IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE PART 3: TIMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000450

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE PART 3: TIMING

REF: A. O/I 2/10

B. O/I 2/12

C. BAGHDAD 221

D. BAGHDAD 333

Classified By: Acting Deputy Political Counselor Richard H. Riley for r
easons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Passage of "The Law of the Governorates Not
Organized Into a Region (Provincial Powers)" on February 13
has set into motion a timetable for holding provincial
elections in Iraq this year. While we believe the elections
deadline as outlined in the law is overly ambitious given its
timing during Ramadan, it does put provincial elections at
the political forefront, which increases the likelihood they
could be held before the end of 2008. The United Nations
Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has adjusted its own
timetable for providing technical assistance to reflect the
accelerated pace outlined in the law, and we will work
closely with the international community to apply diplomatic
pressure where needed to ensure credible elections will be
held this year. This is the third in a series of cables
describing the process and preparations for holding
provincial elections, as well as a probable timetable for
events that must occur before provincial elections can be
held. End Summary.


2. (U) This cable draws from conversations held with the
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI),the
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES),and the
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).

AMBITIOUS TIMING
--------------


3. (C) On February 13 the Iraqi Council of Representatives
(CoR) passed "The Law of the Governorates Not Organized Into
a Region (Provincial Powers)". This set into motion a
timetable for holding provincial elections this year.
Article 55 (First) states, "The Council of Representatives
shall legislate the Councils Election Law that will be formed
according to this law within a period of 90 days from the
date on which the law was approved by the Council of
Representative." According to this article, an elections law
must be passed by the CoR by May 14. Also, Article 55
(Second) states, "The elections of the new councils shall be
held no later than October 1, 2008." Because the month of
Ramadan will begin on or about September 2 and the three-day
Eid-al-Fitr holiday will begin on or about October 1, we
believe this timetable is ambitious. We believe a more
plausible scenario would be provincial elections occurring
sometime between October 5 and November 20. Iraqis will begin
traveling to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj towards the end of
November with Eid-al-Adha holidays beginning on or about
December 8.

PROBABLE TIMELINE
--------------


4. (C) The CoR is now in recess and will return in
mid-March, reaching quorum strength with the return of the
Kurds on March 21. By then, it will have less than 60 days
to pass an election law. We are working closely with the
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) to
provide a team of legislative drafting experts to assist
members of the CoR in crafting a well-thought-out law. In
addition, we have developed an inter-embassy elections
roundtable to engage with key foreign missions in Baghdad in
an effort to increase diplomatic pressure to ensure
provincial elections will be held in 2008. At the same time,
IFES' work on converting the Public Distribution System (PDS
-- the food rations database) into a draft voter registry
will be complete and ready for vetting in the provinces once
an elections law is passed. At that time, the draft voter
registry will be distributed to the provinces for the
four-week display period, which will end on approximately
June 14. Any corrections to the draft registry will be
collected and sent to the Independent High Electoral
Commission (IHEC) for updating. (Note: During the voter
registration period in the run-up to the 2005 elections, IFES
reported approximately 1.1 million updates were submitted.
End Note) UNAMI estimates that updating and reprinting the
voter registry will take approximately 90 days, bringing us
to approximately September 13. IFES, however, believes the
timing could be shortened by several weeks with the voter
registry ready as soon as early September.

SO MUCH TO DO, SO LITTLE TIME
--------------


5. (C) Because the Provincial Powers law requires an
election law be passed within 90 days and provincial
elections held before October 1, the Special Representative

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of the Secretary General (SRSG) Staffan de Mistura decided to
alter his original plan to clean house in the Governorate
Electoral Offices (GEO) by having all GEO managers and staff
effectively dismissed by not renewing their contracts (ref A
and B). He changed his focus, deciding instead to assist
IHEC in hiring the remaining eight GEO managers (ref C),
adding an extra UN-endorsed step to the process. (Note:
Eight GEO director positions have remained vacant while the
CoR has wrestled with the political volatility surrounding
the appointments. Previous reporting stated seven vacancies
remained due to the interim appointment of the Wassit GEO
director. End Note) De Mistura set a 43-day timeline for
the UN to vet applications for the remaining eight GEO
managers positions for Ninewah, Karbala, Najaf, Diyala,
Wassit, Basra and Baghdad (which is allotted two GEO slots).
The top 10-15 applicants selected through the UNAMI process
will then be passed to the CoR for its selection of five
candidates to be submitted to IHEC. IHEC will then make the
final selection of the candidate to fill each of these
remaining eight GEO manager positions. This process should
be completed by March 28 and allow all GEO managers and staff
to be trained when the election law is passed.



6. (C) Depending on available funding, and concurrent with
passage of the election law and updating of the voter
registry, the State Department-funded partner institutes
operating in Iraq, including the International Republican
Institute (IRI),National Democratic Institute (NDI) and
International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX) will begin
planning voter education campaigns, campaign training for
political parties, selection and fielding of elections
monitors and support to media outlets. IFES will also
continue working on capacity building with IHEC and GEO
managers and staff on elections preparations and public
outreach. In addition, UNAMI has brought in a security
expert who is consulting with IHEC on developing a security
plan for the voter registry update period and election day.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) With the passage of the Provincial Powers law,
provincial elections are now at the forefront of the Iraqi
political agenda. Article 55 includes a compressed
legislative timetable for holding elections. We find it
ambitious, if only because the projected October 1 election
date falls during the month of Ramadan and would even overlap
with the Eid holidays. All stakeholders in the Iraqi
electoral process will have to move quickly to pass an
election law, register newly emerging political parties and
candidates, determine polling locations, and design security
plans. Iraqi organizations working like clockwork is not
something we have come to expect. However with a coordinated
diplomatic effort in addition to the work being done by
UNAMI, IFES, IRI, NDI and IREX, it is conceivable that
elections could be held before the end of 2008. End Comment.
CROCKER