MONEY, DEATH, AND LIES: SHIA MODERATE ON SOUTHERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000692

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: MONEY, DEATH, AND LIES: SHIA MODERATE ON SOUTHERN
POLITICS, ELECTIONS

Classified By: Acting Deputy Political Counselor Martin Dale for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a March 6 meeting with Poloff, Sheikh Abid Faisal
identified positive and negative aspects to the prospect of
provincial elections. Although he acknowledged public
appetite for governmental change, he said the power of the
religious parties made it likely they would consolidate their
power in the south. Nevertheless, Faisal said he and a group
of 13 prominent southern sheikhs are considering forming an
independent coalition to compete in the elections. Faisal
said the group is meeting with Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, the
Anbari Sunni leader of the Iraqi Awakening (SAI) movement, to
exchange strategies and discuss the possibility of forming a
slate of Sunni and Shi'a candidates.


2. (C) Faisal bemoaned the current state of southern
politics, saying it characterized by "money, death, and
lies." He added that rural to urban migration, combined with
the flight of many local intellectuals and leaders, have led
to the dominance of uneducated and inexperienced politicians
in local government. He said tension was growing between the
political parties in Dhi Qar and predicted that Da'wa and the
Sadr Trend would form an alliance to compete against ISCI in
the next elections. Faisal added that "70-80 percent" of
southern Shi'a oppose ISCI's plan for a nine governorate
southern region, explaining that people opposed the idea of
Najaf becoming the capital of the south and feared federalism
as the first step to partition. He said the marja'iyya has
retained its influence, partly through financial support to
key individuals, civic organizations, and charities, and
expressed worry that the marja'iyya would intervene in the
elections by instructing Shi'a how to vote.


3. (C) On the subject of Iran, Faisal warned that Tehran was
increasing its influence on the southern Shi'a. He urged the
U.S. to increase its humanitarian and development assistance
in the south, saying public perception of the U.S. would
affect the willingness of Shi'a voters to support independent
and secular candidates. POLOFF promised to arrange a meeting
between the sheikh and PRT Dhi Qar to discuss project ideas.


4. (C) Bio notes: Faisal (DOB 7/1/49) is a landowner from
Nasiriyah and holds the title of sheikh. Following the
overthrow of Saddam, Faisal worked with Samir al-Sumaydi,
currently the Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S., to establish the
secular Shi'a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) party, and
Faisal served in the Transitional National Assembly as a
representative of the NDA. The NDA failed to win any seats
in the 2005 elections.
CROCKER