts to acquiesce to security
operations, provided ISF limit their targeting to members
violating the cease-fire. However, similar to Sadr's earlier
March statement emphasizing JAM's right to self-defense, the
call for "civil disobedience" is being interpreted by some
militants within the Sadrist trend as an excuse to abandon
the cease-fire.

Baghdad Political Summary
--------------


11. (C) In Baghdad, the Sadrist Trend announced on March 25
that it was suspending its participation in Iraq's
parliament. In a press conference Baha al-Araji and Nasar
Rubaie demanded the government stop its security operations
and release detained Sadrists. They called PM Maliki a
failure and said dialogue was the only solution to the
crisis.


12. (C) This morning Sadr City remained shut down. IA is in
control of three checkpoints into Sadr City and is allowing
people to enter, but not to leave. Other parts of the city
have returned to normal with traffic moving and shops open,
albeit less crowded and with noticeable tension. A Sadrist
Trend call for a general strike in Western Baghdad against
the GOI has spread throughout the city and has been
accompanied with multiple IDF attacks in the IZ. Local
newspapers reported on a Sadrist call for a general strike
against the ISCI/Badr controlled government, listing three
demands: 1) the cessation of the random targeting of
Sadrists; 2) release of detainees; 3) a GOI apology.


13. (C) There are unsubstantiated stories of JAM overpowering
several ISF checkpoints and disarming them. Other news
sources report of JAM attacking Badr Organization and Dawa
Party Headquarters. Another account is of JAM driving down
Palestine Street in Iraqi police cars with Sadr flags flying.
There are reports new Sadrist graffiti in mulhalla 214 Karkh
District in Western Baghdad generally declaring "we're back."



14. (C) Clashes have taken place between JAM and ISF in Sadr
City. Reports for a hospital in Sadr City indicate four
killed and 25 wounded arrived overnight. Local media reports
up to 20 JAM members killed in Sadr City. U.S. military
spokesman said two ISF were killed in an attack on a
checkpoint in Sadr City late on March 25. Coalition Forces
reinforced the checkpoint. One CF vehicle was destroyed in
Sadr City and indirect fire attacks have occurred there
overnight.


15. (C) The morning of March 25, sources inside the Shulla
neighborhood, reported of JAM ordering shops closed and other
sources claimed that mini buses were not running in Southern
Baghdad. At the time, it was business as usual in Sadr City
and Eastern Baghdad, although there was some anecdotal
evidence of greater police and Iraqi army presence on the
streets.


16. (C) 1200 local time reports started trickling in about
JAM activities in Eastern Baghdad: JAM entered markets in
New Baghdad and forced shops to shut, some schools inside
Sadr City were shut and Colonel Alaa, commander of the ISF in
Sadr City, pulled his forces from checkpoints for fear of
escalating violence he mightnot be able to control. Locally
employed staff with families in Sadr City told us that it was
unclear as to who was in control of the three
gates/checkpoints usually manned by the IA that separate Sadr
City from the rest of Rusafa (Eastern Baghdad). A local
contact told one of our POL FSNs that JAM has initiated
clashes and mortar fire in the Zayyouna neighborhood (near
Sadr City).


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17. (C) Baghdad PRT contacted Sadr City Mayor Muhamad
Al-Maliki for an on the ground assessment. The Mayor
commented that the situation on the ground was tense and
confrontational.
CROCKER