BAGHDAD: RIVALRY HEATS UP AMONG SHIA PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000575 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PTER KDEM IZ SUBJECT: BAGHDAD: RIVALRY HEATS UP AMONG SHIA PARTIES REF: A. BAGHDAD 354 - BAGHDAD PC CHAIRMAN FIGHTS TO STAY ON TOP ¶B. 2007 BAGHDAD 1536 - HOW SADRISTS TOOK SADR CITY COUNCIL Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Over 75 percent of Baghdad's ISCI-dominated Provincial Council (PC) voted February 19 to dismiss Baghdad's three Deputy Mayors, one of whom was the highest-ranking Sadrist in Baghdad's city government. PC members announced publicly that the Amanat needs more "effort and efficiency" from its Deputy Mayors. Privately, PC members and the Baghdad Governor informed PRToffs that they fired the Deputy Mayors because of their corrupt practices. The timing and manner of this decision, however, taken less than a week after the Council of Representatives set a target date for provincial elections, suggest a political power play by ISCI and Dawa to strengthen their position vis--vis the Sadrists in the run up to provincial elections. The two non-Sadrist Deputy Mayors appear to be collateral victims, possibly dismissed in order to buttress the claim that the PC action was disinterested, based on poor performance rather than political calculations. If ISCI and Dawa PC members do not replace one of the fired Deputy Mayors with another Sadrist, they may have ended the delicate political truce that they have maintained with the Sadrists in Baghdad since ¶2006. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. -------------- PROVINCIAL COUNCIL SUDDENLY FIRES BAGHDAD'S THREE DEPUTY MAYORS -------------- ¶2. (C) Baghdad's ISCI-dominated Provincial Council (PC) voted February 19 by margins of 33 to 9, 34 to 8, and 32 to 10 to dismiss, respectively, each of Baghdad's three Deputy Mayors -- Naeem Aboub Al-Kaby (Sadrist),Attiya Al-Ugaili (ISCI) and Ibrahim Mustafa Hussein (unaffiliated). The firings took place a week after a PC plenary session which assigned Essential Services Committee Chairman Kamel Al-Zaidi (Dawa) to investigate the performance of all three Deputy Mayors. Zaidi spent about five days investigating the Deputies' performance and compiling his report. He concluded that they had not performed "efficiently" and recommended their dismissal. PC members voted overwhelmingly in favor of his recommendation. The Deputy Mayors were not present for the report's presentation or for the vote, and the PC did not offer them a chance to defend their records or appeal their dismissals. (NOTE: Only 42 of the PC's 51 members were present for the vote. END NOTE.) -------------- PUBLIC EXPLANATION STRESSES EFFICIENCY -------------- ¶3. (U) Zaidi, who spoke to the press on behalf of the PC, told the Al-Distour newspaper and As-Sabah media network February 24 that the PC removed these officials because the Amanat needs "more effort and efficiency." He said that Mayor Saber Al-Assawi will appoint new Deputies from within the Amanat "who are impartial and efficient." As a legal justification for its actions, the PC invoked CPA Order 71, which stipulates that a two-thirds majority of the Provincial Council may remove the Mayor or Deputy Mayors for "misconduct, inefficiency or Baathist Party affiliation." -------------- PRIVATE EXPLANATIONS EMPHASIZE CORRUPTION -------------- ¶4. (C) Baghdad Governor Hussein Al-Tahan (ISCI) told PRToff February 24 that the PC fired the Deputies in order to rid Baghdad of under-performing officials, not to further the interests of ISCI and Dawa. (NOTE: The two largest parties on the 51-member Baghdad PC are ISCI (28 members) and Dawa (11 members). END NOTE.) Ali Dabagh, Chief of Staff to PC Chairman Mueen Al-Majid (ISCI) (reftel A),also insisted that the PC acted on the merits of each case, stressing that PC members had complained for a long time about the corrupt practices of Kaby, the Sadrist Deputy Mayor. Other PC members from ISCI and Dawa offered the same explanation to PRToffs. As evidence that PC members did not vote along political party lines, Dabagh cited for PRToff the fact that the PC's leading Sadrist -- Mohan Al-Saidi, Deputy PC Chairman -- had voted with the majority. (NOTE: The Sadrists boycotted the 2005 provincial elections, but Saidi ran for the PC as a member of the Sadrist-affiliated National Independent Cadres and Elites party. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) The PC's only Sunni member, Sobhe Mashadani (Communist Party),concurred with the assessment offered by ISCI and Dawa officials, informing PRToff that the PC acted BAGHDAD 00000575 002 OF 003 to remove Kaby in particular because his corruption has long impeded the Amanat's ability to provide essential services in Baghdad. (NOTE: Residents of Sadr City have complained frequently of Kaby's corruption to Embassy officers, noting that he has conspicuously enriched himself during his stint as Deputy Mayor (reftel B). END NOTE.) -------------- FIRED SADRIST DEPUTY APPEALS TO CoR MEMBERS -------------- ¶6. (C) Kaby told PRToff February 27 that "this is not over." He has brought the issue to the Council of Ministers, he said, and claimed that the final decision now rests in their hands. He has also requested support from Sadrist members of the Council of Representatives (CoR),and PC members report that he plans to approach Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki to protest his dismissal. Several PC members, however, claim that Maliki knew of the firings ahead of time -- and that he approved them. When asked how the PC might respond to attempts by Kaby to rally support from Sadrists, PC Member Nazar Al-Sultani (ISCI) told PRToff, "If there is a reaction by the Sadrists, we'll just have to crush it and move on." (NOTE: Mashadani reported that one PC member, Kamel Al Shabibi (ISCI),initially insisted on a secret vote in order to protect PC members from possible retribution. The PC members present initially agreed but then rallied and called for a public vote through a show of hands. END NOTE.) -------------- - WAS IT REALLY ABOUT EFFICIENCY AND CORRUPTION? -------------- - ¶7. (C) Two of Baghdad's prominent local politicians described the firings as "election activity." Former Governor Ali Fadhel told PRToff February 25 that he believes ISCI orchestrated the dismissals in order to strengthen its position vis--vis the Sadrists in the run up to provincial elections. Karada District Council (DAC) Chairman Mohamed Al-Rubaie also described this move to PRToff as the first salvo in the provincial elections campaign. Fadhel noted that the PC can easily prove the skeptics wrong by replacing Kaby with another Sadrist. (NOTE: The Karada DAC recently elected Rubaie as Chairman for the fourth year in a row. During 2007, Rubaie often served as the spokesman for all of Baghdad's DAC Chairmen. END NOTE.) -------------- OR WAS IT ELECTION POLITICS, PURE AND SIMPLE? -------------- ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The timing and manner of these dismissals support the hypothesis of Fadhel and Rubaie that the firings were a naked power play. PC members, Directors General, DAC members, and residents of Sadr City repeatedly complained during 2006 and 2007 about Kaby's corrupt practices. PC leadership took no action. Then, less than a week after the CoR announced the target date for provincial elections, ISCI and Dawa PC members orchestrated the firing of Kaby, the highest-ranking Sadrist in Baghdad's city government. Rather than speak to the press, the Mayor or PC members in the aftermath of the February 19 firings, PC Chairman Mueen Al-Kadimy left Baghdad for Karbala on February 20 and did not return for four days. PC members who remained in Baghdad to explain their decision barely mentioned the performance of the other two fired Deputy Mayors, Ugaili and Hussein, thus lending credence to the perception that these two were collateral victims -- possibly dismissed in order to buttress the claim that the PC acted based on performance rather than political calculations in firing the Sadrist Deputy. PRToffs report that Hussein, in particular, is a knowledgeable and experienced technocrat without political affiliation, and note that Ugaili is not politically active, despite his ties to ISCI. -------------- --- FIRINGS MAY INTENSIFY RIVALRY AMONG SHIA PARTIES -------------- --- ¶10. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: Unless PC members replace Kaby with another Sadrist, this firing will likely intensify the political jockeying among Shia parties at the provincial level in Baghdad. Through this aggressive maneuver, ISCI and Dawa may have ended the delicate political truce they have maintained with the Sadrists since 2006. The ISCI-dominated PC appointed and tolerated as Deputy Mayor a well-known Sadrist -- Kaby -- in part to maintain the Shia political party balance in Baghdad after the Sadrists boycotted the 2005 provincial elections. ISCI PC members may have taken this gamble in order to provide themselves with a credible defense when the electorate holds them accountable for the poor quality of essential services: "The Deputies are largely to blame, and we fired them." BAGHDAD 00000575 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) COMMENT CONT'D: This strategy, however, may also backfire politically for ISCI, as it has already placed political pressure on Mayor Saber, a leading ISCI politician who had to approve the firings of his Deputies. Kaby himself indicated to PRToff February 27 that he holds the Mayor responsible for failing to defend him. Amanat officials told PRToffs that Saber offered on February 24 to hire Kaby as his own advisor, in order to assuage Kaby and the Sadrists. Several PC members, however, insisted that the PC would not allow Saber to re-hire Kaby as his own advisor. PRT contacts in the PC heard rumors February 25 that Saber may now leave ISCI and join the Sadrists, whom he reportedly believes will win the provincial elections. At the same time, the firings have substantially improved Kaby's public profile: television channels and newspapers reported his name nationwide for two days. CROCKER