AYATOLLAH HUSSEIN AL-SADR ON IRAQ'S POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000583 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: AYATOLLAH HUSSEIN AL-SADR ON IRAQ'S POLITICAL MALAISE REF: 07 BAGHDAD 3974 (DEPSEC MEETS HUSSEIN AL-SADR) Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 27 dinner meeting held in his house adjacent to Baghdad's Kadhimiyah Shia shrine, Ayatollah Hussein al-Sadr lamented to the Ambassador that Iraq is poorly led by its political class, warned that Arab-Kurd tensions are increasing, and complained of markedly increasing interference by neighboring states -- particularly Iran -- in Iraq's affairs. He asserted that Prime Minister Maliki is a strong leader with a nationalist vision, but is ill-served by incompetent ministers (mostly political party operatives who should be replaced by skilled technocrats) and weak advisors. Ordinary Iraqis are running out of patience with the GOI's failure to deliver basic services, particularly in the provinces, and could stage a "people's Intifadah" if things do not soon improve. The white-bearded and black-turbaned cleric cautioned that, in light of GOI weakness, provincial elections and implementation of the law on region formation will only add to the country's many woes. Identifying unemployment as Iraq's major social problem, Hussein al-Sadr spoke about his efforts to develop vocational training centers in impoverished neighborhoods to provide young Shia men an alternative to recruitment into militias such as the Jaysh al-Mehdi headed by his second cousin, Muqtada al-Sadr. He also briefed on his engagement with tribal and religious leaders, noting that Iraq could use advisory councils comprised of tribal sheikhs and religious scholars. End Summary. Politicians Worse Here Than Elsewhere -------------- ¶2. (C) The meeting took place in a book-lined room of Hussein al-Sadr's home in the north-east Baghdad neighborhood of Kadhimiyah, a Shia area over which the Jaysh al-Mehdi (JAM) of Muqtada al-Sadr (an estranged second cousin) reportedly holds significant sway. The area was also the scene of several IED attacks, one of them fatal, against Coalition forces in recent days. Sadr is the nominal head of the Kadhimiyah shrine, a structure dating to the 16th century and the burial site of Shia Islam's seventh and ninth Imams. In a sign of the times, however, the moderate Hussein al-Sadr -- who is close to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani -- reportedly shares control of the shrine with senior Sadrist Trend official Hazim al-Araji, who read Muqtada's JAM freeze extension order from the shrine pulpit as part of a February 22 sermon. ¶3. (C) Heavily perfumed and showing no lingering effects of a stroke he suffered last year, the spry and gracious septuagenarian Sadr opened the two and one-half hour meeting with an extended tribute to joint Iraqi and American efforts to remove a dictatorship and establish a society based on laws and a constitution, and in which human rights and dignity are upheld and respected. He ripped repeatedly into Iraq's politicians, stating that they are out of touch with ordinary Iraqis and interested mainly in pursuing their narrow and often sectarian-based interests. When the Ambassador observed that many countries are beset with a bad political class, Sadr retorted that the Iraqi variant is particularly bad since it lacks a popular base and is quick to exploit sectarianism as a tool to grasp power. Sadr exhorted the USG to increase contact with Iraqis from outside political circles, since politicians never tell us the truth about Iraq's reality and only speak to enhance their interests. ¶4. (C) Sadr maintained that Maliki is a strong leader with a nationalist vision, but is held back by an incompetent cabinet and weak advisors. He said Sistani advised Maliki several months ago to sack his ministers, most of whom lack specialized knowledge about their portfolios and were selected solely on the basis of party affiliation, and replace them with skilled and experienced technocrats. Sadr urged the USG to reinforce this message and push the process along. Ordinary Iraqis, particularly in the provinces, are growing increasingly angry and frustrated over GOI inability to deliver services or economic growth which creates jobs: unless the situation improves, he warned, Iraq may witness a "people's Intifadah." Common people have no trust in politicians and are losing trust in religious leaders, a dangerous development. The Ambassador observed that the USG is working closely with the GOI to improve the delivery of public services to reinforce the improvements we continue to make together in security. ¶5. (C) Sadr said he had met recently with Sunni tribal leaders and other non-Kurdish group representatives of Ninewah province who complained bitterly about Kurdish aggression and depredations in Mosul and elsewhere in the BAGHDAD 00000583 002 OF 002 province. Such conduct has also taken place in Kirkuk and parts of Diyala. The Kurds suffered under Saddam, but that is not a justification for their conduct today. He urged the USG to pressure the Kurds to contribute more to national reconciliation, claiming that the Kurds derive all of their strength from USG support. Describing President Talabani as a personal friend, he was nevertheless critical of Talabani's recent visit to Najaf which was conducted "almost as if he was making a state visit to a foreign nation." In an apparent reference to Article 140 application in Kirkuk and elsewhere in the north, Sadr stated that Iraq is currently too weak and the situation too turbulent to deal with new and difficult issues that will sidetrack the nation. If Iraq goes forward on this issue, he continued, it should do so on the basis of a 1957 census that pre-dates Arab transmigration to disputed areas. The Ambassador said that he will urge UN SRSG de Mistura to visit Sadr and explain his ideas about reducing Arab-Kurd tension in the north. ¶6. (C) Sadr asserted that GOI weakness also makes it likely that upcoming provincial elections will only add to Iraq's many problems. Similarly, formation of regions would be a major setback for Iraqi unity in light of Iraq's weak central government: it will invite Iranian domination of any Shia-majority region and possible Saudi hegemony over a Sunni region. The time is not ripe for region formation, he asserted, and further study should be given to this issue and the larger matter of federalism. Jabbing once again at political parties, he said that ISCI and the Sadrists do what they please without any GOI reaction, adding that no Shia or Sunni party truly represents the people. Educated people are marginalized by such parties. Pointing out that Islam in practice is based on service to humanity and that Islam in theory can be dangerous, Sadr said representatives of purportedly Islam-based parties such as Dawa and ISCI replied in silence when he demanded that they show him the Islam in their parties. Iraq is in need of a new political current, he continued, but there is nothing in sight. Returning repeatedly to the need for increased national unity and sense of nationalism and a stronger central government, Sadr said the Iraqi army and police are getting better. Iraq's neighbors have not been helpful, he continued, and Iran in particular has markedly increased its interference in Iraqi affairs over the past two years. The worst outcome for Iraq would be for Shia Islam to fall into Iranian hands. The Ambassador noted that Iran fails to see that a stable and democratic Iraq is in its interests. ¶7. (C) Sporting the distinctive black turban that identifies him as a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, Sadr identified unemployment as Iraq's major social problem and said the unemployment rate in some provincial areas runs as high as 90 percent. To remedy this situation and to save Shia youth from recruitment by militias and extremists, Sadr has established a charitable organization that, among other things, publishes books for children on a variety of Islamic and social issues, operates centers to promote dialogues and runs vocational training institutes in impoverished neighborhoods to teach job skills to young Shia men. In Sadr City alone, the organization operates 16 such job training centers. The Ambassador expressed appreciation for such efforts and offered USG assistance. Sadr mentioned that, in the context of his organization's efforts, he engages frequently with tribal and religious leaders from across the ethno-sectarian divide, noting that Iraq would be well served by advisory councils comprised of tribal sheikhs, notables, and religious scholars. CROCKER