ALI AL-ADEEB CONFIRMS THAT DA'WA WILL SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000044 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: ALI AL-ADEEB CONFIRMS THAT DA'WA WILL SUPPORT DE-BAATH LAW Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Ellen Germain for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Ali al-Adeeb, the Da'wa party bloc leader at the CoR, told us January 2 that Da'wa would support the Accountability and Justice Law (i.e., the de-Ba'athification Law) when it comes to a vote, adding that Da'wa would like to see the law amended -- not for substantive reasons, but to persuade the Sadrists that their participation in the parliamentary debate had been worthwhile. He said any amendments would be previewed by Vice President (VP) Tariq al-Hashimi before the law is brought to a vote, so as to ensure that the VP will not veto the law on the grounds that it deviates from what Iraqi leaders agreed to on August 26. Al-Adeeb revealed that Tawafuq CoR member Ayyad Sammaraie vigorously opposed the December 24 agreement between Hashimi and the Kurdish Alliance, thereby furthering the competition between the two Sunni leaders. ¶2. (C) Asked whether the Awakening Movement (aka, Sahwa) would likely evolve as a rival to Tawafuq or be assimilated into the Sunni coalition, al-Adeeb confidently predicted that Sahwa would emerge as an alternative to Tawafuq. However, he argued that the current balance of power between Sahwa and the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) in Anbar Province is unsustainable. "Without new provincial elections, Sahwa will not be able to consolidate the power it has gained," said al-Adeeb. He observed that a provincial election in Anbar would serve both to empower Sahwa at IIP's expense, and to moderate Tawafuq's behavior at the national level (on the grounds that, after being chastened in the provincial election, Tawafuq would take a more cooperative line with respect to the central government in order to avoid being routed by Sahwa at the national level). ¶3. (C) Al-Adeeb reacted coldly to the message that the CoR should dispense with its scheduled February holiday, having already taken a lengthy break in December for hajj/eid. He insisted that the time taken off in December should not count, because the CoR had dispensed with its regular 3-day work week in November and had met daily. CROCKER